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Leading indicators of Europe’s direction

Chart of the week
ESG
Europe

2/7/2025

Progress on the energy transition and political commitments give cause for cautious optimism on Europe’s transformation.

dws-austria-center-vienna
Leading indicators of Europe’s direction

Some commentators believe that Europe is in a downward spiral, particularly with the significant and uncertain risks of tariffs from the new U.S. Administration under Donald Trump. However, examining the energy transition and aspects of the EU’s political direction, gives cause for some cautious optimism that Europe is starting to act decisively to transform itself.

Two years ago, DWS published a major report on the challenges that Europe faces. Europe’s debt levels, demographics, strategic dependencies, and risks from climate disasters such as flooding, are amongst the key macro challenges. At a micro level, we concluded that companies were yet to recognize the structural challenges which lie ahead.

Europeans, the economy and politics were also strongly impacted by spiking energy prices and inflation after Russia invaded Ukraine. However, Europe quickly took numerous actions[1]

 

Investment Traffic Lights

The monthly Investment Traffic Lights provide a detailed market analysis and our view on developments in the main asset classes. 

Traffic Light in between two buildings

Solar and wind energy have already reduced Europe's fossil fuel import costs by a cumulative EUR 59 bn. (2019-2024)

 

* Assuming 50% efficiency for gas plant and 40% efficiency for coal. Uses Title Transfer Facility (TTF)  gas price where a country exchange is not available, and API2 for coal.

Sources: Ember (January 2025) European Electricity Review. Ember hourly generation data, Solar Power Europe, Wind Europe, Montel, DWS Investment GmbH; As of 01/23/2025

Our Chart of the Week shows one of the headline results of the many actions taken: for the EU as a whole, a reduction, so far, in the total cumulative cost for fuel imports due to expanded wind and solar generation. Without the wind and solar power installed in 2023, the EU’s fossil gas and coal use would have been 11% higher.

Progress on the energy transition is an important leading indicator for Europe’s prospects, particularly when combined with the growing political willingness to act on its challenges. Before the EU elections, former Italian Prime Ministers Mario Draghi and Enrico Letta were tasked to write separate reports on European competitiveness[2]

These priorities strongly align with DWS’s recommendations in our report on Europe’s investment appeal.[3]