Never let a good crisis go to waste

Market index returns

Week to date since February 12, 2025 as of February 19, 2025

Index definitions: Global Real Estate = FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Developed Index; Global Infrastructure = Dow Jones Brookfield Global Infrastructure Index; Natural Resource Equities = S&P Global Natural Resources Index; Commodity Futures = Bloomberg Commodity Index; TIPS = Barclays US TIPS Index; Global Equities = MSCI World Index; Real Assets Index = 30% FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Developed Index, 30% Dow Jones Brookfield Global Infrastructure Index; 15% S&P Global Natural Resources Index; 15% Bloomberg Commodity Index, 10% Barclays TIPS Index. Source: Bloomberg, DWS. Past performance is not indicative of future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

Market commentary:

Rising inflation, illustrated in the U.S. by consumers paying a dollar per egg, combined with greater inequality and crumbling trust in institutions, has contributed to an ability to accept unconventional approaches to the problems we face. For now, this passivity has also been reflected in financial markets which have been orderly in the face of constant headlines and rumors, with the latest being the “Mar-a-Largo accord.” The rumor is a flyer by the U.S. administration to potentially rework the global financial system. The restructuring would be partly facilitated by having holders of U.S. Treasuries swap their holdings into ultra bonds (100-year maturity) to re-profile the U.S. debt load, lower borrowing costs, weaken the U.S. dollar, and tilt the terms of trade back in favor of the U.S. This news reaffirms the administration’s willingness to shake up financial markets in addition to structurally changing politics and commerce. Doing his part, the U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent outlined his 3-3-3 plan to focus on deficit reduction, gross domestic product (GDP) growth, and energy independence. However, Bessent faces an uphill climb as the budget deficit has averaged over 6% since 2010 and real GDP growth has only averaged 2% annually over the same time period. 

Global equity markets had a decent week of performance for the period ending February 19th. Companies in the Technology, Energy, and Industrial sectors led performance, while those in Health Care, Consumer Staples, and Real Estate lagged.  Among some indicators we track, the VIX, an index of expected S&P volatility, inched down 4% to 15.3. U.S. inflation breakeven yields rose 1 basis point (bp) for the 5-year segment and fell -1bp for the 10-year segment. The U.S. dollar weakened marginally, ending at 107.2 for the DXY index, an average of the dollar’s performance against major peers. Investment grade credit spreads tightened 1bp and high yield spreads were unchanged. Oil prices moved up to $72.25/barrel. Gold prices continued to climb, up $29 to $2,933/ounce on continued tariff threats. To illustrate this, the U.S. received a record total of 193 metric tons from Switzerland, Europe’s main refining hub, in January. This was the highest figure going back to the start of data tracking in January 2012. The U.S. government holds 147 million troy ounces of gold at the Fort Knox Depository, out of an estimated total of 8,133 metric tons in reserve. The government sets a $42.22 per ounce value to that inventory, a far cry from the market price of nearly $3,000/oz. With that much money at stake, it’s comforting that President Trump and Elon have recently pledged to go physically verify the Fort Knox gold holdings to back up the government’s annual audit.^[1]

In geopolitical events, at the 61st Munich Security Conference, U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance expressed concerns about Europe's 'threat from within' due to European governments allegedly censoring free speech and their political opponents. His speech followed U.S. President Trump’s criticism of Europe's position on the Ukraine war. Highlighting the rift within NATO, the E.U. and Ukraine were left out of a meeting to find a solution to the conflict where U.S. diplomats met with Russia's foreign minister in Riyadh. This may be another facet of shifting geopolitical regimes. Despite the increasingly tense political relationship between the U.S. and Europe, the prospect of an end to the fighting in the Ukraine has contributed to calmer equity markets.

Against this backdrop, the Real Assets Index trailed Global Equities, as Global Infrastructure and Global Real Estate Securities lagged. Natural Resource Equities (GNR) led the market to outperform broader equities, followed closely by Commodity Futures. U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) lagged the broader Real Assets market. Within Global Natural Resource Equities the Agriculture segment outperformed on the strength of Ag Chemicals and Paper & Forestry, while Ag Products fell into negative territory. Companies in the Steel segment led the market despite Metals & Mining companies lagging the broader sector. Commodity Futures followed GNR equities as Energy commodities outperformed. Natural Gas led performance as cold weather boosted heating demand. Agriculture continued to perform well with continued strength in Sugar prices, accompanied by Wheat, Cocoa, Corn, and Soybean Oil. Livestock and Industrial Metals posted negative performance as Platinum performance declined the most. Both Hogs and Cattle prices were weaker in the period after a strong year-to-date run. Copper performance led the decline in Industrial Metals as the market continued to rebalance from recent short coverings. Within Global Real Estate, the U.S. lagged other global regions as securities in Canada, Japan (REITs), and Australia (Rentals) led the way, while Europe ex-UK (Office, Nordics, Residential), Asia ex-Japan (HK Developers), and the U.S. and UK lagged. In the United States, securities in the Healthcare, Hotels, and Net Lease segments led performance, while those in Specialty, Retail, Self Storage, and Office posted negative returns. Finally, within the Infrastructure segment securities in Asia Pacific (Japan) and the Americas (U.S. Oil Storage and Transport and Master Limited Partnerships) led performance while those in Europe lagged, primarily in the Communications segment.^[1]

