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Macro
Resilient labor markets
GDP growth (in %, year-on-year) |
2023F |
2024F |
|
| United States | 2.0 | | 0.4 |
| Eurozone | 0.8 | | 0.9 |
| United Kingdom | 0.3 | | 0.7 |
| Japan | 2.1 | | 1.1 |
| China | 4.8 | 4.5 | |
| World | 2.9 | | 2.7 |
Fiscal deficit (in % of GDP) |
2023F |
2024F |
|
| United States | 5.6 | | 5.6 |
| Eurozone | 3.2 | | 2.7 |
| United Kingdom | 5.8 | | 5.3 |
| Japan | 6.0 | | 4.5 |
| China | 6.9 | | 6.4 |
Consumer price inflation (in %, year-on-year) |
2023F |
2024F |
|
| United States[1] | 4.1 | | 2.6 |
| Eurozone | 5.7 | | 2.5 |
| United Kingdom | 7.4 | | 2.6 |
| Japan | 2.9 | | 1.9 |
| China | 0.5 | 2.0 |
Unemployment Rate (annual average) |
2023F |
2024F |
|
| United States | 3.7 | 4.3 | |
| Eurozone | 6.7 | | 6.7 |
| United Kingdom | 4.0 | 4.5 | |
| Japan | 2.5 | | 2.4 |
| China | 5.3 | | 5.1 |
Benchmark rates (in %) |
Current[2] |
Sep 24F |
|
| United States | 5.25-5.50 | | 4.75-5.0 |
| Eurozone | 3.75 | | 3.50 |
| United Kingdom | 5.25 | | 5.00 |
| Japan | -0.10 | 0.10 | |
| China | 3.45 | | 3.15 |
Commodities (in dollars) |
Current[3] |
Sep 24F |
|
| Crude oil (Brent) | 89.9 | 88 | |
| Gold | 1,920 | 2,150 | |
| Copper (LME) | 8,321 | 8,800 |
Equities
Some growth, some value
Current[4] |
Sep 2024F |
Total Return (exp.)[5] |
Expected earnings growth |
P/E impact |
Dividend yield |
||
|
United States |
4,451 | | 4,500 | 2.7% | 5% | -4% | 1.6% |
|
Europe |
454 | | 470 | 7.2% | 3% | 0% | 3.6% |
|
Eurozone |
4,221 | | 4,350 | 6.8% | 3% | 0% | 3.8% |
|
Germany |
15,719 | | 16,700 | 6.4% | 4% | -1% | 3.7% |
|
United Kingdom |
7,442 | | 7,400 | 3.7% | 1% | -2% | 4.3% |
|
Switzerland |
10,993 | | 11,300 | 6.3% | 9% | -6% | 3.3% |
|
Japan |
1,456 | | 1,500 | 5.3% | 5% | -2% | 2.3% |
| 974 | | 1,010 | 6.6% | 3% | 0% | 2.8% | |
| 620 | | 655 | 8.2% | 6% | 0% | 2.5% |
F refers to DWS Investment GmbH forecasts as of 09/07/23
Fixed Income
Yields – data dependent
Current[2] |
Sep 2024F |
||
United States |
|||
| U.S. Treasuries (10-year) | 4.24% | 4.20% | |
| U.S. high-yield municipal bonds[7] | 231 bp | 225 bp | |
| U.S. investment-grade corporates[7] | 111 bp | 95 bp | |
| U.S. high-yield corporates[7] | 376 bp | 450 bp | |
| Securitized: mortgage-backed securities[8] | 54 bp | 120 bp | |
Europe |
|||
| German Bunds (10-year) | 2.61% | 2.70% | |
| UK Gilts (10-year) | 4.45% | 4.10% | |
| Euro investment-grade corporates[9] | 168 bp | 110 bp | |
| Euro high-yield corporates[9] | 494 bp | 450 bp | |
| Securitized: covered bonds[9] | 92 bp | 70 bp | |
| Italy (10-year)[9] | 173 bp | 200 bp | |
Asia-Pacific |
|||
| Japanese government bonds (10-year) | 0.66% | 0.75% | |
| Asia credit | 297 bp | 280 bp | |
Global |
|||
| Emerging-market sovereigns | 425 bp | 440 bp | |
| Emerging-market credit | 347 bp | 325 bp |
Legend:
- Macro data exchange rates and alternative investments: The arrows signal whether we expect to see an upward trend , a sideways trend or a downward trend .
- The signals' colors illustrate the return opportunities for long-only investors: positive return potential for long-only investors. limited return opportunity as well as downside risk. negative return potential for long-only investors.
