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Tequila sunrise

11/21/2025

Night view of La Diana and Reforma, in Mexico city

Tequila sunrise

Back in March 1993, Mexico had a problem. And it was not – or at least not yet – the one that most people now associate with the Tequila crisis of 1994. Simply put international portfolio investors were far more eager to invest in the country than nascent signs of progress in the real economy warranted.^[1]

Fast forward to today, and it looks like one of those occasions when history, while not repeating, rhymes rather neatly. Back in December 1994, investors suddenly lost patience. In the months leading up to the U.S. presidential elections of 2024, some investors feared that the outcome could trigger similar dynamics. But after it materialized, the peso strengthened, and Mexican local currency bonds became some of the world’s best-performing fixed income assets year-to-date.^[2]

Banxico, Mexico’s central bank has long since earned its inflation-fighting stripes. When prices rose post-pandemic, it acted fast. As our Chart of the Week shows, this trend has enabled Banxico to start easing monetary policy early. In our view, Mexico’s resilience is no accident but largely a result of the bitter lessons during the crises of the 1980s and 1990s. Mexico has shifted away from dollar debt and now finances itself increasingly in local currency. Its floating exchange rate, paired with a fiercely independent central bank, may act as a buffer whenever investors get nervous. As a result, its economy may be less vulnerable to external shocks.

To be sure, some risks linger. Inflation is proving sticky, fiscal consolidation remains a work in progress, and that’s only one of several unfinished domestic reforms. Financial contagion and the USMCA review in 2026 could also result in bouts of volatility. Mexico’s deep integration with North American trade has turned into a mixed blessing, depending on evolving U.S. policy dynamics.

However, that logic cuts both ways, at least as far as foreign exchange rates and markets more broadly are concerned. “The peso’s resilience this year wasn’t a fluke, in my opinion—it reflects decades of reforms and a shift to local currency financing that seems to have changed the game for emerging markets investors,” argues Xueming Song, currency strategist at DWS. “But it has also been flattered by lingering doubts about the U.S. dollar, as well as looming threats to central bank independence of the U.S. Federal Reserve.”

Stable inflation has allowed Banxico to start easing monetary policy early

^{Sources: Haver Analytics, DWS Investment GmbH as of November 2025}

This information is subject to change at any time, based upon economic, market and other considerations and should not be construed as a recommendation. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models that may prove to be incorrect. Alternative investments may be speculative and involve significant risks including illiquidity, heightened potential for loss and lack of transparency. Alternatives are not suitable for all clients.

China’s 5-Year Plan: Innovation Overdrive?

11/14/2025

The Communist Party’s latest 5-year blueprint puts technology and productivity in the spotlight.

The great net income divergence, revisited

11/7/2025

For over a decade, the S&P 500’s net income growth has outpaced Europe’s Stoxx 600. But signs of change are emerging beneath the surface.

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