Archive

Evaporating earnings?

Corporate-earnings estimates for 2020 are likely to be revised downwards substantially in the coming weeks. How hard could the S&P 500 be hit?

Americas CIO View

By: David Bianco

Compelling equity valuations on last year’s earnings

Coronavirus: Deep recession, but no depression

By: Martin Moryson

The economic slowdown in the first half of 2020 will be unprecedented. In our core scenario, we expect a rebound in the second half.

Investment Traffic Lights

In March the longest U.S. bull market finally ended. And was almost forgotten as the coronavirus pandemic, trillions in monetary and fiscal stimulus, and curfews took over.

Governments and central banks, helping largely

The stimulus measures being passed in response to the coronavirus pandemic are unprecedented. However, a recession seems inevitable. Who will ultimately have to bear the costs?

Nasty business

By: Johannes Müller

The novel coronavirus has introduced a hefty dose of uncertainty to global growth forecasts

Covid-19 and the U.S. labor market

How much should we expect unemployment rates to rise in the aftermath of the coronavirus pandemic? History offers some preliminary pointers.

2020 – coronavirus reversal and rebound

By: Stefan Kreuzkamp

Covid-19 is the paramount issue. We expect a sharp economic slowdown in the first half of 2020, followed by a subdued rebound.

The response to the Coronavirus epidemic

By: Andrew Pidden, Priscilla Lu

As long term investors we believe in investing where there is demand and critical need and long-term drivers of growth.

Americas CIO View

By: David Bianco

Cutting to Crisis Forecasts: 2020E S&P 500 EPS 125 dollars

Money-Market Perspectives

By: Geoffrey Gibbs

The Fed and money-market funds

CIO Commodity Commentary

By: Darwei Kung

Commodity-market turmoil

Responses to the pandemic

Covid-19 uncertainty cuts both ways. We remain cautiously optimistic that catastrophic outcomes can be avoided, partly due to swift fiscal and monetary-policy responses.

U.S. Economic Outlook

By: Christian Scherrmann

The economics of a pandemic

History Lessons - why do markets sell-off and then rebound

By: Francesco Curto, Sarvesh Agrawal

In a nutshell, the answer is fear. The common perception is that collapsing earning expectations during recessions drive share prices. However, they explain only a small part of the price move.