Regime change of a different kind

Venezuela’s turmoil offers a test case of how oil and metals shocks can ripple through inflation and rates, as the energy transition rewrites old market rules.

Recession odds remain elevated

Uncertainty and higher prices expected to take a toll on the economy.

Rational Exuberance

2026 may be a good year for risky assets

Q2 2026 Outlook: Central & Eastern Europe Markets

By: Sebastian Kahlfeld

Global emerging markets remain volatile, while Emerging Europe appears relatively resilient due to integration with Western Europe, EU funding, and nearshoring tailwinds amid ongoing geopolitical and valuation related risks.

Productivity’s hidden warning

U.S. productivity is rising, but workers’ pay is not keeping up with inflation. That makes the latest data more difficult to read.

Oil shocks don’t bite like they used to

Decades of efficiency and electrification have defanged a once-feared macro risk — even as Middle East tensions keep markets jumpy.

No massive sell-off of U.S. securities

Foreign investors reduced their holdings of U.S. assets in April, but only to a very small extent

Markets between Energy shock and AI boom

Rising energy prices weigh on growth and inflation, while AI-driven investment continues to support selected segments and drive increasing divergence across markets.

Market backdrop: Good, with “ifs” and “buts”

Benign, for now: Our forecasts for the next 12 months

Inflation risks on the horizon

Past El Niño episodes show agricultural prices can react late and unevenly. Nevertheless, the current risks need to be taken seriously.

Inflation expectations management

Not so long ago, Eurozone inflation was almost too dull to mention. Nowadays, the opposite risk looms: rising factory-price expectations deserve attention – but not panic.

How oil shocks can breed demand destruction

When it comes to oil, the price spikes grab attention. Their more lasting effect may be demand that disappears - and does not fully return.

High-yield bonds under a new rates regime

How risk, valuation and liquidity are evolving in credit markets

High rates, high stakes

Brazil’s central bank looks set to remain hawkish. Structural reforms following next year’s elections could help unlock the country’s potential.

Gold-oil ratio at a five-year high

Does the historically high gold-oil ratio once again indicate a major macro shift?