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Brave new energy world

Chart of the week
Americas
Energy
Commodities

18/07/2025

The changing balance of power between the world’s leading oil producers helps explain some of the recent oddities happening in global financial markets.

 

Oil drilling rig operation on the oil platform in oil and gas industry. Industrial concept.
Brave new energy world

Every once in a while, you notice news items that fail to have quite as much of a market impact as you might have expected. Take this week’s threats of President Trump of imposing secondary tariffs on Russian oil and gas exports in 50 days, unless Russia stops its war on Ukraine. Oil markets barely shrugged. Even last month’s hostilities between Israel and Iran had little lasting effects on oil, let alone on other financial assets.

Our Chart of the Week helps to explain why. It shows how a boom has transformed the world’s energy landscape over the past 15 years. According to the most common metrics, U.S. petroleum production surpassed the combined output of Saudi Arabia and Russia in 2024.[1]The country's share of global petroleum production doubled from 11% in 2011 to 22%. About two-thirds of this comes from shale and tight formations, mainly in regions such as the . This was driven by advances in extraction technology and strategic investments, which saw U.S. oil production rise from 8.5 million s per day in 2007 to over 22.7 million in 2024. During the same period, natural gas production surged threefold, driven by abundant reserves and a growing preference for natural gas over coal as a fuel source. These changes have significant implications not only for U.S. energy policies, but also for international market dynamics.

The balance of power between the world’s oil producers has changed

Total petroleum and other liquids (thousand barrels per day)

Chart with 4 data series.
The chart has 1 X axis displaying values. Data ranges from 1992 to 2024.
The chart has 1 Y axis displaying values. Data ranges from 8314 to 102749.
End of interactive chart.

* Other Liquids includes biodiesel, ethanol, liquids produced from coal, gas, and oil shale, Orimulsion, blending components, and other hydrocarbons.
Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration, DWS Investment GmbH as of 7/15/2025

“Many of the old concerns are less relevant than they used to be, while new sources of danger are emerging,” explains Johannes Müller, Head of Research at DWS. For much of that period, the dramatic surge in petroleum production coincided with stagnant electricity load growth, reflecting energy efficiency improvements, structural economic shifts toward less energy-intensive industries, and widespread adoption of technologies like LED lighting and . However, as we described last week, data centers have lately started to drive U.S. electricity demand upwards.[2] This could also result in new areas of vulnerability. For example, the U.S. badly lags in battery technology, and the recently passed tax package will do nothing to address these weaknesses. The bigger lesson, however, is that every once in a while, it pays for veteran investors to look at the world with a fresh pair of eyes – not least in terms of figuring out what one should really worry about nowadays.

1

Investing News Network, 10/29/2024, “10 Top Oil-producing Countries (Updated 2024)”; also see Reuters, 3/11/2024, “US leads global oil production for sixth straight year- EIA” and International Energy Agency, June 2025, “Oil 2025: Analysis and forecast to 2030”.

2

DWS, 07/11/2025, “Chart of the Week: Data centers drive U.S. electricity demand.”, also see U.S. Energy Information Administration, July 2025, “Short-Term Energy Outlook”.

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