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Macro
Uneven growth ahead
| GDP growth (in %, year-on-year) | 2021F | 2022F | |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 5.0 | 3.8 | |
| Eurozone | 3.5 | 4.5 | |
| United Kingdom | 4.5 | 6.0 | |
| Japan | 2.5 | 3.0 | |
| China | 8.7 | 5.5 | |
| World | 5.3 | 4.4 |
| Fiscal deficit (in % of GDP) | 2021F | 2022F | |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 14.6 | 4.5 | |
| Eurozone | 7.0 | 5.0 | |
| United Kingdom | 9.0 | 5.0 | |
| Japan | 9.0 | 4.0 | |
| China | 11.0 | 10.5 |
| Consumer price inflation (in %, year-on-year) | 2021F | 2022F | |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States[1] | 2.0 | 2.2 | |
| Eurozone | 1.3 | 1.4 | |
| United Kingdom | 1.5 | 2.1 | |
| Japan | -0.3 | 0.5 | |
| China | 1.4 | 2.5 |
| Current-account balance (in % of GDP) | 2021F | 2022F | |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | -3.5 | -3.5 | |
| Eurozone | 2.6 | 2.8 | |
| United Kingdom | -4.0 | -3.5 | |
| Japan | 3.5 | 3.5 | |
| China | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Benchmark rates (in %) | Current[2] | Mar 2022F | |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 0.00-0.25 | 0.00-0.25 | |
| Eurozone | -0.50 | -0.50 | |
| United Kingdom | 0.10 | 0.10 | |
| Japan | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| China | 3.85 | 3.55 |
| Commodities (in dollars) | Current[2] | Mar 2022F | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crude oil (WTI 12M forward) | 54.8 | 57 | |
| Gold | 1,776 | 1,850 | |
| Copper (LME) | 8,553 | 8,400 |
Equities
Recovery vs. rates
| Current[3] | Mar 2022F Forecast | Total Return (exp.)[4] |
Expected earnings growth |
P/E impact |
Dividend yield | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
United States |
3,914 | 4,100 | 6.6% | 20% | -16% | 1.9% | |
|
Europe |
413 | 415 | 3.9% | 25% | -25% | 3.3% | |
|
Eurozone |
3,681 | 3,700 | 3.8% | 25% | -24% | 3.3% | |
|
Germany |
13,887 | 14,800 | 6.6% | 22% | -19% | 3.4% | |
|
United Kingdom |
6,617 | 6,750 | 6.7% | 27% | -25% | 4.7% | |
|
Switzerland |
10,718 | 10,950 | 5.3% | 11% | -9% | 3.1% | |
|
Japan |
1,196 | 1,250 | 6.5% | 14% | -10% | 2.1% | |
| 1,425 | 1,500 | 7.5% | 26% | -21% | 2.2% | ||
| 944 | 1,000 | 8.0% | 24% | -18% | 2.0% |
F refers to DWS Investment GmbH forecasts as of 02/18/21
Fixed Income
Yields should stay low, after all
| Current[2] | Mar 2022F | ||
|---|---|---|---|
|
United States |
|||
| U.S. Treasuries (10-year) | 1.30% | 1.50% | |
| U.S. municipal bonds[6] | 62% | 80% | |
| U.S. investment-grade corporates | 84 bp | 80 bp | |
| U.S. high-yield corporates | 321 bp | 330 bp | |
| Securitized: mortgage-backed securities[7] | 19 bp | 39 bp | |
| Europe | |||
| German Bunds (10-year) | -0.35% | -0.30% | |
| UK Gilts (10-year) | 0.62% | 0.60% | |
| Euro investment-grade corporates[8] | 95 bp | 80 bp | |
| Euro high-yield corporates[8] | 322 bp | 300 bp | |
| Securitized: covered bonds[8] | 31 bp | 30 bp | |
| Italy (10-year)[8] | 99 bp | 95 bp | |
| Asia-Pacific | |||
| Japanese government bonds (10-year) | 0.10% | 0.15% | |
| Asia credit | 282 bp | 250 bp | |
| Global | |||
| Emerging-market sovereigns | 347.025 bp | 320 bp | |
| Emerging-market credit | 309 bp | 300 bp |
Legend:
- Macro data exchange rates and alternative investments: The arrows signal whether we expect to see an upward trend , a sideways trend or a downward trend .
- The signals' colors illustrate the return opportunities for long-only investors: positive return potential for long-only investors. limited return opportunity as well as downside risk. negative return potential for long-only investors.
