i

Important security note: Warning of attempted fraud in the name of DWS

We have detected that fraudulent individuals are misusing the "DWS" trademark and the names of DWS employees on the internet and social media. These fraudsters are operating fake websites, Facebook pages, WhatsApp groups and Mobile Apps. Please be aware that DWS does not have any Facebook Ambassador profiles or WhatsApp chats. If you receive any unexpected calls, messages, or emails claiming to be from DWS, exercise caution and do not make any payments or disclose personal information. We encourage you to report any suspicious activity to info@dws.com, including any relevant documents and the original fraudulent email. Additionally, if you believe you have been a victim of fraud, please notify your local authorities and take steps to protect yourself.

Our fore­casts Q3 2026

Forecasts
Macro
Equities
Renten
Alternatives
Currencies

9/9/2026

In light of the very dynamic market environment these forecasts are subject to change at any time.

Smartphone displaying financial charts in an urban setting.

Page Sum­mary

Macro

Growth ok, public debt less so
All

 

GDP growth (in %, year-on-year)

2026F

 

2027F

United States

2.1

red arrow down

2.0

Eurozone0.9

  

1.3
United Kingdom

1.1

  

1.2

Japan

0.8

  

1.0

China

4.6

red arrow down

4.5

World

3.0

  

 

3.3

Fiscal deficit (in % of GDP)

2026F

 

2027F

United States

6.3

  

6.4

Eurozone

3.6

  

3.7

United Kingdom

3.8

  

3.5

Japan

3.3

  

3.3

China

8.1

  

8.3

Consumer price inflation (in %, year-on-year)

2026F

 

2027F

United States[1]3.2

    

2.3
Eurozone3.1

    

 

2.5
United Kingdom3.0

 red arrow down

2.4
Japan2.0

    

1.8
China0.8  1.0

Unemployment Rate (annual average)

2026F

 

2027F

United States4.4

  

4.4
Eurozone6.3

  

6.1
United Kingdom5.1

   

5.4
Japan2.5

  

2.5
China5.1  5.1

Benchmark rates (in %)

Current

[2]

 

Sept 27F

United States3.50-3.75

   

3.75-4.00
Eurozone2.25

   

2.50
United Kingdom3.75

  

3.75
Japan1.00  1.75
China3.00

  

3.00

Commodities (in dollars)

Current 

[2]

 

Sept 27F

Crude oil (Brent)95.5

red arrow down

79
Gold4,473

green arrow up

5,000

 

Equities

Peak earnings growth in 2026

Country

Current[3]

 

Jun 2027F

Forecast

Total Return (exp.)[4]

Expected earnings growth

P/E impact

Dividend yield

United States (S&P 500)

7,719

 green circle

8,400

10.2%

12.5%

-3.6% 

 1.4%

Europe (Stoxx Europe 600)

649

 green circle 

 690

9.7% 

10.2%

-4.0% 

3.4% 

Eurozone (Euro Stoxx 50)

6,405

 green circle

 6,900

11.0%

12.1%

-4.3% 

3.2% 

Germany (Dax)[5]

25,978

green circle

28,600

10.2% 

11.6%

-4.3%

2.8% 

United Kingdom (FTSE 100)

10,824

green circle

11,300

7.9%

7.7%

-3.2% 

 3.5%

Switzerland (Swiss Market Index)

14,106

green circle

15,150

10.6%

9.8% 

-2.3% 

3.1% 

Japan (MSCI Japan Index)

2,521

 green circle

2,760

11.7% 

12.9% 

-3.4%

2.2% 

MSCI Emerging Markets Index (USD)

 

1,726

 green circle

1,790

6.6% 

26.2% 

-22.5% 

2.9% 

MSCI AC Asia ex Japan Index (USD)

 

1,140

green circle

1,180

6.2%

31.0%

-27.6%

2.7%

F refers to our forecasts as of 9/3/26

What’s driv­ing the AI rally? Watch the video now.

AI as a glob­al in­vest­ment cycle – how sus­tain­able could the equity rally be?

6/3/2026

Artificial intelligence is emerging as a dominant market driver, fueled by a global investment cycle that reshapes growth, earnings, and capital flows across asset classes, while increasing selectivity as expectations rise.

02:15

Fixed Income

Sovereign bond yields keep on climbing

 

Country

Current[6]

 

Sept 2027F

United States
  

 

U.S. Treasuries (2-year)4.34%yellow circle

4.00%

U.S. Treasuries ( (10-year)4.77%green circle

4.50%

U.S. municipal bonds[7]53 bpgreen circle

60 bp

U.S. investment-grade corporates[7]74 bpgreen circle

85 bp

U.S. high-yield corporates[7]

264 bp

green circle

300 bp

Securitized: mortgage-backed securities[7]

109 bp

green circle

100 bp

Europe

 

 

 

German Bunds (2-year)

2.96%

yellow circle

2.60%

German Bunds (10-year)

3.34%

green circle

3.10%

UK Gilts(10-year)

5.13%

green circle

4.40%

Euro investment-grade corporates[8]

78 bp

green circle

80 bp

Euro high-yield corporates[8]

263 bp

green circle

280 bp

Securitized: Covered bonds[8]

36 bp

yellow circle

30 bp

Italy (10-year)[8]

82 bp

green circle

60 bp

Asia- Pacific

 

 

 

Japanese government bonds (10-year)  

2.96%

yellow circle

3.00%

Asia credit

108 bp

green circle

125 bp

Global

 

 

 

Emerging-market sovereigns

236 bp

green circle

240 bp

Yields are rising – what’s behind it? Watch the video now.

