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11/27/2025
Despite political turbulence, 2025 performed better than expected. Our outlook for 2026 is even brighter. Profit growth and interest rate cuts should provide a solid foundation.
The year 2025 was marked not only by political surprises from Washington but also by the ever-faster spinning artificial intelligence (AI) carousel. It is likely to keep turning in 2026. Whether it will spin out of control may be one of investors’ main concerns. We should certainly see a wider spread among AI companies—winners and losers. From a macroeconomic perspective, we remain positive on the theme, while in equity markets we currently see valuations as fair overall.
Vincenzo Vedda, Chief Investment Officer
Before looking ahead, let’s briefly look back. Many expected 2025 to be volatile, not least because of the U.S. government transition. Market reaction to the new administration’s disruption potential culminated in early April on “Liberation Day,” which turned out to be the starting point for a new rally. Once again, crises proved to offer opportunities for many investors. The global economy stabilized, supported by steady consumer spending and technological innovation—especially AI. Inflation concerns eased, central banks acted prudently, and geopolitical tensions and tariffs slowed momentum less than feared.
Buoyed by this optimism, we enter 2026 under the motto “Rational Exuberance”[1]
Our optimism for equities remains, especially in the U.S.: The S&P 500 could reach around 7,500 points by end-2026, driven by earnings growth and AI investments. Financials could benefit from moderate yields and deregulation. However, the AI boom offers surprises both up and down, so we do not favor the tech-heavy U.S. over other regions. Europe also offers earnings growth, and Germany stands out with infrastructure and defense investments. Japan benefits from reforms, and the rest of Asia from strong chip demand, a weak U.S. dollar, and growing intra-regional trade. AI will continue to dominate headlines and, in our view, remains a key risk if expectations are not met.
For bonds, the motto is “carry-on”—capturing high running yields. Modest growth, falling inflation, and supportive central banks could create an almost ideal backdrop for bonds, if not for rising government debt, already visible in 30-year maturities. In the U.S., the end of quantitative tightening and planned buybacks reduce supply and support intermediate maturities. We expect 10-year yields between 3.75% and 4.25%. In Europe, Bund yields should remain stable over the next 12 months, with potential curve steepening at ultra-long maturities due to financing needs and pension reform in the Netherlands. Given unattractive foreign exchange hedging costs, euro investors are likely to stay “at home.” For corporate bonds, we remain neutral on investment grade, as record-low spreads are unlikely to tighten further. We are more cautious on high yield, as tight spreads no longer reflect sector-specific risks. We see the dollar as fairly valued at EUR/USD 1.15.
Bottom line: We expect a good investment year, especially for equities. Modest economic growth, stronger earnings growth, and non-restrictive monetary policy should create a favorable environment for many equities and corporate bonds. We continue to view AI as a market driver, but the sector will likely be assessed more selectively, and high valuations of many AI leaders carry disappointment risk. For this reason, we remain broadly diversified and see gold as a relative hedge.
Market Outlook US Q4 2025
Miscellaneous