Mar 01, 2021 Forecasts

Our forecasts

In light of the very dynamic market environment these forecasts are subject to change at any time.

to read

Macro

Uneven growth ahead

GDP growth (in %, year-on-year) 2021F 2022F
United States 5.0   3.8
Eurozone 3.5   4.5
United Kingdom 4.5   6.0
Japan 2.5   3.0
China 8.7   5.5
World 5.3   4.4
Fiscal deficit (in % of GDP) 2021F 2022F
United States 14.6   4.5
Eurozone 7.0   5.0
United Kingdom 9.0   5.0
Japan 9.0   4.0
China 11.0   10.5
Consumer price inflation (in %, year-on-year) 2021F 2022F
United States[1] 2.0   2.2
Eurozone 1.3   1.4
United Kingdom 1.5   2.1
Japan -0.3   0.5
China 1.4   2.5
Current-account balance (in % of GDP) 2021F 2022F
United States -3.5   -3.5
Eurozone 2.6   2.8
United Kingdom -4.0   -3.5
Japan 3.5   3.5
China 1.2   1.1
Benchmark rates (in %) Current[2] Mar 2022F
United States 0.00-0.25   0.00-0.25
Eurozone -0.50   -0.50
United Kingdom 0.10   0.10
Japan 0.00   0.00
China 3.85   3.55
Commodities (in dollars) Current[2] Mar 2022F
Crude oil (WTI 12M forward) 54.8   57
Gold 1,776   1,850
Copper (LME) 8,553   8,400

Equities

Recovery vs. rates

Current[3] Mar 2022F Forecast Total Return (exp.)[4]

Expected earnings growth

P/E impact

Dividend yield

United States
(S&P 500)

3,914
 
4,100 6.6% 20% -16% 1.9%

Europe
(Stoxx Europe 600)

413
 
415 3.9% 25% -25% 3.3%

Eurozone
(Euro Stoxx 50)

3,681
 
3,700 3.8% 25% -24% 3.3%

Germany
(DAX)[5]

13,887
 
14,800 6.6% 22% -19% 3.4%

United Kingdom
(FTSE 100)

6,617


 

6,750 6.7% 27% -25% 4.7%

Switzerland
(Swiss Market Index)

10,718


 

10,950 5.3% 11% -9% 3.1%

Japan
(MSCI Japan Index)

1,196
 
1,250 6.5% 14% -10% 2.1%

MSCI Emerging Markets Index
(USD)

1,425
 
1,500 7.5% 26% -21% 2.2%

MSCI AC Asia ex Japan Index
(USD)

944


 

1,000 8.0% 24% -18% 2.0%

F refers to DWS Investment GmbH forecasts as of 02/18/21

Fixed Income

Yields should stay low, after all

Current[2] Mar 2022F

United States

U.S. Treasuries (10-year) 1.30%   1.50%
U.S. municipal bonds[6] 62%   80%
U.S. investment-grade corporates 84 bp   80 bp
U.S. high-yield corporates 321 bp   330 bp
Securitized: mortgage-backed securities[7] 19 bp   39 bp
Europe
German Bunds (10-year) -0.35%   -0.30%
UK Gilts (10-year) 0.62%   0.60%
Euro investment-grade corporates[8] 95 bp   80 bp
Euro high-yield corporates[8] 322 bp   300 bp
Securitized: covered bonds[8] 31 bp   30 bp
Italy (10-year)[8] 99 bp   95 bp
Asia-Pacific
Japanese government bonds (10-year) 0.10%   0.15%
Asia credit 282 bp   250 bp
Global
Emerging-market sovereigns 347.025 bp   320 bp
Emerging-market credit 309 bp   300 bp

Currencies

Current[2] Mar 2022F
EUR vs. USD 1.21   1.15
USD vs. JPY 106   105
EUR vs. GBP 0.87   0.87
GBP vs. USD 1.40   1.32
USD vs. CNY 6.49   6.65


F refers to DWS Investment GmbH forecasts as of 2/18/21
WTI = West Texas Intermediate
LME = London Metal Exchange
bp = basis points

Legend:

  • Macro data exchange rates and alternative investments: The arrows signal whether we expect to see an upward trend  , a sideways trend  or a downward trend  .
  • The signals' colors illustrate the return opportunities for long-only investors:  positive return potential for long-only investors.  limited return opportunity as well as downside risk.  negative return potential for long-only investors.

More topics

Apr 16, 2021 ESG

51 years on, nature’s collapse continues

There is plenty for investors to think about when marking Earth Day. Sector dependency on nature is widespread, with the pharmaceutical industry especially exposed to biodiversity loss.
Apr 15, 2021 Sustainability

"Is sustainable investing a hype? Definitely not."

Sustainable investing is a huge trend – and it's here to stay, says Dr. Robin Braun, sustainability expert at DWS. In this interview he explains how responsible investing can work, what it might bring for investors and how sustainability and building value fit together.
Apr 09, 2021 Americas

Biden’s big plans for America

Infrastructure programs are economically necessary but often politically sensitive. President Biden may have hit the right time and tone and appears to be using rivalry with China as a lever.
See all articles

1 . core rate, personal consumption expenditure Dec/Dec in % (no average as for the other figures)

2 . Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. as of 2/18/21

3 . Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P., FactSet Research Systems Inc. as of 02/18/21

4 . Expected total return includes interest, dividends and capital gains where applicable. Dividends are not guaranteed. The amount of dividend payments can change or not take place at all.

5 . Total-return index (includes dividends)

6 . Ratio of 10-year AAA Municipal yield to 10-year U.S. Treasuries yield

7 . Bloomberg Barclays MBS Forward Index

8 . Spread over German Bunds

CIO View

Cookies Policy

This website uses cookies in order to improve user experience. If you accept, we will assume that you are happy with this. For more information about the cookies we use or to find out how you can change your settings, see our Cookies Notice.
Accept All Cookies

Other country

Other country