Investment Traffic Lights

The monthly Investment Traffic Lights provide a detailed market analysis and our view on developments in the main asset classes. 

Inflation risks on the horizon

Past El Niño episodes show agricultural prices can react late and unevenly. Nevertheless, the current risks need to be taken seriously.

Inflation expectations management

Not so long ago, Eurozone inflation was almost too dull to mention. Nowadays, the opposite risk looms: rising factory-price expectations deserve attention – but not panic.

How oil shocks can breed demand destruction

When it comes to oil, the price spikes grab attention. Their more lasting effect may be demand that disappears - and does not fully return.

How food inflation travels

Rising food prices hit emerging-market consumers hard, but shared commodity shocks could have unforeseen implications for inflation around the globe.

High-yield bonds under a new rates regime

How risk, valuation and liquidity are evolving in credit markets

High rates, high stakes

Brazil’s central bank looks set to remain hawkish. Structural reforms following next year’s elections could help unlock the country’s potential.

Gold-oil ratio at a five-year high

Does the historically high gold-oil ratio once again indicate a major macro shift?

Gold in the stress test

How the precious metal behaves relative to the S&P 500 across different market phases.

Germany's gas storage lags seasonal average

69% capacity trails decade average as post-Russian supply model prioritizes flexibility over early stockpiling

Germany: Better than sentiment suggests

By: Dr Stefan Hoops, Vincenzo Vedda

Recent growth figures, leading indicators and financial market signals suggest that Germany's economy is performing better than prevailing sentiment implies.

German construction industry is divided

Although Germany’s residential construction is weak, other construction sectors, such as civil engineering and specialised construction remain robust

From zero to hero?

It is still early days when it comes to judging the likelihood of success in Europe’s drive towards strategic autonomy. But there are potential promising trends, especially on energy infrastructure.

French fatigue, not a Euro crisis

France has a spending problem for which its political parties have so far offered no solutions. We do not see a euro crisis in this; the markets could even take some of the work off the ECB’s hands.

France's debt problem is not Europe's crisis

France’s fiscal problems are serious, but stronger external balances and institutional safeguards make a repeat of the earlier euro crisis unlikely.