Macro
Macro
Macro | Solid growth ahead
|
Region |
2017F |
2018F |
||
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
United States |
2.3 |
|
2.3 |
|
|
Eurozone |
2.3 |
|
2.0 |
|
|
United Kingdom |
1.5 |
|
1.3 |
|
|
Japan |
1.5 |
|
1.5 |
|
|
China |
6.7 |
|
6.5 |
|
|
World |
3.7 |
|
3.8 |
|
Region |
2017F |
2018F |
||
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
United States |
3.5 |
|
3.5 |
|
|
Eurozone |
1.4 |
|
1.3 |
|
|
United Kingdom |
3.3 |
|
3.5 |
|
|
Japan |
4.8 |
|
4.8 |
|
|
China |
3.4 |
|
3.2 |
|
Region |
2017F |
2018F |
||
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
United States1 |
1.5 |
|
1.8 |
|
|
Eurozone |
1.5 |
|
1.4 |
|
|
United Kingdom |
2.6 |
|
2.7 |
|
|
Japan |
0.7 |
|
1.0 |
|
|
China |
1.9 |
|
2.2 |
|
Region |
2017F |
2018F |
||
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
United States |
-2.6 |
|
-2.8 |
|
|
Eurozone |
3.1 |
|
2.9 |
|
|
United Kingdom |
-4.5 |
|
-3.5 |
|
|
Japan |
3.5 |
|
3.5 |
|
|
China |
1.8 |
|
1.8 |
|
Region |
Current* |
Dec 2018F |
||
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
United States |
1.00-1.25 |
|
1.75-2.00 |
|
|
Eurozone |
0.00 |
|
0.00 |
|
|
United Kingdom |
0.50 |
|
0.75 |
|
|
Japan |
0.00 |
|
0.00 |
|
|
China |
4.35 |
|
4.35 |
|
Current* |
Dec 2018F |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Crude oil (WTI) |
57.4 |
|
55 |
|
|
Gold |
1,275 |
|
1,230 |
|
|
Copper (LME) |
6,762 |
|
6,600 |
* Source Bloomberg Finance L.P. as of 11/30/17 1Core rate, personal consumption expenditure Dec/Dec in % (no average as for the other figures) F refers to our forecast as of 11/16/17 WTI = West Texas Intermediate LME = London Metal Exchange
The arrows signal whether we expect to see an upward trend , a sideways trend or a downward trend .
Equities
Equities
Equities | Well supported by earnings growth
|
Current* |
Dec 2018F |
Total Return (expexted)1 |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Forecast |
in % |
Expected earnings growth |
P/E impact |
Dividend yield |
||||
|
United States (S&P 500)2 |
2,648 |
|
2,750 |
6.2 |
14% |
-9% |
2.3% |
|
|
Europe (Stoxx Europe 600) |
387 |
|
405 |
8.4 |
8% |
-3% |
3.7% |
|
|
Eurozone (Euro Stoxx 50) |
3,570 |
|
3,780 |
9.6 |
9% |
-2% |
3.7% |
|
|
Germany (Dax)3 |
13,024 |
|
14,100 |
8.3 |
8% |
-3% |
3.1% |
|
|
United Kingdom (FTSE 100) |
7,327 |
|
7,400 |
5.3 |
5% |
-4% |
4.3% |
|
|
Switzerland (Swiss Market Index) |
9,319 |
|
9,450 |
4.7 |
13% |
-10% |
3.3% |
|
|
Japan (MSCI Japan Index) |
1,026 |
|
1,120 |
7.9 |
13% |
-7% |
2.4% |
|
|
1,121 |
|
1,210 |
10.7 |
15% |
-6% |
2.8% |
||
|
696 |
|
760 |
11.8 |
16% |
-5% |
2.6% |
||
|
2,719 |
|
2,850 |
7.7 |
10% |
-5% |
2.9% |
* Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P., FactSet Research Systems Inc. as of 11/30/17 1 Expected total return includes interest, dividends and capital gains where applicable 2 Revised target as of 12/4/17 3Total-return index (includes dividends) F refers to our forecasts as of 11/16/17
Equity indices, exchange rates and alternative investments: The arrows signal whether we expect to see an upward trend , a sideways trend or a downward trend . The arrows' colors illustrate the return opportunities for long-only investors. positive return potential for long-only investors. limited return opportunity as well as downside risk.negative return potential for long-only investors.
Fixed Income
Fixed Income
Fixed Income | Yields likely to rise only slowly
|
|
Dec 2018F |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
United States |
||||
|
U.S. Treasuries (10-year) |
2.41% |
|
2.60% |
|
|
U.S. municipal bonds |
92% |
|
85% |
|
|
U.S. investment-grade corporates |
92 bp |
|
80 bp |
|
|
U.S. high-yield corporates |
344 bp |
|
350 bp |
|
|
Securitized: mortgage-backed securities1 |
72 bp |
|
100 bp |
|
|
Europe |
||||
|
German Bunds (10-year) |
0.37% |
|
0.80% |
|
|
UK Gilts (10-year) |
1.33% |
|
1.40% |
|
|
Euro investment-grade corporates2 |
95 bp |
|
75 bp |
|
|
Euro high-yield corporates2 |
272 bp |
|
260 bp |
|
|
Securitized: covered bonds |
46 bp |
|
65 bp |
|
|
Italy (10-year)2 |
138 bp |
|
160 bp |
|
|
Asia-Pacific |
||||
|
Japanese government bonds (10-year) |
0.04% |
|
0.10% |
|
|
Asia credit |
229 bp |
|
210 bp |
|
|
Global |
||||
|
Emerging-market sovereigns |
288 bp |
|
285 bp |
|
|
Emerging-market credit |
285 bp |
|
270 bp |
* Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. as of 11/30/17 1Current-coupon spread vs. 7-year U.S. Treasuries 2Spread over German Bunds F refers to our forecasts as of 11/16/17 bp = basis points
Fixed Income: For sovereign bonds, denotes rising yields, unchanged yields and falling yields. For corporates, securitized/specialties and emerging-market bonds, the arrows depict the option-adjusted spread over U.S. Treasuries. depicts a rising spread, a sideways trend and a falling spread. The arrows' colors illustrate the return opportunities for long-only investors. positive return potential for long-only investors. limited return opportunity as well as downside risk.negative return potential for long-only investors.
Currencies
|
Current* |
Dec 2018F |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.19 |
|
1.15 |
||
|
USD vs. JPY |
112.5 |
|
115.0 |
|
|
EUR vs. GBP |
0.880 |
|
0.885 |
|
|
GBP vs. USD |
1.35 |
|
1.30 |
|
|
USD vs. CNY |
6.61 |
|
6.80 |
* Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. as of 11/30/17 F refers to our forecasts as of 11/16/17
