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Our forecasts Q4 2025

Forecasts
Macro
Equities
Fixed Income
Alternatives
Currencies

25/11/2025

In light of the very dynamic market environment these forecasts are subject to change at any time.

Image depicting the stock markets

Page Summary

Macro

Mild reacceleration of growth in 2026

 

GDP growth (in %, year-on-year)

2025F

 

2026F

United States

1.9

 green arrow up 

2.1

Eurozone

1.4

red arrow down 

1.1

United Kingdom

1.4

red arrow down

1.3

Japan

1.2

red arrow down

0.7

China

5.0

red arrow down

4.5

World

3.2

 red arrow down 

3.1

Fiscal deficit (in % of GDP)

2025F

 

2026F

United States

6.4

  

6.6

Eurozone

3.4

  

3.8

United Kingdom

4.1

  

3.0

Japan

3.5

  

3.0

China

8.6

   

8.5

Consumer price inflation (in %, year-on-year)

2025F

 

2026F

United States[1]2.8

green arrow up  

2.9
Eurozone2.1

red arrow down 

2.0
United Kingdom3.4

 red arrow down

2.4
Japan3.1

 red arrow down 

2.0
China0.0

  red arrow down 

0.8

Unemployment Rate (annual average)

2025F

 

2026F

United States4.4

  

4.6
Eurozone6.4  6.3
United Kingdom4.7  5.0
Japan2.4  2.4
China5.2

  

5.1

Benchmark rates (in %)

Current

[2]

 

Dec 26F

United States3.75-4.00

  

3.00-3.25
Eurozone2.00

 yellow arrow sideway 

2.00
United Kingdom4.00

  

3.50
Japan0.50    1.00
China3.00

  

2.80

Commodities (in dollars)

Current 

[2]

 

Dec 26F

Crude oil (Brent)63.4

red arrow down

60
Gold4,077

green arrow up

4,500
Copper (LME)10,739

red arrow down

10,850

 

Equities

No end of profit growth in sight yet

Country

Current[4]

 

Dec 2026F

Forecast

Total Return (exp.)[5]

Expected earnings growth

P/E impact

Dividend yield

United States
(S&P 500)

6,734

 green circle

7,500

12.8% 

10.9% 

0.5% 

 1.5%

Europe
(Stoxx Europe 600)

572

green circle 

 600

8.3% 

7.0% 

-2.1% 

3.4% 

Eurozone
(Euro Stoxx 50)

5,650

 green circle

 5,950

8.5%

7.0%  

-1.7% 

3.2% 

Germany
(DAX)[6]

23,720

green circle

26,100 

10.0% 

11.5%

-4.4%

2.9% 

United Kingdom
(FTSE 100)

9,681

green circle

10,100

 8.0%

8.0% 

-3.7% 

 3.7%

Switzerland
(Swiss Market Index)

12,573

green circle

13,100 

7.5%

5.0% 

-0.8% 

3.3% 

Japan
(MSCI Japan Index)

2,062

 green circle

 2,200

9.0% 

7.0% 

-0.3%

2.3% 

MSCI Emerging Markets Index

(USD)

1,388

 green circle

1,480

9.5% 

13.0% 

-6.4% 

2.9% 

MSCI AC Asia ex Japan Index

(USD)

907

green circle

970

9.5%

13.0%

-6.0%

2.5%

F refers to our forecasts as of 11/20/25

 

 

Fixed Income

Central banks close to or at target rates

 

Country

Current[2]

 

Dec 2026F

United States
  

 

U.S. Treasuries(2-year)3.53%green circle

3.50%

U.S. Treasuries(10-year)4.08%green circle

4.15%

U.S. municipal bonds[8]67 bpyellow circle

70 bp

U.S. insvestment- grade corporates[8]79 bpgreen circle

85 bp

U.S. high-yield corporates[8]

302 bp

green circle

300 bp

Securitized: mortgage-backed securities[8]

135 bp

green circle

125 bp

Europe

 

 

 

German Bunds (2-year)

2.02%

yellow circle

2.00%

German Bunds (10-year)

2.72%

yellow circle

2.70%

UK Gilts (10-year)

4.59%

green circle

4.20%

Euro investment-grade corporates[12]

82 bp

green circle

85 bp

Euro high-yield corporates[12]

288 bp

yellow circle

320 bp

Securitized: Covered Bonds[12]

40 bp

yellow circle

40 bp

Italy (10-year)[12]

76 bp

yellow circle

80 bp

Asia- Pacific

 

 

 

Japanese government bonds (10-year)  

1.82%

yellow circle

1.90%

Asia credit

118 bp

green circle

130 bp

Global

 

 

 

Emerging-market sovereigns

269 bp

green circle

300 bp

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

    
Global

 

 

 

Schwellenländer-Staatsanleihen

331 bp

green circle

360 bp

Currencies

 

Currency

Current[2]

 

Dec 2026F

EUR vs. USD115 yellow arrow sideway 1.15
USD vs. JPY157  145
EUR vs. GBP0.88  0.85
GBP vs. USD1.31  1.35
USD vs. CNY7.12  7.15

F refers to our forecasts as of 20/11/25
LME = London Metal Exchange
bp = basis points

Legend:

  • Macro data exchange rates and alternative investments: The arrows signal whether we expect to see an upward trend green arrow upa sideways trend yellow arrow sideway   or a downward trend red arrow down.
  • The signals' colors illustrate the return opportunities for long-only investors:  green circlepositive return potential for long-only investors. yellow circle limited return opportunity as well as downside risk.  red circlenegative return potential for long-only investors.