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Our fore­casts Q2 2026

Forecasts
Macro
Equities
Fixed Income
Alternatives
Currencies

25/5/2026

In light of the very dynamic market environment these forecasts are subject to change at any time.

Smartphone displaying financial charts in an urban setting.

Page Sum­mary

Macro

Looking through the Strait of Hormuz
All

 

GDP growth (in %, year-on-year)

2026F

 

2027F

United States

2.0

  

2.0

Eurozone0.9

  

1.3
United Kingdom

0.8

  

1.2

Japan

0.7

  

0.9

China

4.7

red arrow down

4.4

World

3.1

  

 

3.3

Fiscal deficit (in % of GDP)

2026F

 

2027F

United States

6.6

  

6.8

Eurozone

3.4

    

3.4

United Kingdom

3.8

  

3.0

Japan

3.0

   

3.2

China

8.5

   

8.4

Consumer price inflation (in %, year-on-year)

2026F

 

2027F

United States[1]3.2

    

2.3
Eurozone3.1

    

 

2.5
United Kingdom3.1

 red arrow down

2.4
Japan2.3

    

2.4
China0.8  1.0

Unemployment Rate (annual average)

2026F

 

2027F

United States4.7

  

4.5
Eurozone6.3

  

6.1
United Kingdom5.4

  

5.3
Japan2.5

  

2.5
China5.1  5.1

Benchmark rates (in %)

Current

[2]

 

Jun 27F

United States3.50-3.75

  

3.00-3.25
Eurozone2.00

   

2.50
United Kingdom3.75

   

4.00
Japan0.75  1.25
China3.00

  

2.80

Commodities (in dollars)

Current 

[2]

 

Jun 27F

Crude oil (Brent)111.3

red arrow down

82
Gold4,483

green arrow up

5,400

 

Equities

AI is driving almost everything

Country

Current[2]

 

Jun 2027F

Forecast

Total Return (exp.)[3]

Expected earnings growth

P/E impact

Dividend yield

United States (S&P 500)

7,347

 green circle

8,200

13.1%

14.8%

-3.1% 

 1.5%

Europe (Stoxx Europe 600)

611

green circle 

 650

9.9% 

9.5%

-3.1% 

3.5% 

Eurozone (Euro Stoxx 50)

5,853

 green circle

 6,250

10.2%

10.0%

-3.2% 

3.4% 

Germany (Dax)[4]

24,387

yellow circle

26,300

7.8% 

10.1%

-5.1%

2.9% 

United Kingdom (FTSE 100)

10,337

green circle

10,800

8.7%

9.4%

-4.4% 

 3.7%

Switzerland (Swiss Market Index)

13,365

yellow circle

13,850

6.8%

6.0% 

-2.4% 

3.1% 

Japan (MSCI Japan Index)

2,367

 green circle

2,660

14.6% 

12.5% 

-0.1%

2.2% 

MSCI Emerging Markets Index (USD)

 

1,637

 green circle

1,870

17.4% 

27.2% 

-13.0% 

3.2% 

MSCI AC Asia ex Japan Index (USD)

 

1,082

green circle

1,245

17.8%

29.0%

-13.9%

2.7%

F refers to our forecasts as of 05/19/26

 

 

Fixed Income

(Temporary?) Inflation and growth scares

 

Country

Current[5]

 

Jun 2027F

United States
  

 

U.S. Treasuries (2-year)4.12%yellow circle

3.40%

U.S. Treasuries ( (10-year)4.67%green circle

4.20%

U.S. municipal bonds[6]67 bpyellow circle

65 bp

U.S. investment-grade corporates[6]70 bpgreen circle

85 bp

U.S. high-yield corporates[6]

273 bp

green circle

300 bp

Securitized: mortgage-backed securities[6]

118 bp

yellow circle

100 bp

Europe

 

 

 

German Bunds (2-year)

2.76%

yellow circle

2.30%

German Bunds (10-year)

3.19%

yellow circle

2.90%

UK Gilts(10-year)

5.13%

green circle

4.40%

Euro investment-grade corporates[7]

78 bp

yellow circle

65 bp

Euro high-yield corporates[7]

256 bp

yellow circle

280 bp

Securitized: Covered bonds[7]

37 bp

yellow circle

30 bp

Italy (10-year)[7]

77 bp

green circle

60 bp

Asia- Pacific

 

 

 

Japanese government bonds (10-year)  

2.79%

yellow circle

2.40%

Asia credit

108 bp

green circle

125 bp

Global

 

 

 

Emerging-market sovereigns

242 bp

green circle

240 bp

Currencies

 

Currency

Current[5]

 

Jun 2027F

EUR vs. USD1.16    1.22
USD vs. JPY159  145
EUR vs. GBP0.87  0.85
GBP vs. USD1.34  1.44
USD vs. CNY6.81  6.60

F refers to our forecasts as of 5/19/26
LME = London Metal Exchange
bp = basis points

Legend:

  • Macro data exchange rates and alternative investments: The arrows signal whether we expect to see an upward trend green arrow upa sideways trend yellow arrow sideway   or a downward trend red arrow down.
  • The signals' colors illustrate the return opportunities for long-only investors:  green circlepositive return potential for long-only investors. yellow circle limited return opportunity as well as downside risk.  red circlenegative return potential for long-only investors.

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