How recessions affect earnings per share

Despite recent signs of de-escalation, trade uncertainty and expected higher prices appear set to take a toll on the U.S. economy.

Recession odds remain elevated

Uncertainty and higher prices expected to take a toll on the economy.

How recessions affect earnings per share

In addition to the severity of the recession, inflation will be an important factor during this phase.

Igniting European transformation

By: Michael Lewis, Jay Joshi, Murray Birt, Maria Milina

Transformation guided by a northern light

Frank Kelly’s Geopolitical Week Ahead | May 4, 2025

By: Francis (Frank) J. Kelly

Washington is likely to be buzzing with visiting trade representatives.

Bitcoin – a certain kind of hedge?

Short-term high correlation with the Nasdaq should not be over-interpreted

Extraordinary forecast adjustments

The U.S. president's policies are forcing us to revise our growth and market forecasts downwards. Regardless of how U.S. tariff policy develops, enough confidence has already been destroyed to make consumers, investors and companies more cautious. We expect markets to remain volatile in the short term but in our core scenario anticipate declining uncertainty and positive equity returns for the 12 months to come.

Frank Kelly’s Geopolitical Week Ahead | April 20, 2025

By: Francis (Frank) J. Kelly

The IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings take center stage, Vice President Vance visits India, bilateral trade negotiations continue in Washington, and the G7 and G20 meet on the sidelines of the IMF/World Bank meetings.

Europe’s time to shine

The Trump administration's frontal assault on global trade will not spare Europe. But the main victim could be the U.S. stock market, not least because of the high valuation gap between the U.S. and Europe. Together with the reform of the German debt brake, this makes Europe's equities relatively interesting.

Americas CIO View

New world order for trade: What Next?

Frank Kelly’s Geopolitical Week Ahead | April 13, 2025

By: Francis (Frank) J. Kelly

Trump’s tariffs continue to dominate markets and geopolitics, Chinese President Xi embarks on Asia tour, the ECB decides on interest rates, and Fed Chair Powell speaks on the economic outlook

Pessimistic stock market sentiment

Market sentiment tumbles into “panic territory” after reciprocal tariffs announcement on “Liberation Day.”

By: Maria Milina, Michael Lewis

From the margins to the mainstream.

Frank Kelly’s Geopolitical Week Ahead | April 6, 2025

By: Francis (Frank) J. Kelly

Trump’s tariffs go into effect as China and EU move to retaliate, Netanyahu meets with Trump on Iran and tariffs, and markets look to Fed minutes for guidance.

When businesses stop investing

So far, Trump’s tariff threats are mainly harming sentiment. That could change quite quickly, in ways that would be hard to undo or mitigate.