Important security note: Warning of attempted fraud in the name of DWS
We have detected that fraudulent individuals are misusing the "DWS" trademark and the names of DWS employees on the internet and social media. These fraudsters are operating fake websites, Facebook pages, WhatsApp groups and Mobile Apps. Please be aware that DWS does not have any Facebook Ambassador profiles or WhatsApp chats. If you receive any unexpected calls, messages, or emails claiming to be from DWS, exercise caution and do not make any payments or disclose personal information. We encourage you to report any suspicious activity to info@dws.com, including any relevant documents and the original fraudulent email. Additionally, if you believe you have been a victim of fraud, please notify your local authorities and take steps to protect yourself.
4/30/2025
Weekly Edition
Index definitions: Global Real Estate = FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Developed Index; Global Infrastructure = Dow Jones Brookfield Global Infrastructure Index; Natural Resource Equities = S&P Global Natural Resources Index; Commodity Futures = Bloomberg Commodity Index; TIPS = Barclays US TIPS Index; Global Equities = MSCI World Index; Real Assets Index = 30% FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Developed Index, 30% Dow Jones Brookfield Global Infrastructure Index; 15% S&P Global Natural Resources Index; 15% Bloomberg Commodity Index, 10% Barclays TIPS Index. Source: Bloomberg, DWS. Past performance is not indicative of future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
Markets continued to claw their way back after touching year-to-date lows on April 8th. De-escalating U.S. rhetoric on tariffs has brightened the mood, with talk of off-ramps and trade deals helping to fuel a comeback in equities. Easing the impact of auto levies is Trump's latest move to demonstrate some flexibility, whilst a report the U.S. had been proactively reaching out to China through various channels raised hopes that trade talks may prove constructive. The Fed and the IMF/World Bank have helped underpin the recent rally. Despite a contraction in the U.S. economy at the start of the year, investors are pinning their hopes on Fed rate cuts to sidestep a potential U.S. recession, whilst the IMF took a slightly more optimistic view of the economic fallout from the U.S. tariffs, cutting growth forecasts in its World Economic Outlook but stopping far short of predicting recessions. Nonetheless, sentiment remains fragile as reflected in the wild intra-day swings in markets throughout April. As the clock steadily ticks down on the 90-day pause Trump had granted on the steepest levies, trade negotiation outcomes remain highly uncertain, weighing heavily on the outlook and investor sentiment. Yields also remain elevated amid lingering concerns that tariffs could hurt foreign demand for U.S. debt and raise inflation.
Against this backdrop, we expect conditions to remain choppy as investors await key macro data, trade deals, and earnings to guide their next moves.
Global Equities outperformed the Real Asset Index as technology, consumer discretionary, and communications sectors outperformed the broader market. Global Real Estate Securities, Global Infrastructure, and U.S. TIPS (inflation-protected securities) outperformed the Real Asset Index in the period while Natural Resource Equities marginally underperformed on a relative basis, despite providing positive returns. Commodity Futures was the only segment to post negative returns in the period as the Industrial Metals, Energy, Agriculture, and Livestock segments retreated. Looking at other metrics we track, the VIX, an index that measures the expected volatility of U.S. stocks, ended the period at 24.7, down 13% from the prior week, settling down 53% from its peak of 52 on April 8th. Credit spreads recorded modest increases as below-investment grade spreads widened 7 basis points (bps), a 2% move, and high yield spreads widened 2 bps, a 1.5% move. The U.S. dollar weakened 0.4%, as measured by the DXY Index, and oil prices also fell below $60 per barrel, ending the period at $58.2 per barrel. Inflation expectations were lower, as measured by 5 & 10-year breakevens, which fell 4 bps and 7 bps, respectively. Gold prices were steady, ending the period at an elevated $3,289/ounce.[1]
Why it matters: We continue to monitor economic data, as well as sentiment indicators, as they could eventually feed through to the hard data. Capital markets and corporate leaders have clearly voiced their displeasure about uncertainty and the possibility for a protracted trade battle and the damaging effect that these could have on the economy.
This week we will review the latest Q1 GDP (gross domestic product) data from several countries, the U.S. March personal consumption data will be published, including much-watched inflation figures, and the latest U.S. labor market report will round off a busy week.
Real Assets, Real Insights: This week we will look at the impact of political instability on France’s real estate market, Europe’s long-term attractiveness as an infrastructure market, and the U.S. and Ukraine’s minerals deal.