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2026 may be a good year for risky assets
By: Sebastian Kahlfeld
The investment environment across emerging markets remains dominated by a limited number of global themes, most notably artificial intelligence infrastructure investment and defense spending.
U.S. productivity is rising, but workers’ pay is not keeping up with inflation. That makes the latest data more difficult to read.
Decades of efficiency and electrification have defanged a once-feared macro risk — even as Middle East tensions keep markets jumpy.
The Fed raises rates by 25 basis points to reinforce its inflation-fighting credibility
Rising energy prices weigh on growth and inflation, while AI-driven investment continues to support selected segments and drive increasing divergence across markets.
The monthly Investment Traffic Lights provide a detailed market analysis and our view on developments in the main asset classes.
Past El Niño episodes show agricultural prices can react late and unevenly. Nevertheless, the current risks need to be taken seriously.
Not so long ago, Eurozone inflation was almost too dull to mention. Nowadays, the opposite risk looms: rising factory-price expectations deserve attention – but not panic.
When it comes to oil, the price spikes grab attention. Their more lasting effect may be demand that disappears - and does not fully return.
Rising food prices hit emerging-market consumers hard, but shared commodity shocks could have unforeseen implications for inflation around the globe.
How risk, valuation and liquidity are evolving in credit markets
Brazil’s central bank looks set to remain hawkish. Structural reforms following next year’s elections could help unlock the country’s potential.
How the precious metal behaves relative to the S&P 500 across different market phases
