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21/2/2025
Germany struggles on many fronts. This uncertainty could be exacerbated if we see protracted coalition negotiations following an inconclusive election result.
As the German election approaches on the 23rd of February, the political environment is being heavily influenced by the rather weak economic situation in which the country finds itself. The German economy has been stagnant for five years. In the fourth quarter of 2024, Germany's output was slightly below that of the fourth quarter of 2019. That puts Germany at the back of the pack among Europe's major economies in terms of economic growth.
Our Chart of the Week shows the 30-day polling averages since December 2020. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian ally, the Christian Social Union (CSU) - together known as the Christian Democrats – have been polling between 28% and 34%. Social Democrats (SPD) and Greens are both in the mid-double digits, making it unclear whether Christian Democrats could command a coalition majority with only one of the two. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has made significant gains, capitalizing on strong populist rhetoric and criticism of the European Union (EU). AfD is now hovering around 20%. The race for influence is further complicated by several smaller parties, including The Left, the new populist “Bündnis Sarah Wagenknecht” (BSW) and the liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP), which are all too close to call to the critical 5% threshold needed to secure representation in the Bundestag.[1]
Source(s): wahlrecht.de as of 02/18/2025
Elections come as Germany struggles on many fronts. Since the pandemic, Germany's recovery has lagged behind other major economies due to low labor force participation, stagnant productivity, and insufficient public investment. This uncertainty could be exacerbated if we see protracted coalition negotiations following an inconclusive election result. Conversely, the quick formation of a new government led by the Christian Democrats could have a positive impact on market sentiment, as it might highlight economic and political stability. However, lasting effects will depend on the new government's ability to implement deregulatory measures, address labor force dynamics and stimulate investment, especially if major compromises are required during coalition talks. Investors and market participants will be watching closely for the election's impact on fiscal policy direction, infrastructure initiatives, and broader European stability.
The 5% threshold, however, is not always critical. Alternatively, parties can also get in and participate in the proportionate distribution of seats by having their candidates winning a plurality in three constituencies. For further details, see: https://www.dws.com/insights/cio-view/macro/germanys-election-what-should-we-expect/
This information is subject to change at any time, based upon economic, market and other considerations and should not be construed as a recommendation. DWS does not intend to promote a particular outcome to the German election due to take place in 2/23/2025. Readers should, of course, vote in the election as they personally see fit. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models that may prove to be incorrect. Alternative investments may be speculative and involve significant risks including illiquidity, heightened potential for loss and lack of transparency. Alternatives are not suitable for all clients.
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