How oil shocks can breed demand destruction

When it comes to oil, the price spikes grab attention. Their more lasting effect may be demand that disappears - and does not fully return.

How food inflation travels

Rising food prices hit emerging-market consumers hard, but shared commodity shocks could have unforeseen implications for inflation around the globe.

High-yield bonds under a new rates regime

How risk, valuation and liquidity are evolving in credit markets

High rates, high stakes

Brazil’s central bank looks set to remain hawkish. Structural reforms following next year’s elections could help unlock the country’s potential.

Gold-oil ratio at a five-year high

Does the historically high gold-oil ratio once again indicate a major macro shift?

Gold in the stress test

How the precious metal behaves relative to the S&P 500 across different market phases.

Germany's gas storage lags seasonal average

69% capacity trails decade average as post-Russian supply model prioritizes flexibility over early stockpiling

Germany: Better than sentiment suggests

By: Dr Stefan Hoops, Vincenzo Vedda

Recent growth figures, leading indicators and financial market signals suggest that Germany's economy is performing better than prevailing sentiment implies.

German construction industry is divided

Although Germany’s residential construction is weak, other construction sectors, such as civil engineering and specialised construction remain robust

From zero to hero?

It is still early days when it comes to judging the likelihood of success in Europe’s drive towards strategic autonomy. But there are potential promising trends, especially on energy infrastructure.

French fatigue, not a Euro crisis

France has a spending problem for which its political parties have so far offered no solutions. We do not see a euro crisis in this; the markets could even take some of the work off the ECB’s hands.

France's debt problem is not Europe's crisis

France’s fiscal problems are serious, but stronger external balances and institutional safeguards make a repeat of the earlier euro crisis unlikely.

First cracks in the dollar's dominance

By: Vincenzo Vedda

It’s the global reserve currency, a perceived safe haven and a vital unit of account for international trade – a lot is at stake.

European earnings under scrutiny

European earnings have accelerated. Whether that warrants a lasting rerating will depend on how broadly and durably profits continue to grow.

Europe’s gas stores tell only half the story

A changing gas market may be making gas storage levels a less reliable guide to winter risks. Still, there are good reasons to worry about upcoming heating bills.