High hopes – Germany’s 2025 federal elections

Germany struggles on many fronts. This uncertainty could be exacerbated if we see protracted coalition negotiations following an inconclusive election result.

Gold-oil ratio at a five-year high

Does the historically high gold-oil ratio once again indicate a major macro shift?

Germany’s emissions fall but more is needed

Continued reductions in greenhouse gas emissions make Germany’s 2030 targets look achievable given continuing efforts – amid a still concerning global picture.

Germany’s election: what should we expect?

By: Vincenzo Vedda

Germany’s government fell in November. What new government will emerge now? Will it be able to tackle the country’s big structural economic problems? And what will it mean for German financial assets?

Germany's gas storage lags seasonal average

69% capacity trails decade average as post-Russian supply model prioritizes flexibility over early stockpiling

German election 2025: Not quite a sweeping mandate

Germany has voted. Tackling the country’s big structural economic problems still looks like a daunting task.

German construction industry is divided

Although Germany’s residential construction is weak, other construction sectors, such as civil engineering and specialised construction remain robust

German Bunds with renewed appeal

They have a balanced risk/return profile and look attractive compared to U.S. Treasuries

From zero to hero?

It is still early days when it comes to judging the likelihood of success in Europe’s drive towards strategic autonomy. But there are potential promising trends, especially on energy infrastructure.

First cracks in the dollar's dominance

By: Vincenzo Vedda

It’s the global reserve currency, a perceived safe haven and a vital unit of account for international trade – a lot is at stake.

Female Finance: the benefits of diversity

How and why we still need to do more to get more women into finance, encourage more women to invest and improve education about gender, diversity and finance.

Extraordinary forecast adjustments

The U.S. president's policies are forcing us to revise our growth and market forecasts downwards. Regardless of how U.S. tariff policy develops, enough confidence has already been destroyed to make consumers, investors and companies more cautious. We expect markets to remain volatile in the short term but in our core scenario anticipate declining uncertainty and positive equity returns for the 12 months to come.

European Transformation – finally, Europe gets a makeover

Europe is embracing digitalization and renewable energy – This will require substantial investments

Europe’s time to shine

The Trump administration's frontal assault on global trade will not spare Europe. But the main victim could be the U.S. stock market, not least because of the high valuation gap between the U.S. and Europe. Together with the reform of the German debt brake, this makes Europe's equities relatively interesting.

Europe: the wake-up call has been heard

More defence, more investment, more debt, more growth