CROCI Outlook 2025

The latest leg of President Trump's trade policy on "Liberation Day" prompted a reassessment of the all-time low equity risk premium which persisted beyond the end of a decade of ultra-loose monetary policy. Amidst spiking volatility, markets have fallen from their high valuations as risk appetite has rapidly declined for now. At the same time as the US turning inward, Europe is also ramping up stimulus and defence spending. Against this backdrop, fundamentals come sharply into focus and investors will face renewed questions about the revival of value as a style.

 This year’s flagship CROCI (Cash Return on Capital Invested) Outlook report explores whether we’re on the cusp of a comeback for Value investing after a decade dominated by Growth. With 30 years of company-level analysis across nearly 900 firms, CROCI offers a unique lens on valuation, profitability, and market dispersion.

 Encouragingly, there is good dispersion of valuation, providing fertile conditions for active stock selection – and historically, Quality Value (to which core CROCI investment strategies are exposed) has been an anchor of stability in uncertain market conditions. We show how CROCI's understanding of company valuations can help equity investors navigate the current uncertain and unstable market environment.