Market index returns

Week to date since April 30, 2025 as of May 7, 2025

Index definitions: Global Real Estate = FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Developed Index; Global Infrastructure = Dow Jones Brookfield Global Infrastructure Index; Natural Resource Equities = S&P Global Natural Resources Index; Commodity Futures = Bloomberg Commodity Index; TIPS = Barclays US TIPS Index; Global Equities = MSCI World Index; Real Assets Index = 30% FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Developed Index, 30% Dow Jones Brookfield Global Infrastructure Index; 15% S&P Global Natural Resources Index; 15% Bloomberg Commodity Index, 10% Barclays TIPS Index. Source: Bloomberg, DWS. Past performance is not indicative of future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

Market commentary:

Broader global equities recovered from April’s damage to land in positive territory year-to-date. The Real Asset Index trailed global equities as the technology sector led the market on proposed changes to U.S. computer chip curbs. Conversely, the healthcare sector lagged the most as the Commerce Department moved towards imposing tariffs on drug imports and U.S. Republicans proposed cuts to Medicaid spending as part of their attempt to pass a budget reconciliation bill. Global Real Estate Securities outperformed global equities and the Real Asset Index on the strength of securities in Asia, as well as those in the Specialty and Office sectors, while the Healthcare sector lagged. Global Infrastructure Securities followed next, also outperforming the Real Asset Index, while Commodity Futures, Natural Resource Equities, and U.S. TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities) lagged.^[1]

Among other indicators we track, the VIX, an index that measures the expected volatility of U.S. stocks, ended the period at 23.6, down 5% from the prior week. Credit spreads tightened during the period, with investment grade spreads falling 3 basis points (bps) and high yield spreads falling 23 bps. The U.S. dollar was roughly unchanged, strengthening 0.1%, as measured by the DXY Index, and oil prices continued to weaken, falling to $58.07. Inflation breakevens increased slightly as the 5-year rose 3 bps to 2.34% and the 10-year rose 3 bps to 2.27%. Gold prices climbed roughly $76, up 2.3% to $3,364/ounce.^[1]

Why it matters: We continue to monitor economic data, as well as sentiment indicators, as they could eventually feed through to the hard data. Capital markets and corporate leaders have clearly voiced their displeasure about uncertainty and the possibility for a protracted trade battle and the damaging effect that these could have on the economy.

This week we will review the latest U.S. survey and jobs data, as well as a Fed decision and findings from its recent consumer survey. 

• The Pulse: Survey data was a mixed bag for the April period. The S&P Global U.S. Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) final data registered at 50.6 for April, which was below expectations of 51.2, and below the prior reading of 51.2. The Services component was a touch stronger at 50.8, but still down from the prior reading of 51.4. The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Services Index reading saw an improvement as it rose to 51.6, up from the prior reading of 50.8. Within the ISM Services measures, employment and new orders strengthened, but one of the largest increases was the prices paid component, which rose to 65.1, up from the prior reading of 60.9. For the Eurozone, the HCOB Services and Composite PMIs ended in expansionary territory as they strengthened to 50.1 and 50.4, respectively.^[1]
• U.S. Jobs: Initial jobless claims for the period ending May 3 came in at 228k, which was down from the prior reading of 241k, but near the 4-week moving average of 227k. Continuing claims eased to 1879k for the period ending April 26, which was down from a recent high of 1908k reached on April 18.
• U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed): The U.S. Federal Reserve’s FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) held rates steady at its last meeting on May 7th. The Fed has held its rate at 4.5% despite persistent jawboning from the administration to lower rates. Statements on the decision still reflect the Fed’s data dependency on the path of rates. The NY Fed’s one-year horizon inflation expectations rose to 3.63%, up from 3.58% for the prior period. According to the survey, consumers expect a range of price hikes over the next year for items such as gasoline (+3.5%), medical expenses (+8.7%), food costs (+5%), and rents (+9%).^[1]

Real Assets, Real Insights: This week we review some recent reports by our colleagues regarding the impact of tariffs for the European real estate sector and the possible transformation of Europe’s competitiveness, as well as the struggling U.S. steel industry.

• The view from Europe (Real Estate): According to the DWS Research Institute, the U.S. trade tariffs should not cause a major price correction in European real estate. Market conditions appear robust, despite a potential downgrade to the outlook for the rental market. European swap rates have fallen, and the ECB could cut rates further than expected which could support pricing. Core European real estate should be relatively insulated, and capital could flow to the region accordingly. Please read more here:  Tariffs and European Real Estate: A First Reaction^[2]
• Transforming Europe’s competitiveness (Infrastructure):  European infrastructure markets are likely to be key beneficiaries of the growing momentum within the region’s response to a number of challenges, both internal and external. As our infrastructure research team notes, more targeted and efficient European Union funding packages for energy, infrastructure, and digital sectors, lower bureaucracy and reporting requirements for businesses and removing barriers to pan-European entities’ operations are all under development. In addition, there is also more capital set to flow into the European infrastructure market, with notable commitments from the EU, French, and German governments. Germany’s blockbuster EUR500bn infrastructure investment program (including EUR100bn earmarked for climate) is particularly noteworthy, given Germany’s historic reluctance to take on more debt. As our research team surmises, amid heightened uncertainty elsewhere in the world, investors are likely to look more favorably on the growth dynamics in the European region. To learn more, check out our recent paper here: Infrastructure Update: Transforming Europe’s Competitiveness.^[2]
• Steel (Commodities):  Commodities strengthened as the U.S. announced that tariffs on UK steel were cut to zero from 25%. Automotive duties were cut from 27.5%, down to 10%. The UK, for its part, removed tariffs on ethanol from the U.S. to zero. The countries also agreed to reciprocal market access on beef, with UK farmers receiving a tariff-free quota of 13k metric tons. The countries also announced work on a digital trade deal to reduce corporate paperwork and to continue working on the remaining sectors, including pharmaceuticals. Despite the announced steel tariff reduction, the U.S. steel industry continues to struggle, as evidenced by recent mill shutdowns. Cleveland-Cliffs, a U.S. steel producer announced a larger-than-expected earnings loss in its latest quarterly results. The company announced a slate of closures and idling of plants to reduce costs and free up working capital.^[1]