Our forecasts

All forecasts at a glance

Macro: Far from dismal

GDP growth (in %, year-on-year) 2019F 2020F
United States 2.5 2.0
Eurozone 1.2 1.2
United Kingdom 1.4 1.5
Japan 0.5 0.6
China 6.0 6.0
World 3.4 3.4
Fiscal deficit (in % of GDP) 2019F 2020F
United States 4.4 4.4
Eurozone 0.8 0.7
United Kingdom 1.8 1.4
Japan 3.1 2.4
China 4.8 3.8
Consumer price inflation (in %, year-on-year) 2019F 2020F
United States[1] 1.9 2.0
Eurozone 1.4 1.5
United Kingdom 1.8 2.1
Japan 0.9 1.7
China 1.5 1.8
Current-account balance (in % of GDP) 2019F 2020F
United States -2.7 -2.6
Eurozone 2.9 2.9
United Kingdom -3.5 -3.2
Japan 3.8 4.1
China 0.6 0.2
Benchmark rates (in %) Current[2] June 20F
United States 2.25-2.50 1.75-2.00
Eurozone 0.00 0.00
United Kingdom 0.75 1.00
Japan 0.00 0.00
China 4.35 4.10
Commodities (in dollars) Current[3] June 20F
Crude oil (WTI) 58.5 60
Gold 1,410 1,400
Copper (LME) 5,993 6,400

Equity: Cautious, for now

Current[4]June 2020F
Forecast
Total
Return (exp.)[5]
Expected
earnings growth
P/E
impact
Dividend
yield
United States
(S&P 500)
2,942 3,000 4,0% 5%

-3%

2.0%
Europe
(Stoxx Europe 600)
385 380 2.4% 5% -6% 3.7%
Eurozone
(Euro Stoxx 50)
3,474 3,370 0.7% 5% -8% 3.7%
Germany
(Dax)[6]
12,399 12,300 -0.8% 6% -10% 3.2%
United Kingdom
(FTSE 100)
7,426 7,220 1.9% 3% -6% 4.7%
Switzerland
(Swiss Market Index)
9,898 9,450 -1.2% 7% -12% 3.3%
Japan
(MSCI Japan Index)
936 970 6.0% -1% 5% 2.4%
MSCI Emerging
Markets Index (USD)
1,055 1.080 5.3% 5% -3% 3.0%
MSCI AC Asia
ex Japan Index (USD)
653 680 6.9% 5% 0% 2.7%

Fixed Income: So much for rate hikes

Current[3]June 2020F
United States
U.S. Treasuries (10-year) 2.01% 2.00%
U.S. municipal bonds 81% 80%
U.S. investment-grade corporates 109 bp 105 bp
U.S. high-yield corporates 377 bp 440 bp
Securitized: mortgage-backed securities[7] 39 bp 38 bp
Europe
German Bunds (10-year) -0.33% -0.10%
UK Gilts (10-year) 0.83% 1.50%
Euro investment-grade corporates[8] 124 bp 90 bp
Euro high-yield corporates[8] 379 bp 380 bp
Securitized: covered bonds[8] 49 bp 50 bp
Italy (10-year)[8] 243 bp 270 bp
Asia-Pacific
Japanese government bonds (10-year)   -0.16% 0.15%
Asia credit   265 bp 265 bp
Global
Emerging-market sovereigns 344 bp 330 bp
Emerging-market credit   330 bp 300 bp

Currencies

Current[3]June 2020F
EUR vs. USD   1.14 1.15
USD vs. JPY 108 107
EUR vs. GBP 0.90 0.88
GBP vs. USD   1.27 1.30
USD vs. CNY 6.87 7.00

F refers to our forecasts as of 6/24/19
WTI = West Texas Intermediate
LME = London Metal Exchange
bp = basis points

Performance over the past 5 years (12-month periods)

05/14 - 05/1505/15 - 05/1605/16 - 05/1705/17 - 05/1805/18 - 05/19
Asia credit 1.9% 3.2% -12.8% 7.6% 8.5%
Dax 14.8% -10.1% 22.9% -0.1% -7.0%
Emerging-market sovereigns 2.5% 4.5% 9.8% -0.6% 7.5%
Emerging-markets credit 3.3% 2.2% 9.0% 0.2% 8.4%
Euro high-yield corporates 5.4% 0.6% 9.5% 1.5% 2.2%
Euro investment-grade corporates 4.3% 2.0% 2.8% 0.6% 3.1%
Euro securitized: covered bonds 4.7% 1.8% 0.2% 0.2% 2.6%
Euro Stoxx 50 10.1% -14.2% 16.0% -4.2% -3.7%
FTSE 100 2.0% -10.8% 20.7% 2.1% -6.7%
German Bunds (10-year) 7.5% 4.4% 0.0% 0.8% 5.0%
Italy (10-year) 10.2% 6.6% -2.5% -2.9% 6.2%
Japanese government bonds (10-year) 2.5% 4.7% -1.2% 0.4% 1.5%
MSCI AC Asia ex Japan Index 8.0% -19.5% 25.1% 14.7% -13.2%
MSCI Emerging Market Index -2.3% -19.6% 24.5% 11.5% -10.9%
MSCI Japan Index 39.2% -19.4% 12.5% 10.5% -11.8%
S&P 500 9.6% -0.5% 15.0% 12.2% 1.7%
Stoxx Europe 600 16.2% -13.1% 12.2% -1.8% -3.7%
Swiss Market Index 6.5% -11.1% 9.7% -6.2% 12.6%
U.S. high-yield corporates 2.0% -0.8% 13.6% 2.3% 5.5%
U.S. investment-grade corporates 2.8% 3.3% 3.9% 0.1% 7.4%
U.S. municipal bonds 2.8% -29.2% 16.2% 27.7% -31.9%
U.S. securitized: mortgage-backed securities 3.3% 2.7% 1.2% -0.3% 5.5%
U.S. Treasuries (10-year) 5.0% 4.4% -0.4% -2.4% 8.6%
UK Gilts (10-year) 7.8% 5.5% 5.2% -0.4% 4.8%
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. as of 5/31/19

Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models that may prove to be incorrect. DWS Investment GmbH as of 5/31/19.

1.

core rate, personal consumption expenditure Dec/Dec in % (no average as for the other figures)

2.

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. as of 5/31/19

3.

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. as of 6/28/19

4.

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., FactSet Research Systems Inc. as of 6/28/19

5.

Expected total return includes interest, dividends and capital gains where applicable

6.

Total-return index (includes dividends)

7.

Bloomberg Barclays MBS Forward Index

8.

Spread over German Bunds

font

CIO View

This website uses cookies in order to improve user experience. If you close this box or continue browsing, we will assume that you are happy with this. For more information about the cookies we use or to find out how you can disable cookies, see our Cookies Notice.

You are now seeing the Italien version of the page despite being located in USA. You can change the country below.

Other country

Other country