Market backdrop: Good, with “ifs” and “buts”

Benign, for now: Our forecasts for the next 12 months

Japanese bond yields have risen sharply

We believe that fears of JGB weakness spreading to other government bonds appear to be exaggerated.

Inflation expectations management

Not so long ago, Eurozone inflation was almost too dull to mention. Nowadays, the opposite risk looms: rising factory-price expectations deserve attention – but not panic.

How oil shocks can breed demand destruction

When it comes to oil, the price spikes grab attention. Their more lasting effect may be demand that disappears - and does not fully return.

High-yield bonds under a new rates regime

How risk, valuation and liquidity are evolving in credit markets

High rates, high stakes

Brazil’s central bank looks set to remain hawkish. Structural reforms following next year’s elections could help unlock the country’s potential.

Gold-oil ratio at a five-year high

Does the historically high gold-oil ratio once again indicate a major macro shift?

Gold in the stress test

How the precious metal behaves relative to the S&P 500 across different market phases

Germany's gas storage lags seasonal average

69% capacity trails decade average as post-Russian supply model prioritizes flexibility over early stockpiling

German equities reversed amid geopolitical tensions

By: Hansjoerg Pack

After a resilient start to 2026, rising tensions in the Middle East drove elevated volatility across global markets, impacting equities, energy, and rates through the quarter.

German construction industry is divided

Although Germany’s residential construction is weak, other construction sectors, such as civil engineering and specialised construction remain robust

From zero to hero?

It is still early days when it comes to judging the likelihood of success in Europe’s drive towards strategic autonomy. But there are potential promising trends, especially on energy infrastructure.

Frank Kelly’s Week Ahead | April 5, 2026

By: Francis (Frank) J. Kelly

From potential changes to quarterly reporting and rising scrutiny of prediction markets, to central bank activity and escalating geopolitical risks, we outline what’s on the regulatory and geopolitical agenda—and what markets are watching this week.

Frank Kelly’s Special Update | March 16, 2026

By: Francis (Frank) J. Kelly

The Justice Department’s decision to appeal the court’s harsh ruling quashing subpoenas as part of their investigation of Chair Jay Powell is likely to present two outcomes markets have not focused on yet.

Frank Kelly’s Geopolitical Week Ahead | June 7, 2026

By: Francis (Frank) J. Kelly

Iran and Israel re-escalate fighting while U.S.-Iran talks hit a wall, Xi Goes to North Korea, Peru presidential election too-close-to-call as Columbia readies for run-off vote, and central banks begin new struggle with rates