Productivity’s hidden warning

U.S. productivity is rising, but workers’ pay is not keeping up with inflation. That makes the latest data more difficult to read.

A differentiated look at the IT sector

Our CROCI analysis highlights the importance of valuation assumptions

Americas CIO View

Mother of all profit cycles vs. secular climb in yields

Germany: Better than sentiment suggests

By: Dr Stefan Hoops, Vincenzo Vedda

Recent growth figures, leading indicators and financial market signals suggest that Germany's economy is performing better than prevailing sentiment implies.

After the July FOMC: takeaways from a new Fed

The shift from guidance to judgment.

When AI makes human work more valuable

Technology does not simply destroy work. Early indications are that US labor demand is shifting toward jobs where productivity—and automation—advance more slowly.

Frank Kelly’s Geopolitical Week Ahead | July 26, 2026

By: Francis (Frank) J. Kelly

Markets struggle to understand where the US-Iran war is heading, world leaders gather in Washington for Senator Graham's funeral, Keiko Fujimori becomes Peru's president, and a big week for central banks and earnings.

The Yen: More Than a Rate Story

The real yen is trading close to historic lows. The reason lies less in interest-rate differentials than in three decades of persistent capital outflows.

Frank Kelly’s Geopolitical Week Ahead | July 19, 2026

By: Francis (Frank) J. Kelly

U.S.-Iran tensions escalate, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun meets with President Trump, prediction markets get a hard look in the House, and Trump’s tariffs face expiration, and the European Central Bank and People's Bank of China announce interest rate decisions.

What markets may be missing about Macron

France’s politics may be febrile, but manufacturing costs suggest that Macron will leave the country more competitive than he found it.

Frank Kelly’s Geopolitical Week Ahead | July 12, 2026

By: Francis (Frank) J. Kelly

U.S.-Iran clashes resume, Andy Burnham prepares to become the U.K.’s next prime minister, Ukraine’s allies gather in Paris, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivers his first economic report to Congress.

Semiconductors: good news already priced in

AI is driving earnings and markets. But after the rally, the risk-reward balance is becoming more demanding

Berlin’s undersold big reform package

Berlin’s 34‑point reform program could be a major success because it addresses a multitude of challenges. Patience might pay off for investors.

Frank Kelly’s Geopolitical Week Ahead | July 5, 2026

By: Francis (Frank) J. Kelly

Turkey hosts the NATO summit, Trump calls Putin to spark new Ukraine war peace talks, and Iran buries the Ayatollah.

Inflation risks on the horizon

Past El Niño episodes show agricultural prices can react late and unevenly. Nevertheless, the current risks need to be taken seriously.