Why it matters: Facing disruption in financial markets, trade flows, and corporate revenues, investors need to stay on their toes to factor in new information and potential outcomes. We believe that real assets should play a strategic role in investors’ portfolios, as they could potentially benefit the risk/return profile in a variety of economic and market conditions.

Macro Dive: This week, we look at recent jobs data in the U.S., price readings in Canada, and financial conditions in Australia.

• U.S. Jobs:  The Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics) released initial jobless claims data for the week ending February 15th that there were 219k initial jobless claims, which was above estimates and higher than the prior week’s 213k. Continuing claims came in at 1869k, which was also above expectations and higher than the prior figure. The elevated claims figure could signal a softer labor market and indicate that the unemployment rate could rise in coming months. It will take some time for DOGE job cuts and government employee buyouts to filter through the data. The Conference Board also released Leading index data for January which showed a contraction of -0.3%, which was below estimates and prior readings. The February release of the University of Michigan Sentiment and Current Conditions measures showed a weakening in readings as sentiment fell to 64.7, down from 67.8, and 65.7 for current conditions, down from 68.7.^[2]

• Heading North: In Canada, STCA (Statistics Canada) released price data that showed a potential sticky inflation challenge for the Bank of Canada. The Industrial Product Price index moved up 1.6% MoM, ahead of expectations of 0.8% and surpassing the prior revised figure of 0.4%. The Raw Materials Price Index showed an even faster acceleration as it rose 3.7% MoM, which was well above estimates of 2.6% and a prior reading of 1.3%. While CPI and Core inflation was last reported around the 2% level, higher input/producer costs could feed into inflation further down the line. The Bank of Canada cut rates by 25bps at its latest meeting held on January 29th.^[3]

• Down Under: The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates by 25bps to 4.10% as the unemployment rate climbed to 4.1% in January. Core inflation has declined to 2.7% annualized in December, which is just a touch above the 2.5% target. The RBA statement was particularly hawkish to tame market expectations, which are already reflecting a further 50bps of cuts by the end of 2025. The unemployment rate nudging up to 4.1%, from 4.0%, reinforces the decision to adjust rates to ease monetary conditions.^[1]

Real Assets, Real Insights: This week we will look at one funding method companies are utilizing for their data center growth plans, utilities adapting to changes in demand, and finally the equity leverage to gold prices.

• Costly Byte (Real Estate): Furthering the AI influence discussion, we turn to Sydney where the Goodman Group (GMG AU) went to capital markets to raise funding for its global data center development. The company offered a discounted share placement (via JPM, MS, RBC) to raise A$4bn for the expansion. The shares were offered at a roughly 7% discount and open market trading sent shares down as much as 7.5%. As we have seen, these projects have been prioritized by governments around the world in their race to gain or maintain digital relevancy.^[1]

• High Power (Infrastructure):  The regional transmission organization, PJM, coordinates the movement of wholesale electricity. PJM received approval from the FERC (Federal Energy Regulatory Commission) to set up a one-time fast-track process to approve new generation projects. PJM is facing a long backlog of connection projects, especially from renewables. The move by the FERC was seen as positive as the PJM could review up to 50 new shovel-ready projects starting in April. These projects will support additional resources and maintain grid reliability. The FERC also ordered PJM to revisit protocols/rules to enable construction of data centers next to power plants, a growing priority from the U.S. government. The executive branch has also released a new order claiming that the president controls all independent agency actions, including those from the FERC, upending laws dating back to 1887 which have shielded regulators from direct control by the president.^[1]

• All that glitters could be gold (Commodities): Newmont Corp’s latest quarterly profit beat expectations on higher gold output, better revenues, and favorable pricing. The company has capitalized on the strong global demand for gold as global fiscal deficits persist and inflation has been sticky. Newmont was the largest gold producer, hitting a record 6.8 million ounces in 2024. Gold miners have been reporting better earnings and the company had revenues of $5.6 billion during the quarter. Shares of the company rose as a result, which helped alleviate previous weakness on higher costs than anticipated. Costs are expected to increase again in 2025 and the company has been cautious on forward-looking production guidance.

View dashboard