07-Jul-23 Macro

European retail is finally getting over Covid

Europe's retail sector was shaken up by Covid but we see good grounds to believe it is stabilizing, helping European economies in 2H23 along with a growing service sector.

Different speeds in European retail trade, real, annual growth rate

Sources: Haver Analytics Inc, DWS Investment GmbH as of 7/4/23


The chart also shows how much purchasing dynamics differ within Europe, whether because of divergences in the severity of the Covid slumps diverged or in the government relief measures in the years that followed. Different economic structures might also have been a factor. Spain, certainly, combines both: it suffered disproportionately from the direct and indirect consequences of Covid because of the role of tourism in its economy but is now also benefiting from Europeans' resurgent desire to travel. This boost is then reflected not only in the retail sector but also in other consumer segments, especially services, where we continue to expect a stronger recovery than in retail. In Europe as a whole private consumption should bring growth to Europe again in coming quarters.


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