Macro
Macro
Macro | Solid over all
|
Region |
2017F |
2018F |
||
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
United States |
2.1 |
|
2.3 |
|
|
Eurozone |
1.8 |
|
1.6 |
|
|
United Kingdom |
1.6 |
|
1.3 |
|
|
Japan |
1.1 |
|
1.5 |
|
|
China |
6.5 |
|
6.3 |
|
|
World |
3.5 |
|
3.7 |
|
Region |
2017F |
2018F |
||
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
United States |
3.2 |
|
3.4 |
|
|
Eurozone |
1.5 |
|
1.5 |
|
|
United Kingdom |
3.3 |
|
3.5 |
|
|
Japan |
5.2 |
|
5.0 |
|
|
China |
3.4 |
|
3.2 |
|
Region |
2017F |
2018F |
||
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
United States1 |
1.7 |
|
1.9 |
|
|
Eurozone |
1.6 |
|
1.4 |
|
|
United Kingdom |
2.7 |
|
2.5 |
|
|
Japan |
0.7 |
|
1.0 |
|
|
China |
2.2 |
|
2.5 |
1core rate, personal consumption expenditure Dec/Dec in % (no average as for the other figures)
|
Region |
2017F |
2018F |
||
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
United States |
-2.9 |
|
-3.1 |
|
|
Eurozone |
2.9 |
|
2.7 |
|
|
United Kingdom |
-3.5 |
|
-3.5 |
|
|
Japan |
3.2 |
|
3.2 |
|
|
China |
2.2 |
|
2.4 |
|
Region |
Current* |
Mar 2018F |
||
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
United States |
1.00-1.25 |
|
1.50-1.75 |
|
|
Eurozone |
0.00 |
|
0.00 |
|
|
United Kingdom |
0.25 |
|
0.25 |
|
|
Japan |
0.00 |
|
0.00 |
|
|
China |
4.35 |
|
4.35 |
|
Current* |
Jun 2018F |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Crude oil (WTI) |
46 |
|
50 |
|
|
Gold |
1,242 |
|
1,200 |
|
|
Copper (LME) |
5,937 |
|
5,000 |
* Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.; as of 6/30/17 F refers to our forecast as of 6/22/17 WTI = West Texas Intermediate; LME = London Metal Exchange The arrows signal whether we expect to see an upward trend , a sideways trend or a downward trend . Source: Deutsche Asset Management Investment GmbH; as of 6/30/17
Equities
Equities
Equities | Regional shifts
|
Current* |
June 2018F |
Exp. total return (in %)** |
Exp. earnings growth (in %) |
P/E impact (in %) |
Dividend yield (in %) |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
United States (S&P 500 Index) |
2,423 |
|
2,450 |
3.4 |
10 |
|
2.3 |
|
|
Europe (Stoxx Europe 600 Index) |
379 |
|
400 |
9.1 |
12 |
|
3.7 |
|
|
Eurozone (Euro Stoxx 50 Index) |
3,442 |
|
3,650 |
9.8 |
11 |
|
3.8 |
|
|
Germany (Dax)1 |
12,325 |
|
13,400 |
8.7 |
9 |
|
3.1 |
|
|
United Kingdom (FTSE 100 Index) |
7,313 |
|
7,500 |
5.4 |
12 |
|
4.2 |
|
|
Switzerland (Swiss Market Index) |
8,907 |
|
8,750 |
1.5 |
10 |
|
3.3 |
|
|
Japan (MSCI Japan Index) |
959 |
|
970 |
3.5 |
12 |
|
2.3 |
|
|
1,011 |
|
1,050 |
6.6 |
14 |
|
2.7 |
||
|
625 |
|
660 |
8.1 |
16 |
|
2.6 |
||
|
2,544 |
|
2,550 |
3.1 |
17 |
|
2.9 |
F refers to our forecasts as of 6/22/17 Equity indices, exchange rates and alternative investments: The arrows signal whether we expect to see an upward trend , a sideways trend or a downward trend . The arrows' colors illustrate the return opportunities for long-only investors. positive return potential for long-only investors. limited return opportunity as well as downside risk. negative return potential for long-only investors. * Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P., FactSet Research Systems Inc.; as of 6/30/17 ** Expected total return includes interest, dividends and capital gains where applicable 1 Total-return index (includes dividends) Source: Deutsche Asset Management Investment GmbH; as of 6/30/17
Fixed Income
Fixed Income
Fixed Income | Only small rises in interest rates
|
|
|
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
United States |
||||
|
U.S. Treasuries (10-year) |
2.30% |
|
2.60% |
|
|
U.S. municipal bonds |
85% |
|
93% |
|
|
U.S. investment-grade corporates |
103 bp |
|
100 bp |
|
|
U.S. high-yield corporates |
364 bp |
|
380 bp |
|
|
Securitized: mortgage-backed securities1 |
87 bp |
|
100 bp |
|
|
Europe |
||||
|
German Bunds (10-year) |
0.47% |
|
0.80% |
|
|
UK Gilts (10-year) |
1.26% |
|
1.40% |
|
|
Euro investment-grade corporates2 |
108 bp |
|
100 bp |
|
|
Euro high-yield corporates2 |
268 bp |
|
290 bp |
|
|
Securitized: covered bonds |
46 bp |
|
75 bp |
|
|
Italy (10-year)2 |
|
|
180 bp |
|
|
Asia-Pacific |
|
|
||
|
Japanese government bonds (10-year) |
0.09% |
|
0.10% |
|
|
Asia credit |
232 bp |
|
225 bp |
|
|
Global |
||||
|
Emerging-market sovereigns |
308 bp |
|
285 bp |
|
|
Emerging-market credit |
306 bp |
|
280 bp |
F refers to our forecasts as of 6/22/17; bp = basis points For sovereign bonds, denotes rising yields, unchanged yields and falling yields. For corporates, securitized/specialties and emerging-market bonds, the arrows depict the option-adjusted spread over U.S. Treasuries. depicts a rising spread, a sideways trend and a falling spread. The arrows' colors illustrate the return opportunities for long-only investors. positive return potential for long-only investors. limited return opportunity as well as downside risk.negative return potential for long-only investors. * Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.; as of 6/30/17 1Current-coupon spread vs. 7-year U.S. Treasuries 2Spread over German Bunds Source: Deutsche Asset Management Investment GmbH; as of 6/30/17
Currencies
|
Current* |
Jun 2018F |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
EUR vs. USD |
1.14 |
|
1.10 |
|
|
USD vs. JPY |
112.4 |
|
115.0 |
|
|
EUR vs. GBP |
0.88 |
|
0.89 |
|
|
GBP vs. USD |
1.30 |
|
1.23 |
|
|
USD vs. CNY |
6.78 |
|
6.90 |
* Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.; as of 6/30/17 F refers to our forecasts as of 6/22/17 Source: Deutsche Asset Management Investment GmbH; as of 6/30/17