Yields at new highs – risk or op­por­tun­ity for in­vestors?

6/3/2026

Rising real yields and tighter financial conditions are driving bond markets, while the oil price shock increasingly weighs on growth and creates a more balanced mix of risks and opportunities across maturities.

01:56

OUR FORECASTS

 

Currency

Current[2]

 

Sept 2027F

EUR vs. USD1.16    1.20
USD vs. JPY156  150
EUR vs. GBP0.86  0.85
GBP vs. USD1.35  1.42
USD vs. CNY6.72  6.60

F refers to our forecasts as of 9/3/26
LME = London Metal Exchange
bp = basis points

Legend:

  • Macro data, exchange rates and alternative investments: The arrows signal whether we expect to see an upward trend green arrow upa sideways trend yellow arrow sideway   or a downward trend red arrow down.
  • The signals' colors illustrate the return opportunities for long-only investors:  green circlepositive return potential for long-only investors. yellow circle limited return opportunity as well as downside risk.  red circlenegative return potential for long-only investors.

Explore more from the CIO

The Fed’s next move is no longer ob­vi­ous

Chart of the week

9/11/2026

Economists expect gradual cuts. Markets see a less comfortable possibility: resilient growth and persistent inflation could force the Fed to raise rates again.

Low-angle view of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco building, featuring tall stone columns against a partly cloudy sky.

In­vest­ment Traffic Lights

Investment Traffic Lights

9/9/2026

The monthly Investment Traffic Lights provide a detailed market analysis and our view on developments in the main asset classes. 

Traffic Light showing green, yellow and red signals at an urban intersection between two office buildings

Amer­icas CIO View

Americas CIO View

9/8/2026

A numerator vs. denominator race at beta, alpha has no style

Dis­cov­er more

Index returns do not reflect fees or expenses, and it is not possible to invest directly in an index. All opinions and claims are based upon data on 5/19/26 and may not come to pass. This information is subject to change at any time, based upon economic, market and other considerations and should not be construed as a recommendation. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models that may prove to be incorrect. Alternative investments may be speculative and involve significant risks including illiquidity, heightened potential for loss and lack of transparency. Alternatives are not suitable for all clients. DWS Investment GmbH.

Important information 

DWS is the brand name of DWS Group GmbH & Co. KGaA and its subsidiaries under which they do business. The DWS legal entities offering products or services are specified in the relevant documentation. DWS, through DWS Group GmbH & Co. KGaA, its affiliated companies and its officers and employees (collectively “DWS”) are communicating this document in good faith and on the following basis.

This document is for information/discussion purposes only and does not constitute an offer, recommendation or solicitation to conclude a transaction and should not be treated as investment advice.

This document is intended to be a marketing communication, not a financial analysis. Accordingly, it may not comply with legal obligations requiring the impartiality of financial analysis or prohibiting trading prior to the publication of a financial analysis.

This document contains forward looking statements. Forward looking statements include, but are not limited to assumptions, estimates, projections, opinions, models and hypothetical performance analysis. No representation or warranty is made by DWS as to the reasonableness or completeness of such forward looking statements. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

The information contained in this document is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. DWS does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness or fairness of such information. All third party data is copyrighted by and proprietary to the provider. DWS has no obligation to update, modify or amend this document or to otherwise notify the recipient in the event that any matter stated herein, or any opinion, projection, forecast or estimate set forth herein, changes or subsequently becomes inaccurate.

Investments are subject to various risks. Detailed information on risks is contained in the relevant offering documents.

No liability for any error or omission is accepted by DWS. Opinions and estimates may be changed without notice and involve a number of assumptions which may not prove valid.

DWS does not give taxation or legal advice.

This document may not be reproduced or circulated without DWS’s written authority.

This document is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, including the United States, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subject DWS to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction not currently met within such jurisdiction. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of, and to observe, such restrictions.

© 2026 DWS Investment GmbH

Issued in the UK by DWS Investments UK Limited which is authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority.
© 2026 DWS Investments UK Limited

In Hong Kong, this document is issued by DWS Investments Hong Kong Limited. The content of this document has not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission.
© 2026 DWS Investments Hong Kong Limited

In Singapore, this document is issued by DWS Investments Singapore Limited. The content of this document has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
© 2026 DWS Investments Singapore Limited

In Australia, this document is issued by DWS Investments Australia Limited (ABN: 52 074 599 401) (AFSL 499640). The content of this document has not been reviewed by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.
© 2026 DWS Investments Australia Limited

For institutional / professional investors in Taiwan:

This document is distributed to professional investors only and not others. Investing involves risk. The value of an investment and the income from it will fluctuate and investors may not get back the principal invested. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. This is a marketing communication. It is for informational purposes only. This document does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security and shall not be deemed an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The views and opinions expressed herein, which are subject to change without notice, are those of the issuer or its affiliated companies at the time of publication. Certain data used are derived from various sources believed to be reliable, but the accuracy or completeness of the data is not guaranteed and no liability is assumed for any direct or consequential losses arising from their use. The duplication, publication, extraction or transmission of the contents, irrespective of the form, is not permitted.

DWS Investment GmbH as of 09/03/25 RBA 0086_102641_9