Macro
Macro
Macro | Plenty of growth momentum
Region |
2017F |
2018F |
||
---|---|---|---|---|
United States |
2.2 |
|
2.3 |
|
Eurozone |
2.1 |
|
1.8 |
|
United Kingdom |
1.6 |
|
1.3 |
|
Japan |
1.5 |
|
1.5 |
|
China |
6.7 |
|
6.5 |
|
World |
3.7 |
|
3.8 |
Region |
2017F |
2018F |
||
---|---|---|---|---|
United States |
3.3 |
|
3.5 |
|
Eurozone |
1.4 |
|
1.3 |
|
United Kingdom |
3.3 |
|
3.5 |
|
Japan |
4.8 |
|
4.8 |
|
China |
3.4 |
|
3.2 |
Region |
2017F |
2018F |
||
---|---|---|---|---|
United States1 |
1.6 |
|
1.8 |
|
Eurozone |
1.5 |
|
1.4 |
|
United Kingdom |
2.6 |
|
2.7 |
|
Japan |
0.7 |
|
1.0 |
|
China |
1.9 |
|
2.2 |
Region |
2017F |
2018F |
||
---|---|---|---|---|
United States |
-2.6 |
|
-2.9 |
|
Eurozone |
3.1 |
|
2.9 |
|
United Kingdom |
-3.5 |
|
-3.5 |
|
Japan |
3.5 |
|
3.5 |
|
China |
1.8 |
|
1.8 |
Region |
Current* |
Sep 2018F |
||
---|---|---|---|---|
United States |
1.00-1.25 |
|
1.50-1.75 |
|
Eurozone |
0.00 |
|
0.00 |
|
United Kingdom |
0.25 |
|
0.50 |
|
Japan |
0.00 |
|
0.00 |
|
China |
4.35 |
|
4.35 |
Current* |
Sep 2018F |
|||
---|---|---|---|---|
Crude oil (WTI) |
51.5 |
|
50 |
|
Gold |
1,304 |
|
1,300 |
|
Copper (LME) |
6,882 |
|
6,600 |
* Source Bloomberg Finance L.P.; as of 10/13/17 1Core rate, personal consumption expenditure Dec/Dec in % (no average as for the other figures) F refers to our forecast as of 9/28/17 WTI = West Texas Intermediate LME = London Metal Exchange
Equities
Equities
Equities | Strong earnings growth
Equity markets (index value in points) |
Current* |
Sep 2018F |
Total Return (expected)1 |
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecast |
% |
Expected earnings growth in % |
P/E impact in % |
Dividend yield in % |
||||
United States (S&P 500) |
2,553 |
|
2,600 |
4.1 |
12 |
-9 |
2.3 |
|
Europe (Stoxx Europe 600) |
391 |
|
400 |
5.8 |
11 |
-7 |
3.6 |
|
Eurozone (Euro Stoxx 50) |
3,605 |
|
3,700 |
6.3 |
11 |
-7 |
3.6 |
|
Germany (Dax)2 |
12,992 |
|
13,600 |
4.7 |
8 |
-7 |
3.0 |
|
United Kingdom (FTSE 100) |
7,535 |
|
7,500 |
3.6 |
8 |
-9 |
4.1 |
|
Switzerland (Swiss Market Index) |
9,312 |
|
9,100 |
1.0 |
11 |
-12 |
3.2 |
|
Japan (MSCI Japan Index) |
1,012 |
|
1,020 |
3.1 |
13 |
-11 |
2.3 |
|
1,126 |
|
1,160 |
5.7 |
15 |
-6 |
2.6 |
||
688 |
|
710 |
5.6 |
17 |
-7 |
2.5 |
||
2,966 |
|
3,000 |
3.9 |
17 |
-14 |
2.8 |
* Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P., FactSet Research Systems Inc.; as of 10/13/17 1 Expected total return includes interest, dividends and capital gains where applicable 2Total-return index (includes dividends) F refers to our forecasts as of 9/28/17
Equity indices, exchange rates and alternative investments: The arrows signal whether we expect to see an upward trend , a sideways trend or a downward trend . The arrows' colors illustrate the return opportunities for long-only investors. positive return potential for long-only investors. limited return opportunity as well as downside risk.negative return potential for long-only investors.
Fixed Income
Fixed Income
Fixed Income | Only small rises in interest rates
|
|
|||
---|---|---|---|---|
United States |
||||
U.S. Treasuries (10-year) |
2.27% |
|
2.60% |
|
U.S. municipal bonds |
87% |
|
90% |
|
U.S. investment-grade corporates |
94 bp |
|
90 bp |
|
U.S. high-yield corporates |
348 bp |
|
360 bp |
|
Securitized: mortgage-backed securities1 |
80 bp |
|
100 bp |
|
Europe |
||||
German Bunds (10-year) |
0.40% |
|
0.80% |
|
UK Gilts (10-year) |
1.37% |
|
1.40% |
|
Euro investment-grade corporates2 |
101 bp |
|
90 bp |
|
Euro high-yield corporates2 |
249 bp |
|
275 bp |
|
Securitized: covered bonds |
51 bp |
|
65 bp |
|
Italy (10-year)2 |
167 bp |
|
180 bp |
|
Asia-Pacific |
|
|||
Japanese government bonds (10-year) |
0.06% |
|
0.10% |
|
Asia credit |
224 bp |
|
235 bp |
|
Global |
||||
Emerging-market sovereigns |
288 bp |
|
285 bp |
|
Emerging-market credit |
292 bp |
|
280 bp |
* Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.; as of 10/13/17 1Current-coupon spread vs. 7-year U.S. Treasuries 2Spread over German Bunds F refers to our forecasts as of 9/28/17 bp = basis points
Fixed Income: For sovereign bonds, denotes rising yields, unchanged yields and falling yields. For corporates, securitized/specialties and emerging-market bonds, the arrows depict the option-adjusted spread over U.S. Treasuries. depicts a rising spread, a sideways trend and a falling spread. The arrows' colors illustrate the return opportunities for long-only investors. positive return potential for long-only investors. limited return opportunity as well as downside risk.negative return potential for long-only investors.
Currencies
Currencies |
Current* |
Sep 2018F |
||
---|---|---|---|---|
1.18 |
|
1.10 |
||
USD vs. JPY |
111.8 |
|
115.00 |
|
EUR vs. GBP |
0.89 |
|
0.87 |
|
GBP vs. USD |
1.33 |
|
1.27 |
|
USD vs. CNY |
6.58 |
|
6.90 |
* Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.; as of 10/13/17 F refers to our forecasts as of 9/28/17