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European Real Estate Debt Opportunities

Alternatives
Real Estate

25/2/2025

Cartsen Lieser headshot

Cartsen Lieser

Property Market Research, Europe

real-estate-strategic-outlooks

IN A NUTSHELL

  • Financing gap and more restrictive lending from the traditional lenders is an potential opportunity for alternative lenders, in a de-risking environment with stabilising values and a recovering investment market.
  • Basel IV has a tightening effect on banks credit standards, already visible in lending sentiment and surveys while overall debt margins in Europe seem to follow an opposite trend.
  • This is most pronounced for higher leveraged debt, such as whole loans and development financing, which look increasingly attractive given elevated margins compared to senior loans.
  • Supply shortage, falling development activity, construction sector insolvencies and the shift toward high-quality assets support development financings in particular.
  • We favor residential including PBSA and co-living, logistics and selective prime offices offering attractive risk premiums.

Restrictive Bank Lending Sentiment

 

Opportunities for private debt as market recovers

While the overall market sentiment in Europe is recovering, recent surveys of German credit institutions with exposure to the real estate market point to stricter lending conditions from banks. Banks reported more restrictive lending behaviour compared to pre-crisis levels. Quantitative criteria, such as debt yield, LTV and DSC have tightened, while pre-sale and pre-rental quotas are being enforced more rigorously, posing challenges in the current market.

Survey participants expect the crisis to persist throughout 2025, with both the real estate market and in-house real estate loan portfolios viewed as high-risk. Follow-up financing remains a key challenge amid elevated borrowing cost. In the case of office and retail properties, 90% of survey participants see a high or very high risk, while the level is significantly lower at 40% for hotel and logistics. Eventually, this most likely leads to a financing gap, which we see as an opportunity for private debt vehicles, as market fundamentals remain supportive as well. Prime yields have stabilized, and prime capital values turned positive given low supply and strong rental growth.

European Real Estate Debt Opportunities
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