- Home »
- Insights »
- CIO View »
- CIO View quarterly »
- Our forecasts
to read
Macro
Cautiously optimistic
| GDP growth (in %, year-on-year) | 2020F | 2021F | |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | -4.4 | 4.0 | |
| Eurozone | -8.5 | 5.5 | |
| United Kingdom | -10.0 | 4.5 | |
| Japan | -5.5 | 3.0 | |
| China | 2.2 | 8.2 | |
| World | -4.3 | 5.2 |
| Fiscal deficit (in % of GDP) | 2020F | 2021F | |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 18.0 | 15.0 | |
| Eurozone | 9.7 | 6.0 | |
| United Kingdom | 18.0 | 8.0 | |
| Japan | 14.0 | 6.0 | |
| China | 11.9 | 11.8 |
| Consumer price inflation (in %, year-on-year) | 2020F | 2021F | |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States[1] | 1.6 | 1.8 | |
| Eurozone | 0.3 | 1.0 | |
| United Kingdom | 0.9 | 1.5 | |
| Japan | 0.0 | 0.2 | |
| China | 2.9 | 2.0 |
| Current-account balance (in % of GDP) | 2020F | 2021F | |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | -2.5 | -2.5 | |
| Eurozone | 3.4 | 3.0 | |
| United Kingdom | -2.8 | -4.0 | |
| Japan | 3.6 | 3.2 | |
| China | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Benchmark rates (in %) | Current[2] | Dec 2021F | |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 0.00-0.25 | 0.00-0.25 | |
| Eurozone | -0.50 | -0.50 | |
| United Kingdom | 0.10 | 0.10 | |
| Japan | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| China | 3.85 | 3.55 |
| Commodities (in dollars) | Current[2] | Dec 2021F | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crude oil (WTI 12M forward) | 41.1 | 49 | |
| Gold | 1,877 | 2,100 | |
| Copper (LME) | 6,934 | 6,950 |
Equities
Low interest rates, higher valuations
| Current[3] | Dec 2021F Forecast | Total Return (exp.)[4] |
Expected earnings growth |
P/E impact |
Dividend yield | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
United States |
3,537 | 3,800 | 9.2% | 31% | -23% | 1.7% | |
|
Europe |
385 | 400 | 6.7% | 26% | -22% | 2.9% | |
|
Eurozone |
3,428 | 3,500 | 4.9% | 25% | -23% | 2.8% | |
|
Germany |
13,053 | 14,000 | 7.3% | 25% | -20% | 2.7% | |
|
United Kingdom |
6,339 | 6,400 | 4.8% | 25% | -24% | 3.9% | |
|
Switzerland |
10,496 | 10,900 | 6.8% | 13% | -9% | 3.0% | |
|
Japan |
1,050 | 1,100 | 6.6% | 25% | -20% | 1.9% | |
| 1,182 | 1,280 | 10.6% | 28% | -20% | 2.3% | ||
| 778 | 850 | 11.5% | 24% | -15% | 2.2% |
F refers to DWS Investment GmbH forecasts as of 11/12/20
Fixed Income
Credit to remain supported
| Current[2] | Dec 2021F | ||
|---|---|---|---|
|
United States |
|||
| U.S. Treasuries (10-year) | 0.88% | 1.00% | |
| U.S. municipal bonds[6] | 96% | 90% | |
| U.S. investment-grade corporates | 109 bp | 90 bp | |
| U.S. high-yield corporates | 435 bp | 370 bp | |
| Securitized: mortgage-backed securities[7] | 49 bp | 45 bp | |
| Europe | |||
| German Bunds (10-year) | -0.54% | -0.50% | |
| UK Gilts (10-year) | 0.35% | 0.30% | |
| Euro investment-grade corporates[8] | 107 bp | 85 bp | |
| Euro high-yield corporates[8] | 414 bp | 380 bp | |
| Securitized: covered bonds[8] | 34 bp | 40 bp | |
| Italy (10-year)[8] | 122 bp | 120 bp | |
| Asia-Pacific | |||
| Japanese government bonds (10-year) | 0.03% | 0.00% | |
| Asia credit | 311 bp | 300 bp | |
| Global | |||
| Emerging-market sovereigns | 380 bp | 350 bp | |
| Emerging-market credit | 358 bp | 320 bp |
Legend:
- Macro data exchange rates and alternative investments: The arrows signal whether we expect to see an upward trend , a sideways trend or a downward trend .
- The signals' colors illustrate the return opportunities for long-only investors: positive return potential for long-only investors. limited return opportunity as well as downside risk. negative return potential for long-only investors.
Performance over the past 5 years (12-month periods)
| 10/15 - 10/16 | 10/16 - 10/17 | 10/17 - 10/18 | 10/18 - 10/19 | 10/19 - 10/20 | |
| Asia credit | 7.8% | 3.4% | -2.5% | 12.6% | 5.0% |
| Dax | -1.7% | 24.0% | -13.5% | 12.4% | -10.2% |
| Emerging-market sovereigns | 11.6% | 5.9% | -5.3% | 13.7% | 2.0% |
| Emerging-markets credit | 9.9% | 6.5% | -1.9% | 13.0% | 4.9% |
| Euro high-yield corporates | 7.1% | 7.8% | -1.3% | 5.2% | -0.2% |
| Euro investment-grade corporates | 5.1% | 2.3% | -1.2% | 6.1% | 1.2% |
| Euro securitized: covered bonds | 2.7% | -0.1% | -0.2% | 3.8% | 1.3% |
| Euro Stoxx 50 | -8.0% | 23.3% | -10.6% | 15.9% | -16.2% |
| FTSE 100 | 13.8% | 12.1% | -0.9% | 6.4% | -20.4% |
| German Bunds (10-year) | 3.8% | -0.3% | 0.8% | 6.2% | 1.6% |
| Italy (10-year) | 1.9% | 1.9% | -8.3% | 22.3% | 3.9% |
| Japanese government bonds (10-year) | 3.0% | -0.8% | 0.0% | 2.5% | -1.3% |
| MSCI AC Asia ex Japan Index | 6.6% | 30.4% | -13.6% | 13.2% | 15.9% |
| MSCI Emerging Market Index | 9.3% | 26.5% | -12.5% | 11.9% | 8.3% |
| MSCI Japan Index | 3.2% | 17.8% | -3.6% | 9.2% | 0.3% |
| S&P 500 | 4.5% | 23.6% | 7.3% | 14.3% | 9.7% |
| Stoxx Europe 600 | -6.2% | 20.6% | -5.2% | 14.0% | -11.4% |
| Swiss Market Index | -9.2% | 22.0% | 1.0% | 17.1% | -3.0% |
| U.S. high-yield corporates | 10.1% | 8.9% | 1.0% | 8.4% | 3.5% |
| U.S. investment-grade corporates | 6.9% | 3.2% | -2.8% | 14.9% | 6.7% |
| U.S. securitized: mortgage-backed securities | 3.3% | 0.5% | -1.5% | 8.9% | 3.9% |
| U.S. Treasuries (10-years) | 4.6% | -1.8% | -3.2% | 14.6% | 8.5% |
| UK Gilts (10-years) | 7.2% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 7.9% | 3.2% |
Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P., DWS Investment GmbH as of 10/31/20
Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models that may prove to be incorrect.
