Our forecasts

All forecasts at a glance

Macro | Signs of stabilization

GDP growth (in %, year-on-year) 2019F 2020F
United States 2.2   1.6
Eurozone 1.1   0.9
United Kingdom 1.2   1.3
Japan 0.8   0.2
China 6.2   5.8
World 3.1   3.1
Fiscal deficit (in % of GDP) 2019F 2020F
United States 4.4   4.6
Eurozone 1.1   1.1
United Kingdom 2.2   2.4
Japan 3.2   2.3
China 4.8   4.2
Consumer price inflation (in %, year-on-year) 2019F 2020F
United States[1] 1.9   1.9
Eurozone 1.3   1.3
United Kingdom 1.9   2.0
Japan 0.8   1.4
China 2.4   2.5
Current-account balance (in % of GDP) 2019F 2020F
United States -2.5   -2.6
Eurozone 3.3   3.2
United Kingdom -4.3   -4.2
Japan 3.2   3.4
China 0.2   0.1
Benchmark rates (in %) Current[2] Dec 20F
United States 1.50-1.75   1.50-1.75
Eurozone 0.00   0.00
United Kingdom 0.75   0.75
Japan 0.00   0.00
China 4.35   4.10
Commodities (in dollars) Current[2] Dec 20F
Crude oil (WTI) 56.8   54
Gold 1,471   1,575
Copper (LME) 5,812   6,240

Equity | Earnings rebound ahead

Current[3] Dec 2020F Forecast Total Return (exp.)[4] Expected earnings growth P/E impact Dividend yield

United States

(S&P 500)

3,191   3,300 5.3% 6% -3% 1.9%

Europe

(Stoxx Europe 600)

418   420 4.1% 6% -5% 3.5%

Eurozone

(Euro Stoxx 50)

3,773   3,770 3.4% 7% -7% 3.5%

Germany

(DAX)[5]

13,408   14,000 4.4% 10% -9% 3.0%

United Kingdom

(FTSE 100)

7,519   7,500 4.5% 2% -2% 4.7%

Switzerland

(Swiss Market Index)

10,542   10,450 2.3% 5% -6% 3.2%

Japan

(MSCI Japan Index)

1,047   1,060 3.7% 4% -2% 2.5%

MSCI Emerging Markets Index

(USD)

1,088   1,120 5.8% 9% -6% 2.9%

MSCI AC Asia ex Japan Index

(USD)

674   700 6.4% 9% -5% 2.5%
F refers to our forecasts as of 12/16/19

Fixed Income | Yields range bound

Current[2] Dec 2020F

United States

U.S. Treasuries (10-year) 1.82%   1.85%
U.S. municipal bonds[6] 87%   80%
U.S. investment-grade corporates 102 bp   110 bp
U.S. high-yield corporates 382 bp   400 bp
Securitized: mortgage-backed securities[7] 48 bp   47 bp
Europe
German Bunds (10-year) -0.35%   -0.35%
UK Gilts (10-year) 0.71%   0.95%
Euro investment-grade corporates[8] 112 bp   90 bp
Euro high-yield corporates[8] 374 bp   360 bp
Securitized: covered bonds[8] 43 bp   40 bp
Italy (10-year)[8] 168 bp   150 bp
Asia-Pacific
Japanese government bonds (10-year) -0.07%   -0.10%
Asia credit 265 bp   265 bp
Global
Emerging-market sovereigns 323 bp   320 bp
Emerging-market credit 326 bp   320 bp

Currencies

Current[2] Dec 2020F
EUR vs. USD 1.10   1.15
USD vs. JPY 108   105
EUR vs. GBP 0.86   0.89
GBP vs. USD 1.29   1.29
USD vs. CNY 7.02   7.10

F refers to our forecasts as of 11/14/19
WTI = West Texas Intermediate
LME = London Metal Exchange
bp = basis points

Legend:

  • Macro data exchange rates and alternative investments: The arrows signal whether we expect to see an upward trend  , a sideways trend  or a downward trend  .
  • The signals' colors illustrate the return opportunities for long-only investors:  positive return potential for long-only investors.  limited returnopportunity as well as downside risk.  negative return potential for long-only investors.

Performance over the past 5 years (12-month periods)


10/14 - 10/15 10/15 - 10/16 10/16 - 10/17 10/17 - 10/18 10/18 - 10/19
Asia credit 3.4% 7.8% 3.4% -2.5% 12.6%
Dax 16.3% -1.7% 24.0% -13.5% 12.4%
Emerging-market sovereigns -0.5% 11.6% 5.9% -5.3% 13.7%
Emerging-markets credit 0.0% 9.9% 6.5% -1.9% 13.0%
Euro high-yield corporates 2.9% 7.1% 7.8% -1.3% 5.2%
Euro investment-grade corporates 0.4% 5.1% 2.3% -1.2% 6.1%
Euro securitized: covered bonds 1.3% 2.7% -0.1% -0.2% 3.8%
Euro Stoxx 50 12.6% -8.0% 23.3% -10.6% 15.9%
FTSE 100 0.8% 13.8% 12.1% -0.9% 6.4%
German Bunds (10-year) 3.7% 3.8% -0.3% 0.8% 6.2%
Italy (10-year) 8.0% 1.9% 1.9% -8.3% 22.3%
Japanese government bonds (10-year) 2.0% 3.0% -0.8% 0.0% 2.5%
MSCI AC Asia ex Japan Index -7.2% 6.6% 30.4% -13.6% 13.2%
MSCI Emerging Market Index -14.5% 9.3% 26.5% -12.5% 11.9%
MSCI Japan Index 9.1% 3.2% 17.8% -3.6% 9.2%
S&P 500 5.2% 4.5% 23.6% 7.3% 14.3%
Stoxx Europe 600 15.0% -6.5% 20.4% -5.4% 13.9%
Swiss Market Index 4.2% -9.2% 22.0% 1.0% 17.1%
U.S. high-yield corporates -1.9% 10.1% 8.9% 1.0% 8.4%
U.S. investment-grade corporates 0.9% 6.9% 3.2% -2.8% 14.9%
U.S. securitized: mortgage-backed securities 2.5% 3.3% 0.5% -1.5% 8.9%
U.S. Treasuries (10-years) 3.9% 4.6% -1.8% -3.2% 14.6%
UK Gilts (10-years) 4.5% 7.2% 1.1% 1.2% 7.9%

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. as of 10/31/19
Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models that may prove to be incorrect.

1. core rate, personal consumption expenditure Dec/Dec in % (no average as for the other figures)

2. Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. as of 11/14/19

3. Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P., FactSet Research Systems Inc. as of 12/16/19

4. Expected total return includes interest, dividends and capital gains where applicable

5. Total-return index (includes dividends)

6. Ratio of 10-year AAA Municipal yield to 10-year U.S. Treasuries yield

7. Bloomberg Barclays MBS Forward Index

8. Spread over German Bunds

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