Jul 02, 2021

Home run for U.S. real estate?

All ingredients appear to be aligned for profitable years ahead in the U.S. real-estate market, lest Covid has erased all historical patterns.

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In our view, the macroeconomic backdrop is supportive for U.S. real estate.

Strong economic growth, low real yields and rising inflation are the ingredients for robust real-estate performance. In 2021, the U.S. economy is forecasted to grow at its strongest rate since 1984.[1] Accelerating growth generally means more jobs and spending, which traditionally translates into leasing (i.e., demand) at residential and commercial properties. Meanwhile, low interest rates enhance the appeal of real-estate yields and suppress the cost of mortgaging property.

Inflation is another consideration. Historically, real estate has performed well as a hedge against rising prices. Rents typically respond positively to inflation as rising earnings support nominal rental demand, while higher construction costs restrict supply. Over time, real-estate prices converge to replacement costs, which are directly tied to inflation. Inflation is currently elevated; whether this is transitory or more persistent remains to be seen, but in the short-term at least, it should support real estate.

As our Chart of the Week shows, a model based on these macro factors paints a bright picture for real estate, with returns greater than 20% in 2021.[2] Importantly, the regression model[3] is statistically significant and explains about half of real estate's historical performance. The model is not perfect: It does not account for demographics, e-commerce, remote working, and other factors that can impact the asset class. And that might have undergone structural changes during the pandemic. Nevertheless, it makes a strong case for real estate over the next year.

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This time is different

Despite last month's weak payroll figures, the turnaround in U.S. labor markets has been dramatic.

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Jul 01, 2021 Macro

Market Outlook | Things are so good that it's time for a break

A buoyant economic recovery, record stock markets and calm bond markets. Things have been going all too well and the next surprises are unlikely to be positive.

Charts of the week

Mar 26, 2021

Commercial real estate as a hedge against inflation

Commercial-real-estate prices are driven by many factors, including inflation. Rising inflation expectations are likely to support this segment of the property market.

1. DWS and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis as of June 2021.

2. NCREIF (Real Estate), Federal Reserve (Yields), U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (Inflation), DWS (CIO Office Economic Assumptions) as of June 2021.

3. It helps to estimate the relationship between one dependent and one or more independent variables.

CIO View

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