Week to date since September 16, 2026 as of September 23, 2026

^{Index definitions: Global Real Estate = FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Developed Index; Global Infrastructure = Dow Jones Brookfield Global Infrastructure Index; Natural Resource Equities = S&P Global Natural Resources Index; Commodity Futures = Bloomberg Commodity Index; TIPS = Barclays US TIPS Index; Global Equities = MSCI World Index; Real Assets Index = 30% FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Developed Index, 30% Dow Jones Brookfield Global Infrastructure Index; 15% S&P Global Natural Resources Index; 15% Bloomberg Commodity Index, 10% Barclays TIPS Index. Source: Bloomberg, DWS. Past performance is not indicative of future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.}

Market commentary

Bond yields have become a focal point while the U.S. and Iran continued to stare each other down to see who would yield. A mix of resilient growth and continued Middle East tensions, coupled with questions over the scale of monetary tightening, pushed global yields toward multi-decade highs and the U.S. Treasury 30-year yield to hit its highest level since 2004.  Brent prices fluctuated on the whims of negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, which remained deadlocked over sanctions and freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Severe pressure in refined products raised speculation that the U.S. could restrict diesel exports. At the same time, the U.S. September’s flash PMIs (Purchasing Managers’ Index) materially exceeded expectations, while the Eurozone gauge reached a more than three-year high. The Eurozone data showed stronger activity, as well as employment and price pressures which reinforced the higher-for-longer policy narrative. Treasury yields rose sharply, led by an increase in five-year yields following a weak auction, while the 10-year moved comfortably above 5%. Bund yields exceeded 3.5%, and French spreads widened amid mounting fiscal and political concerns with far-right Le Pen threatening a government shutdown. Although markets increasingly appear to be pricing a full tightening cycle, part of the short-end selloff may reflect the disorderly unwinding of crowded yield-curve steepeners rather than a wholesale reassessment of central-bank policy. Ultimately, however, the outlook still comes down to oil and geopolitics: a prolonged energy shock could force central banks to tighten more aggressively, amplifying the damage to interest-rate-sensitive activity even as higher rates do little to resolve the underlying supply disruption.^[1]​

​In the period, broader global equities outperformed real assets. Global equity performance was supported by strength in the Technology, Industrials, and Health Care sectors. Conversely, the Utilities, Energy, and Financials sectors underperformed the most. Within Real Assets, the Commodity Futures outperformed with positive returns. Conversely, the U.S. TIPS (U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities), Commodity Futures, Global Real Estate, and Natural Resource Equities outperformed the real asset index on a relative basis, while Global Infrastructure underperformed the most. Across other market indicators for the period, the VIX, a measure of 30-day expected stock market volatility, fell 14% to end the period at 15.2. Breakeven yields, a measure of implied inflation, rose 1 basis point (bp) in the 5-year and 10-year segments. Gold prices rose 0.6% to end at $4,263/ounce. Oil prices fell 5.5% to end the period at $92.16/barrel. The U.S. dollar strengthened 0.8% against major trading partners in the period. Credit spreads tightened 1 bp for investment grade credits and widened 2 bps for the high yield space.^[1]​

Why it matters: The macro environment remained resilient in the U.S., but monetary policy looks to be tightening… but how far? We continue to monitor the data to see if changing monetary and fiscal policy and political tensions will prove to be a major stumbling block for the trajectory of the global economy. 

This week we will review the latest indicators from Asia, Europe, and the U.S.

• Asia: September flash PMIs showed diverging momentum across the region. Australia’s Composite PMI fell to 50.8 from 52.7, as manufacturing moved into contraction and weaker demand, declining export orders and cautious hiring weighed on confidence. By contrast, India’s Composite PMI rose to 56.5 from 54.3, supported by broad-based domestic demand, stronger manufacturing and services activity, continued employment growth, and easing overall input-cost inflation.^[2]​,^[3]​
• Europe/Eurozone: Eurozone business activity remained resilient despite higher energy prices, with the Composite PMI rising to a three-and-a-half-year high of 53.1 from 52.0 as new orders and backlogs improved. Germany led the expansion, with its Composite PMI increasing to 53.8 from 51.8 amid stronger services, investment and external demand, while France returned to expansion at 51.2 from 48.5. In France, services-led the rebound, while weaker manufacturing and continued political and fiscal uncertainty pointed to a less convincing recovery.^[2]​
• U.S.: U.S. private-sector activity strengthened markedly in September, with the flash Composite PMI rising to 58.4, its highest since July 2021. Services PMI and manufacturing PMI advanced to 58.7 and 57.0, respectively. Robust demand drove the strongest employment growth in more than four years, but also intensified capacity constraints, with input-price inflation reaching its highest since 2022 amid higher fuel, transport and wage costs, alongside worsening supplier delays, labor shortages, and supply-chain bottlenecks.^[2]​

Real Assets, Real Insights: This week  we look at Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) capital market access in Mexico, permitting and power difficulty for AI data centers, and a potential diesel export ban for the U.S.

• Hit the books (Real Estate): An education-focused Mexican REIT plans to raise Ps3.0–3.5 billion ($174–$200 million) in additional local debt by year-end, subject to regulatory and investor approvals, to fund campus acquisitions and potential development. The trust, whose 78-property portfolio was valued at Ps41 billion as of June 30, is targeting campuses occupied by existing tenants and opportunities in northern Mexico and the State of Mexico. It is also evaluating global debt markets and a potential follow-on equity offering next year, although peso financing remains preferable given its local-currency revenues. The move highlights the continued depth of capital market access for REITs in North America.^[4]​
• Permit pending (Infrastructure): Power availability and permitting are emerging as key constraints on AI growth, with permitting and environmental delays affecting natural gas infrastructure. This has threatened the timely completion of a major New Mexico data center scheduled for 2028, with its major customer delivering a force majeure notice to delay payments until completion. The setback weighed on power-generation and equipment stocks, highlighting execution and valuation risks across the AI supply chain. However, slower capacity additions could support computing prices, increase the value of existing capacity, and ease near-term financing pressures on developers.^[1]​
• Turn off the tap (Commodities): A proposed temporary ban on U.S. diesel exports could sharply reduce domestic prices initially by redirecting supply to undersupplied coastal markets. One estimate projected that retail prices could fall from above $6.50 to $4.70 per gallon within 15 days and inventories could return to their five-year average within two weeks. However, the benefit would likely fade as storage constraints, high carrying costs, and weaker refining margins prompt producers to cut crude runs and overall fuel output. Estimates suggest available storage could fill within three weeks to three months, while the roughly 1.6 million barrels per day previously exported would be difficult to redistribute because of limited tanker capacity and the absence of Gulf Coast pipeline connections to California. The measure could also tighten global supply and affect key U.S. allies amid disruptions linked to the wars involving Iran, Russia and Ukraine.^[1]​