Important security note: Warning of attempted fraud in the name of DWS
We have detected that fraudulent individuals are misusing the "DWS" trademark and the names of DWS employees on the internet and social media. These fraudsters are operating fake websites, Facebook pages, WhatsApp groups and Mobile Apps. Please be aware that DWS does not have any Facebook Ambassador profiles or WhatsApp chats. If you receive any unexpected calls, messages, or emails claiming to be from DWS, exercise caution and do not make any payments or disclose personal information. We encourage you to report any suspicious activity to info@dws.com, including any relevant documents and the original fraudulent email. Additionally, if you believe you have been a victim of fraud, please notify your local authorities and take steps to protect yourself.
25/11/2025
In light of the very dynamic market environment these forecasts are subject to change at any time.
GDP growth (in %, year-on-year) | 2025F | 2026F | |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 1.9 | 2.1 | |
| Eurozone | 1.4 | 1.1 | |
| United Kingdom | 1.4 | 1.3 | |
| Japan | 1.2 | 0.7 | |
| China | 5.0 | 4.5 | |
| World | 3.2 | 3.1 | |
Fiscal deficit (in % of GDP) | 2025F | 2026F | |
| United States | 6.4 | 6.6 | |
| Eurozone | 3.4 | 3.8 | |
| United Kingdom | 4.1 | 3.0 | |
| Japan | 3.5 | 3.0 | |
| China | 8.6 | 8.5 | |
Consumer price inflation (in %, year-on-year) | 2025F | 2026F | |
| United States[1] | 2.8 | 2.9 | |
| Eurozone | 2.1 | 2.0 | |
| United Kingdom | 3.4 | 2.4 | |
| Japan | 3.1 | 2.0 | |
| China | 0.0 | 0.8 | |
Unemployment Rate (annual average) | 2025F | 2026F | |
| United States | 4.4 | 4.6 | |
| Eurozone | 6.4 | 6.3 | |
| United Kingdom | 4.7 | 5.0 | |
| Japan | 2.4 | 2.4 | |
| China | 5.2 | 5.1 | |
Benchmark rates (in %) | Current[2] | Dec 26F | |
| United States | 3.75-4.00 | 3.00-3.25 | |
| Eurozone | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| United Kingdom | 4.00 | 3.50 | |
| Japan | 0.50 | 1.00 | |
| China | 3.00 | 2.80 | |
Commodities (in dollars) | Current[2] | Dec 26F | |
| Crude oil (Brent) | 63.4 | 60 | |
| Gold | 4,077 | 4,500 | |
| Copper (LME) | 10,739 | 10,850 |
Country | Current[4] | Dec 2026FForecast | Total Return (exp.)[5] | Expected earnings growth | P/E impact | Dividend yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
United States | 6,734 | | 7,500 | 12.8% | 10.9% | 0.5% | 1.5% |
Europe | 572 | 600 | 8.3% | 7.0% | -2.1% | 3.4% | |
Eurozone | 5,650 | | 5,950 | 8.5% | 7.0% | -1.7% | 3.2% |
Germany | 23,720 | 26,100 | 10.0% | 11.5% | -4.4% | 2.9% | |
United Kingdom | 9,681 | 10,100 | 8.0% | 8.0% | -3.7% | 3.7% | |
Switzerland | 12,573 | 13,100 | 7.5% | 5.0% | -0.8% | 3.3% | |
Japan | 2,062 | | 2,200 | 9.0% | 7.0% | -0.3% | 2.3% |
MSCI Emerging Markets Index (USD) | 1,388 | | 1,480 | 9.5% | 13.0% | -6.4% | 2.9% |
MSCI AC Asia ex Japan Index (USD) | 907 | 970 | 9.5% | 13.0% | -6.0% | 2.5% |
F refers to our forecasts as of 11/20/25
Country | Current[2] | Dec 2026F | |
|---|---|---|---|
United States | |||
| U.S. Treasuries(2-year) | 3.53% | 3.50% | |
| U.S. Treasuries(10-year) | 4.08% | 4.15% | |
| U.S. municipal bonds[8] | 67 bp | 70 bp | |
| U.S. insvestment- grade corporates[8] | 79 bp | 85 bp | |
| U.S. high-yield corporates[8] | 302 bp | 300 bp | |
| Securitized: mortgage-backed securities[8] | 135 bp | 125 bp | |
Europe |
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| German Bunds (2-year) | 2.02% | 2.00% | |
| German Bunds (10-year) | 2.72% | 2.70% | |
| UK Gilts (10-year) | 4.59% | 4.20% | |
| Euro investment-grade corporates[12] | 82 bp | 85 bp | |
| Euro high-yield corporates[12] | 288 bp | 320 bp | |
| Securitized: Covered Bonds[12] | 40 bp | 40 bp | |
| Italy (10-year)[12] | 76 bp | 80 bp | |
Asia- Pacific |
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| Japanese government bonds (10-year) | 1.82% | 1.90% | |
| Asia credit | 118 bp | 130 bp | |
Global |
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| Emerging-market sovereigns | 269 bp | 300 bp | |
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Global |
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| Schwellenländer-Staatsanleihen | 331 bp | 360 bp |
Currency | Current[2] | Dec 2026F | |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR vs. USD | 115 | | 1.15 |
| USD vs. JPY | 157 | 145 | |
| EUR vs. GBP | 0.88 | 0.85 | |
| GBP vs. USD | 1.31 | 1.35 | |
| USD vs. CNY | 7.12 | 7.15 |
F refers to our forecasts as of 20/11/25
LME = London Metal Exchange
bp = basis points
Quarterly CIO View Forecasts
Miscellaneous