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China’s 5-Year Plan: Innovation Overdrive?

11/14/2025

The Communist Party’s latest 5-year blueprint puts technology and productivity in the spotlight.

China’s Communist Party recently held its 15th plenum, focusing on the next Five-Year Plan (2026–2030). News from insiders and related policy meetings suggest one thing: the future is likely to be high-tech. As our Chart of the Week shows, the high-tech sector's share of total final demand as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) has grown steadily and is expected to reach 18.3% in 2026 – nearly double its share a decade ago.^[1]

So, what’s new in this plan? The focus on technological self-reliance appears to be sharper than ever. China aims to insulate itself from foreign pressures in particular on microchips and is ramping up innovation and technological upgrade particularly in the fields of computers, communications, electronics, robotics, and electrical machinery. Policymakers appear confident that boosting total factor productivity (TFP) through high-tech manufacturing may generate profits, tax revenues and jobs, and ultimately lead to higher consumption.

The numbers tell a story: from 2022 to 2024, high-tech manufacturing added 1.1 percentage points to annual GDP growth, offsetting partially the drag from the property sector, which weighed on growth by an average of 1.7 points per year. Bloomberg estimates that high-tech final demand could approach 20% of GDP soon, while the property sector’s share has fallen from a peak of 30 to 35% to below 20%.

China’s technological advances are evident everywhere: industrial robot density has increased 50% over the past five years, the country leads the world in patent applications, and its share of AI patents is ballooning. In 2023, China accounted for nearly 70% of all global AI patent grants.^[2]

Why this relentless push? Firstly, it is to boost long-term growth potential and compensate for demographic headwinds and the absence of the property sector as a growth driver. Secondly, it is to achieve self-reliance in critical technologies, which is vital for both the civil and military sectors.

However, the plan isn’t just about high-tech. Another strategic goal is to increase the service sector’s contribution to the economy, which already accounts for more than half of GDP growth. There seems to be potential to increase service consumption, particularly in areas such as elderly care, education, healthcare, tourism, and hospitality, where demand still exceeds supply.

Boosting domestic demand is also a priority. “The government is working to increase disposable family income and reform the social security system”, says Elke Speidel-Walz, Chief Economist Emerging Markets at DWS. “Those are key steps aiming to reduce China’s high savings rate and encouraging spending.”

In short, China’s new Five-Year Plan is a bold blueprint for a technology-driven, service-rich, and consumption-powered economy. The high-tech sector is not just a growth engine; it’s the linchpin of China’s strategy for navigating global uncertainties and dependencies.

High Tech related final demand: rising importance in GDP

^{Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P., DWS Investment GmbH as of 11/12/25}

This information is subject to change at any time, based upon economic, market and other considerations and should not be construed as a recommendation. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models that may prove to be incorrect. Alternative investments may be speculative and involve significant risks including illiquidity, heightened potential for loss and lack of transparency. Alternatives are not suitable for all clients.

The great net income divergence, revisited

11/7/2025

For over a decade, the S&P 500’s net income growth has outpaced Europe’s Stoxx 600. But signs of change are emerging beneath the surface.

EUR/USD rate is caught in a sideways trend

10/31/2025

The euro may need fresh impetus from Europe to gain further momentum

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