Jobs, the economy, and real estate

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Jobs, the economy, and real estate

7/17/2026

Kevin White, CFA

Global Co-Head of Real Estate Research

Shifting economic trends carry important implications for real estate performance across sectors, in our view. While GDP growth has been stalwart (2.7% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2026), only half a million new jobs were added over the past year, a third of the 10-year average (see Exhibit).^[1] We believe that this divergence is symptomatic of two countervailing trends: Tighter immigration and an ageing population are constraining labor-force growth, while AI is supporting productivity, investment, and spending.

^{* Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics. As of June 2026.}

This dichotomy is largely inconsequential for Retail and Industrial; for these sectors, it matters only that more goods (GDP) circulate through stores and warehouses, in our view. The residential sector is also insulated, we believe, as demographic factors, including an ageing Millennial population, churn out more households. However, in our view, employment is integral to long-term office demand, notwithstanding near-term support from a return to workplaces. In a job-light economic expansion, we believe that an office recovery could be protracted.

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This information is subject to change at any time, based upon economic, market and other considerations and should not be construed as a recommendation. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models that may prove to be incorrect.

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108446_1.7 (07/2027)

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