Not quite Taylored fit

When and how far U.S. interest rates should fall is quite a judgement call. Simple monetary-policy rules provide quite a wide range of plausible estimates.

No more tailwind from money supply

For a year now, equity markets have been running ahead of the money supply. You can look at it one way or another, but stocks have one less stimulus to benefit from.

Moving targets

Despite recent signs of de-escalation, trade uncertainty and expected higher prices appear set to take a toll on the U.S. economy.

Massively growing demand for natural resources

Increasing consumption in modern consumer society poses an ever-growing global challenge.

Markets won’t regret change of German government

Even if the global economic cycle and new U.S. policies might dominate markets in the short term, a change of government could provide new impetus for German equities.

Making hay - outlook still sunny in Spain?

Despite some clouds gathering, we remain optimistic about Spain’s economic prospects. Investment in machinery and equipment has been especially encouraging in Q1 2025.

Lessons from the U.S. repo-market turmoil

By: Johannes Müller

The abrupt repo-rate increase shouldn't have come as a surprise to the Fed. While short-term factors played a role, long-term bugs need to be addressed.

Learning to live with Trump

Nothing is all that certain in Washington these days. This was the backdrop against which we devel-oped the latest update to our strategic 12-month outlook.

Leading indicators of Europe’s direction

Progress on the energy transition and political commitments give cause for cautious optimism on Europe’s transformation.

Largely justified correction

Markets may remain choppy for some time but we don’t expect a bear market

Japan – still on track

By: Björn Jesch, Lilian Haag

Japan’s financial markets suffered more than most in the early August global market correction. While this shows the perils of leveraged carry trades based on a weak yen, the investment case for the country remains positive.

Is the Swiss franc about to weaken at last?

Since the financial crisis the Swiss currency has trended relentlessly higher against the euro. But recently the first signs of weakness have appeared

Is Spain becoming a model country?

The bond market bathes in the positive sentiment

Investing in the age of Artificial Intelligence

How (not) to identify the long-term beneficiaries of artificial intelligence (AI) and other types of disruptive technologies.

Innovative clusters – northern lights, transforming Europe

Largely unnoticed by many investors, innovative clusters are emerging, beyond Europe’s old industrial belts