Frank Kelly’s Congressional Week Ahead | August 31, 2026

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Frank Kelly’s Congressional Week Ahead | August 31, 2026

8/31/2026

Time’s Up – The Congressional calendar is almost done, but markets should watch for possible debt ceiling increase.

Francis (Frank) J. Kelly

Founder & Managing Partner, Fulcrum Macro Advisors and Senior Political Strategist for DWS

The Calendar
The To-Do List
Major Pieces of Legislation
What About the Lame Duck Session?

As the House returns to work for four days this week (the Senate does not return until September 14th), we took a quick look at the overall congressional agenda and what to expect before the midterm elections — the short answer is, "not much."

The Quickly Shrinking Calendar:
As of today, there are 63 days until the November 3rd midterm elections.

House: The House of Representatives is back to work today until Thursday and then out for the Labor Day week. They are scheduled to return September 14th to wrap up work by October 1st. But we are hearing that, as of this morning, House Republican leadership may cancel the rest of September to give Republican members more time to campaign at home.
Senate: As noted, the Senate will not be back in session until September 14th and is aiming to also wrap up work by October 1st. But we are hearing there is a good chance that Republican Leadership may cancel part of or the entire rest of their September calendar (September 14 – 30th) to give members more time at home to campaign. They are scheduled to be in session one (1) day in October (October 1st).

The To-Do List:

The House is hoping to pass a Continuing Resolution (CR) this week, which was passed by the Senate in August to hopefully keep the government open until December 11th. We think there is slightly more than a 50% chance they can get this done this week; a small group of rebellious House Republicans is looking for concessions on future budget cuts. If they fail, they will have to come back later in September instead of canceling scheduled legislative days, as referenced above.
For markets, perhaps the biggest issue to be focused on is whether Congress can pass a 3rd Reconciliation bill before the election. The House pushed it through in late July by a 2-vote majority but now faces a highly skeptical Senate.
The House-passed package includes $73 billion in additional defense and intelligence programs, $12 billion in additional agricultural aid for struggling farmers, and $10 billion in election integrity grants – a scaled-back version of President Trump's Save America Act, which would give grants to states to incentivize them to enact stricter voter ID and registration rules.
But now, Congressional Republican leaders are being urged by President Trump to include in the Reconciliation a debt ceiling increase of at least another $4.1 trillion. Trump wants to get it done before the midterms and hopes it will be the last debt ceiling increase he has to make during his presidency. Note that Congress increased the debt ceiling at Trump's request by $5 trillion last year.
Our view is that there is less than a 50% chance this gets done before the election, as there are no offsets included which is drawing fire from House and Senate fiscal conservatives and deficit hawks.
- Beyond this, we think the House agenda for the rest of the year might include trying to take up a Russian sanctions bill that had been championed by the late Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC).

Major Pieces of Legislation
We would also note we see several major pieces of legislation are now either dangling on the edge of failure or effectively already consigned to the failure bin for 2026. Among them are:

The SAVE America Act: President Trump desperately wanted to see Congress pass this bill, which would require tough new voter ID requirements. But it is dead now, and we do not expect it to be revived in the next two years. We have two observations about the bill's failure and its implications. First, Senate Republicans blocked the bill, signaling a growing portion of the GOP’s willingness to defy Trump and the first real move to distance itself from the President and his low approval numbers — not just in advance of the midterms but also the looming 2028 elections. Second, the bill’s failure in the face of Trump’s insistence is now giving Democrats significant concern that Trump will do something extraordinary in the midterms – e.g., declaring a national emergency due to voter fraud because of “foreign interference” as he spoke of earlier this month, etc.). We give this a 0% chance of passage this year.
The Farm Bill: This is a 5-year bill that covers both critical agricultural and food policy matters and is a "must-do " for American farmers. However, it expired in 2023 and has been getting extensions ever since. Once again, it will be pushed into the new year for a new Congress to try to finalize. This one has significant midterm election impact, as US farmers have suffered as global agricultural markets have become tougher, mostly caused by President Trump's trade wars and the Iran War (for example: diesel prices are surging to near-record highs as harvest season approaches). We would also point to the unusually tight polls in the Iowa governor's race, Nebraska Senate race, and key Senate and House races in Ohio and Texas.
New Russia Sanctions Legislation: As noted above, there is still a chance this bill, championed by the late Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC), gets passed this year. It has already passed the Senate by an overwhelming majority (86-11). Still, looking at the House calendar and hearing concerns from some House Democrats about giving President Trump any further authority to levy up to 100% tariffs on major Russian oil importers (which the bill would allow), it is on the edge of being kicked into next year.
The CLARITY Act: A key piece of legislation needed to fully develop the crypto trading architecture and desperately wanted by the overall crypto industry (with significant opposition from the banking industry). It has passed the House but is now stuck in the Senate with Senate Democrats demanding stricter government ethics provisions (their concerns go directly to President Trump and his family's growing crypto business). Democrats are not budging, and neither is the President. We think this has less than a 25% chance of getting done in 2026.
The Surface Transportation Bill: Like the farm bill, it comes up for reauthorization every five years and expires September 30th. Formally known as the BUILD America 250 Act, the bill passed in the House Transportation Committee in May and has languished ever since. The bill authorizes $580 billion over five years with $475 billion provided for Highway Trust Fund contract authority. We think this has a 0% percent chance of passage this and is punted into 2027.

What About the Lame Duck Session?
Don't expect much, if anything, to get done here. The House has set a placeholder of December 1st to 17th for a Lame Duck session (the new Congress is sworn in on January 3rd). The Senate has not yet established a schedule. Based on our experience, retired or defeated members are eager to figure out their next step in life, making it hard to get them to return to Washington at all.

Depending on how the elections go and how much focus President Trump continues to put on obtaining a debt ceiling increase, if he does not get it in a 3rd Reconciliation bill, we could see the President demanding Congressional Republican leaders get that one issue voted on. Otherwise, expect little legislative action from Congress after the elections.

Additional resources

Francis (Frank) J. Kelly

Frank is the Founder and Managing Partner of Fulcrum Macro Advisors, a political risk advisory firm based in Washington, DC. He is the senior political strategist for DWS.

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