How oil shocks can breed demand destruction

When it comes to oil, the price spikes grab attention. Their more lasting effect may be demand that disappears - and does not fully return.

High rates, high stakes

Brazil’s central bank looks set to remain hawkish. Structural reforms following next year’s elections could help unlock the country’s potential.

Gold-oil ratio at a five-year high

Does the historically high gold-oil ratio once again indicate a major macro shift?

Gold in the stress test

How the precious metal behaves relative to the S&P 500 across different market phases.

Germany’s election: what should we expect?

By: Vincenzo Vedda

Germany’s government fell in November. What new government will emerge now? Will it be able to tackle the country’s big structural economic problems? And what will it mean for German financial assets?

Germany's gas storage lags seasonal average

69% capacity trails decade average as post-Russian supply model prioritizes flexibility over early stockpiling

German construction industry is divided

Although Germany’s residential construction is weak, other construction sectors, such as civil engineering and specialised construction remain robust

German Bunds with renewed appeal

They have a balanced risk/return profile and look attractive compared to U.S. Treasuries

From zero to hero?

It is still early days when it comes to judging the likelihood of success in Europe’s drive towards strategic autonomy. But there are potential promising trends, especially on energy infrastructure.

First cracks in the dollar's dominance

By: Vincenzo Vedda

It’s the global reserve currency, a perceived safe haven and a vital unit of account for international trade – a lot is at stake.

Female Finance: the benefits of diversity

How and why we still need to do more to get more women into finance, encourage more women to invest and improve education about gender, diversity and finance.

Europe’s time to shine

The Trump administration's frontal assault on global trade will not spare Europe. But the main victim could be the U.S. stock market, not least because of the high valuation gap between the U.S. and Europe. Together with the reform of the German debt brake, this makes Europe's equities relatively interesting.

EUR/USD rate is caught in a sideways trend

The euro may need fresh impetus from Europe to gain further momentum

Energy shocks fade. Their echo does not.

When prices jump, households adjust fast. Their expectations do not.

Does the Fed’s balance sheet have a price tag?

Even a quieter, less interventionist Fed would only shrink its footprint very cautiously. Partly this reflects changes to the financial plumbing in recent decades.