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Macro
Global growth rates converging
GDP growth (in %, year-on-year) |
2024F |
2025F |
|
United States | 2.7 | ‌ | 2.0 |
Eurozone | 0.7 | ‌ | 0.9 |
United Kingdom | 1.0 | ‌ | 1.2 |
Japan | -0.1 | ‌ | 1.2 |
China | 4.9 | Â | 4.2 |
World | 3.1 | ‌ | 3.1 |
Fiscal deficit (in % of GDP) |
2024F |
2025F |
|
United States | 6.6 | ‌ | 7.3 |
Eurozone | 2.8 | ‌ | 3.0 |
United Kingdom | 4.5 | ‌ | 3.7 |
Japan | 6.0 | ‌ | 4.0 |
China | 13.2 | ‌ | 13.1 |
Consumer price inflation (in %, year-on-year) |
2024F |
2025F |
|
United States[1] | 2.9 | ‌ | 2.4 |
Eurozone | 2.3 | ‌ | 2.0 |
United Kingdom | 2.5 | ‌ | 2.3 |
Japan | 2.5 | ‌ | 2.0 |
China | 0.5 | Â | 1.3 |
Unemployment Rate (annual average) |
2024F |
2025F |
|
United States | 4.1 | Â | 4.2 |
Eurozone | 6.4 | ‌ | 6.3 |
United Kingdom | 4.4 | Â | 4.5 |
Japan | 2.5 | ‌ | 2.4 |
China | 5.1 | ‌ | 5.0 |
Benchmark rates (in %) |
Current[2] |
December 25F |
|
United States | 4.50-4.75 | ‌ | 3.75-4.00 |
Eurozone | 3.25 | ‌ | 2.00 |
United Kingdom | 4.75 | ‌ | 3.00 |
Japan | 0.25 | Â | 1.00 |
China | 3.10 | ‌ | 2.75 |
Commodities (in dollars) |
Current[2] |
December 25F |
|
Crude oil (Brent) | 72.0 | ‌ | 69 |
Gold | 2,571 | Â | 2,800 |
Copper (LME) | 9,200 | Â | 9,850 |
Carbon | 68 | Â | 75 |

Equities
Positive thinking prevails
Current[3] |
December 2025FForecast |
Total Return (exp.)[4] |
Expected earnings growth |
P/E impact |
Dividend yield |
||
United States |
6,038 | ‌ | 6,500 | 9.0% | 12.2% | -5.0% | 1.3% |
Europe |
537 | Â | 550 | 5.8% | 6.0% | -4.0% | 3.4% |
Eurozone |
5,259 | Â | 5,350 | 4.9% | 6.0% | -4.0% | 3.2% |
Germany |
21,498 | Â | 22,500 | 4.7% | 6.6% | -4.0% | 2.7% |
United Kingdom |
8,583 | Â | 8,500 | 2.8% | 4.0% | -5.0% | 3.8% |
Switzerland |
12,536 | Â | 12,550 | 3.3% | 9.0% | -8.0% | 3.2% |
Japan |
1,691 | ‌ | 1,770 | 7.0% | 7.0% | -2.0% | 2.4% |
1,097 | ‌ | 1,200 | 12.3% | 11.0% | -2.0% | 2.9% | |
710 | ‌ | 770 | 11.1% | 11.0% | -2.0% | 2.6% |
F refers to DWS Investment GmbH forecasts as of 02/06/25

Fixed Income
Yields without clear direction
Current[2] |
December 2025F |
||
United States |
|||
U.S. Treasuries (10-year) | 4.44% | Â | 4.50% |
U.S. municipal bonds[6] | 67 bp | Â | 75 bp |
U.S. investment-grade corporates[6] | 74 bp | Â | 85 bp |
U.S. high-yield corporates[6] | 266 bp | Â | 325 bp |
Securitized: mortgage-backed securities[6] | 142 bp |  | 120 bp |
Europe |
|||
German Bunds (10-year) | 2.36% | Â | 2.20% |
UK Gilts (10-year) | 4.47% | Â | 4.00% |
Euro investment-grade corporates[7] | 98 bp | Â | 95 bp |
Euro high-yield corporates[7] | 323 bp | Â | 400 bp |
Securitized: covered bonds[7] | 50 bp | Â | 50 bp |
Italy (10-year)[7] | 120 bp | Â | 150 bp |
Asia- Pacific |
|||
Japanese government bonds (10-year)Â Â | 1.07% | Â | 1.40% |
Asia credit | 133 bp | Â | 125 bp |
Global |
|||
Emerging-market sovereigns | 333 bp | Â | 390 bp |
Legend:
- Macro data exchange rates and alternative investments: The arrows signal whether we expect to see an upward trend  , a sideways trend  or a downward trend  .
- The signals' colors illustrate the return opportunities for long-only investors: Â positive return potential for long-only investors. Â limited return opportunity as well as downside risk. Â negative return potential for long-only investors.