Americas CIO View

Revisiting R^: How does the fiscal deficit affect the neutral Fed Funds rate?

Frank Kelly Special | July 7, 2025

By: Francis (Frank) J. Kelly

One Big Reconciliation Bill done. Two more to go?

Will there be a U.S. debt crisis?

A look at the risks that the U.S. debt trajectory could become dynamically unstable

Frank Kelly’s Geopolitical Week Ahead | June 29, 2025

By: Francis (Frank) J. Kelly

This coming Sunday, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) hosts the 17th BRICS Leaders’ Summit in Rio de Janeiro.  

No massive sell-off of U.S. securities

Foreign investors reduced their holdings of U.S. assets in April, but only to a very small extent

Frank Kelly’s Geopolitical Week Ahead | June 22, 2025

By: Francis (Frank) J. Kelly

The U.S. attacked Iran – Now what? The NATO Summit Convenes followed by the European Council, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization defense ministers meet, and Fed Chair Powell's Congressional testimony on the economy

Critical minerals at the center of geopolitical tensions

Competition for raw materials vital for the energy transition is intensifying

Frank Kelly Special: Senate's tax draft sets up a fight | June 16, 2025

By: Francis (Frank) J. Kelly

The Senate Finance Committee released their tax draft and it challenges the House on Section 899, SALT, and Medicaid.

Frank Kelly’s Geopolitical Week Ahead | June 15, 2025

By: Francis (Frank) J. Kelly

The Israeli-Iran War expands; Canada hosts the G7+; the UN holds a high-level two-state solution conference; and the Fed, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan meet on interest rates.

Japanese bond yields have risen sharply

We believe that fears of JGB weakness spreading to other government bonds appear to be exaggerated.

Frank Kelly’s Geopolitical Week Ahead | June 8, 2025

By: Francis (Frank) J. Kelly

The G7 Leaders’ Summit convenes -- President Trump’s first trip to Canada since being re-elected and since he placed tough tariffs on the country.

Still constructive

Cautiously optimistic: Our forecasts for the next 12 months

Americas CIO View

Foreign investors rethink US assets, but the S&P 500 is global and digital

Frank Kelly’s Geopolitical Week Ahead | June 1, 2025

By: Francis (Frank) J. Kelly

Major elections dominate the week ahead, the U.S. pushes Asian allies to ramp up defense spending to 5% of GDP, the U.S. Senate takes up the Reconciliation Bill, and the ECB decides rates.

Frank Kelly: Special Washington Update | May 30, 2025

By: Francis (Frank) J. Kelly

Is the Trump Administration getting close to announcing the launch of a sovereign wealth fund?