U.S. Election 2020

An investor's guide

On November 3, 2020 the 59th U.S. presidential election takes place

Voters in America will soon decide whether President Donald Trump will remain in office for another four-year term.

His challenger is Democratic Party nominee Joe Biden whose political career dates to the 1970's, most recently as Vice President under former President Barack Obama.

How may the outcome of the election impact investors? What could each candidate's political agenda bring to the U.S. and world economies?

Stay informed as the race develops. Our experts will offer insight and perspective on the opportunities and risks this election presents.

U.S. elections 2020: Everything will be obvious, once you know the answers

The upcoming U.S. elections could be remembered as the most important since 1980.

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What is on each candidate´s agenda? – There's a lot at stake!

The world is spellbound by the upcoming U.S. election. Rarely in recent decades has the political and economic situation been characterized by such intense uncertainty as now. Rarely has so much been at stake. Seldom have the two candidates been more starkly opposed in their personalities and policies.

Here is a detailed look at their policies and proposals in key areas.

Donald Trump

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with vice president Mike Pence

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Joe Biden

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with his running mate Kamala Harris

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Economy

Lower taxes, deregulation, America first

  • Against tax increases. In 2017 he reduced the corporate tax rate from 35 to 21 percent. He considers tax increases an impediment to growth.

  • A big supporter of deregulation, with which he intends to continue.

  • A trade policy is oriented toward economic and labor market policy interests of the United States. He wants to relocate industrial production facilities back to the U.S.

Higher taxes on wealthier Americans and corporations, environmentally friendly economic policy, protection of domestic industry

  • Wants to raise the federal minimum wage to $15 per hour – double the current  $7.25 per hour.

  • Aims to build modern, environmentally friendly infrastructure. Two trillion dollars are to be made available over a period of four years.

  • Has put forward a $700 billion "Made in America" program to support domestic industry. One example of this is that rechargeable batteries and electric cars would be produced increasingly in the U.S.

  • Wants to increase tax revenues. To this end, the  corporate tax rate is to be raised from 21 to 28 percent. The top personal income tax rate is to be raised slightly to 39.6 percent (from 37 percent currently).


Trade & Tariffs

Sharp critic of China – questions many international agreements

  • Has introduced punitive duties on Chinese products.

  • Has withdrawn from international trade agreements such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Renegotiated the North American Free Trade Agreement and replaced it with the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA).

  • Is also grappling with the EU. After threatening punitive tariffs on car imports from Europe is now in negotiation on a new trade agreement.

Global trade agreements, critical attitude towards China

  • Supports free trade and is a critic of the punitive tariffs imposed by Trump.

  • Critical, however, of China. Shares Trump's view that China violates international trade agreements and does not respect intellectual property rights (copyrights, patents, trademarks).

  • Is open to trade agreements in principle.


Climate Change

Climate protection not a priority

  • Strongly supports the expansion of fossil energy production.

  • Intends to reverse environmental regulations and invest more in traditional infrastructure such as roads, bridges and airports.

  • Has terminated the Paris Climate Agreement – official withdrawal will take effect after the presidential election.

Climate protection an important goal

  • Favors of greatly reducing carbon emissions and investing in modern, environmentally friendly infrastructure. He intends to spend two trillion dollars over four years on this.

  • Supports the goal of making the U.S. carbon neutral by 2050.

  • Would like to recommit to the Paris Climate Agreement.


Foreign Policy

Prefers bilateral agreements

  • Has escalated political engagement with China and imposed massive restrictions on Chinese technology companies that operate in the United States.

  • Has repeatedly questioned the importance of NATO and considered terminating membership.

  • Has exited the nuclear agreement negotiated between the U.S., Iran, Europe, Russia and China.

Trusts in the international community

  • Favors multilateral rather than bilateral agreements and wants, among other things, to use them to exert pressure on China.

  • Depends on increased international cooperation, such as support for NATO and a revival of the nuclear agreement with Iran.

  • Sees the danger that authoritarian states will increasingly take over if the U.S. withdraws from its global leadership role.


Healthcare

Critical of current health insurance

  • Is against the changes to health insurance introduced by former President Obama.

  • Wants to present his own concept of a better, more cost-efficient system, but has not announced a plan.

  • Intends to tighten the conditions for entitlement to state health insurance benefits.

Intends to extend statutory health insurance

  • Supports the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) introduced by President Obama.

  • Plans to build on Obamacare by injecting $750 billion into healthcare  over ten years. This is to be financed by tax increases for the wealthy, among other things.

  • Advocates expansion of state health services for lower income citizens.


Source: Reuters reporting as of August 10, 2020

U.S. election 2020 polls: Who is ahead — Biden or Trump?

Tell us your opinion on our survey: If Trump wins, will this have a positive or negative impact on the S&P 500?

Historically, who won the White House and by what majority?

Which states currently are strongholds for which party? – Early voting and historical view since 2000

U.S. election – early voting (start on 9/18)

Democrat Stronghold

Republican Stronghold

U.S. presidential election 2016 results

U.S. presidential election 2012 results

U.S. presidential election 2008 results

U.S. presidential election 2004 results

U.S. presidential election 2000 results

Tell us your opinion: If Biden wins, will this have a positive or negative impact on the S&P 500?

Profile of the candidates

Donald Trump

45. President of the United States

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Born:

June 14, 1946

Education:

University of Pennsylvania, B.S., 1968

Wife:

Melania Trump; divorced from Ivana Trump and from Marla Maples

Religion:

Presbyterian

Children:

Donald Jr. (son of Ivana), Ivanka (daughter of Ivana), Eric (son of Ivana), Tiffany (daughter of Marla) and Barron (son of Melania)

Previous Jobs:

President, Trump Organization, 1971-2017;
Host, NBC´s "The Apprentice", 2004-2015

Sources: CNN Sans ™ & © 2016 Cable News Network

Joe Biden

Former Vice President of the United States

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Born:

November 20, 1942

Education:

University of Delaware, B.A., 1965; Syracuse University Law School, J.D., 1968

Wife:

Jill Biden, Neilia Biden (deceased)

Religion:

Roman Catholic

Children:

Beau (deceased, son of Neilia), Naomi (deceased, daughter of Neilia), Hunter (son of Neilia) and Ashley (daughter of Jill)

Previous Jobs:

Senator from Delaware, 1973-2009;
New Castle County Council in Delaware, 1970-1972

Michael Richard Pence

Vice president of the United States

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Born:

June 7, 1959

Education:

Indiana University School of Law (J.D., 1986);
Hannover College, Indiana (B.A., 1981)

Wife:

Karen Pence

Religion:

Evangelical Christian

Children:

Audrey Pence, Charlotte Pence Bond, Michael Pence

Previous Jobs:

Governor of Indiana, 2013-2017;
U.S. congressman, 2001-2013

Sources: ThoughtCo.,©2020 Encyclopædia Britannica, Inc.

Kamala Devi Harris

United States Senator, representing California

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Born:

October 20, 1964

Education:

University of California Hastings College of Law (J.D., 1989);
Howard University (B.A., 1986)

Husband:

Douglas Emhoff

Religion:

Baptist

Children:

Stepmother of Ella Emhoff and Cole Emhoff

Previous Jobs:

Attorney general of California, 2010-2017;
District attorney of San Francisco, 2004-2011;
Deputy district attorney of Alameda county, California, 1990-98

Timeline election

A short overview of the relevant dates until the next president's inauguration

                                                                                                                                                                             Source: Los Angeles Times

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