Macro

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Economic Overview

May 13, 2025 U.S. Economic Outlook

Recession odds remain elevated

Uncertainty and higher prices expected to take a toll on the economy.

Macro, Americas

May 09, 2025 Chart of the week

How recessions affect earnings per share

In addition to the severity of the recession, inflation will be an important factor during this phase.

Equities, Macro

Apr 25, 2025 Chart of the week

Bitcoin – a certain kind of hedge?

Short-term high correlation with the Nasdaq should not be over-interpreted

Währungen, Equities, Macro

Apr 24, 2025 CIO Flash

Extraordinary forecast adjustments

The U.S. president's policies are forcing us to revise our growth and market forecasts downwards. Regardless of how U.S. tariff policy develops, enough confidence has already been destroyed to make consumers, investors and companies more cautious. We expect markets to remain volatile in the short term but in our core scenario anticipate declining uncertainty and positive equity returns for the 12 months to come.

Macro, Equities, Alternatives

Apr 14, 2025 CIO Special

Europe’s time to shine

The Trump administration's frontal assault on global trade will not spare Europe. But the main victim could be the U.S. stock market, not least because of the high valuation gap between the U.S. and Europe. Together with the reform of the German debt brake, this makes Europe's equities relatively interesting.

Equities, Europe