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11/20/2024
The investment routes to express European Transformation
In this paper, we explore the case for Europe as an investment location. We show how the policy and regulatory environment across the continent is increasingly being tilted to address structural challenges such as weak competitiveness as well as towards unlocking capital investment to finance sector transformation. We then delve into the characteristics of Alternatives as an asset class. Finally, we assess specific investment opportunities within the infrastructure, real estate, and direct lending sectors.
Europe has long been a leader in sustainability policy, but the re-election of U.S. President Trump, with his commitment to trade tariffs, poses a significant risk for Europe. Additionally, ongoing geopolitical risks, including Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, further drive the need for European transformation. Major issues were identified, and recommendations made in important reports from former Italian Prime Minister Letta[1] and former European Central Bank President Draghi.[2] These reports echo the findings and efforts of DWS from our European Transformation initiative since December 2022.
Europe stands as a global success story in sustainability and social inclusion, two of the world’s most critical issues. Europe has more ambitious climate targets compared to the U.S. and China, i.e. a 55% reduction from 1990 levels by 2030,[3] compared to the U.S.’s 50-52% reduction from 2005 levels, which translates to about 43-45% from 1990 levels,[4] and China’s target focuses on peaking emissions prior to 2030 and improving carbon intensity.[5]
Since 1990, Europe has seen its greenhouse gas emissions decline by 33.9% or -1.2% on a compound annual growth rate (CAGR). This compares to a CAGR decline of just 0.1% CAGR in the United States and a rise of more than 3% for China and India.[6] When it comes to the adoption of renewables, Europe has achieved 44% of its power generation stemming from this source.[7] The equivalent share in the United States is just 23%. Europe also leads on most dimensions of economic inclusion and social progress, including income inequality and life expectancy.[8] The missing piece to the region’s appeal as an investment location is the continent’s performance in terms of economic growth and productivity. This has become a central pillar of the European Commission’s efforts to addressing the region’s competitive position.
Three strategic priorities to address Europe’s competitiveness were well summarized in the recent report by a former Italian prime minister Mario Draghi: Europe needs to digitalize and decarbonize the economy and increase its defence capacity.[9] Digitalization should address Europe’s productivity problem, fostering innovation and efficiency. Decarbonization is crucial not only for meeting ambitious greenhouse gas (GHG) targets but also for transitioning to secure low-cost clean energy sources. In an era of rising geopolitical tensions, reducing dependencies and increasing security by diversifying suppliers of critical raw materials and minimizing reliance on imported digital technology should strengthen Europe’s resilience and strategic autonomy.