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Altitude Sickness: Breathe, go slowly, stick to the big markers
New world order for trade: What Next?
Foreign investors rethink US assets, but the S&P 500 is global and digital
Revisiting R^: How does the fiscal deficit affect the neutral Fed Funds rate?
Not your father’s stagflation: It’s a virtual reality
A.I. is growing quickly and is very hungry: S&P firms provide the essentials
Time to Turn Back?: Return to Growth or seek US equity alternatives?
Investing in a Fog of War and Haze of AI Transition
Lift off: To those that boldly go!
Mother of all profit cycles vs. secular climb in yields
A numerator vs. denominator race at beta, alpha has no style
U.S. productivity is improving. In aggregate economic data, however, the AI dividend remains easier to imagine than to measure.
The AI universe continues to expand rapidly, and the list of beneficiaries is long. At the same time, potential risks are emerging, reinforcing our conviction in selective stock picking.
We believe that artificial intelligence will continue to drive the markets in 2026 – both positively and negatively. Its possibilities remain exciting. But investors will become more selective.
Despite recognizable parallels with developments under the 1985 Plaza Accord, concerns about a very rapid and excessive decline in the U.S. dollar seem exaggerated.
