Important security note: Warning of attempted fraud in the name of DWS
We have detected that fraudulent individuals are misusing the "DWS" trademark and the names of DWS employees on the internet and social media. These fraudsters are operating fake websites, Facebook pages, WhatsApp groups and Mobile Apps. Please be aware that DWS does not have any Facebook Ambassador profiles or WhatsApp chats. If you receive any unexpected calls, messages, or emails claiming to be from DWS, exercise caution and do not make any payments or disclose personal information. We encourage you to report any suspicious activity to info@dws.com, including any relevant documents and the original fraudulent email. Additionally, if you believe you have been a victim of fraud, please notify your local authorities and take steps to protect yourself.
3/5/2025
Weekly Edition
Index definitions: Global Real Estate = FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Developed Index; Global Infrastructure = Dow Jones Brookfield Global Infrastructure Index; Natural Resource Equities = S&P Global Natural Resources Index; Commodity Futures = Bloomberg Commodity Index; TIPS = Barclays US TIPS Index; Global Equities = MSCI World Index; Real Assets Index = 30% FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Developed Index, 30% Dow Jones Brookfield Global Infrastructure Index; 15% S&P Global Natural Resources Index; 15% Bloomberg Commodity Index, 10% Barclays TIPS Index. Source: Bloomberg, DWS. Past performance is not indicative of future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
Reworking the terms of trade and the U.S. economy will take a period of “transition” according to U.S. President Trump. Statements such as that, and others made by administration officials, lowered the market’s belief in a “Trump put.” The intra-day trade spats continued as steel and aluminum U.S. tariffs went into effect, drawing retaliatory measures from targeted nations, and prompting further escalation from President Trump. The trade spat, and its uncertainty, weighed on consumer and business sentiment and threatens to crimp global growth and corporate earnings. One indicator of these concerns was the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, which fell to 100.7, slowing from a multi-year high of 105.1, touched at the end of the year. Elsewhere, Germany continues to work towards finalizing an increase in defense spending, despite Green party resistance and China is planning local stimulus to help combat negative trade impacts. Other targeted nations have worked on diplomacy, trying to secure exemptions, rather than direct trade confrontation with the U.S. Separately the Bank of Canada trimmed rates 25 basis points (bps) to 2.75% as it attempts to offset the “pervasive uncertainty” of the ongoing trade battle with the U.S.[1]
Global equity markets ended the review period weaker, with consumer discretionary and technology stocks falling the furthest, while energy and utility stocks managed to post gains. The Real Assets Index outperformed global equities on a relative basis. Global Natural Resource Equities, Global Infrastructure securities, and Commodity futures outperformed the Real Assets Index with positive returns. Global Real Estate securities lagged the Real Assets Index but outperformed broader global equities on a relative basis. Among other indicators we track, the VIX, an index of expected S&P volatility, rose 10% to 24.2. Inflation break-evens were relatively unchanged for the 10-year segment, and down 2 basis points (bps) for the 5-year, while the nominal yield curve steepened. Credit spreads, the yield premium over sovereign base rates, widened across the credit spectrum, with investment-grade (IG) spreads rising 9 bps and high-yield (HY) spreads rising 31 bps. For the period, the dollar was slightly weaker, ending at 103.61 as measured by the DXY index. Oil prices managed to gain 2% to reach $67.68 per barrel, and gold prices continued to rise, hitting $2,934 per ounce.[1]
Why it matters: Facing disruption in financial markets, trade flows, and corporate revenues, investors need to stay on their toes to factor in new information and potential outcomes. We continue to monitor the hard data, but also expectations and sentiment, as views and beliefs can translate into actual activity, which is eventually revealed in the hard data.
Macro Dive: We will take a look at inflation and jobs data in the U.S., as well as production and export data in Germany.
Real Assets, Real Insights: This week we will look at mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in the health care segment of the real estate sector, confirmation of infrastructure spending for utilities to support AI, and weather impacts on natural gas demand.