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Frank Kelly’s Geopolitical Week Ahead | February 9, 2025

2/9/2025

The AI Action Summit convenes in Paris, Trump meets with Indian Prime Minister Modi as Secretary of State Rubio meets with EU foreign ministers, and Powell goes to Capitol Hill.

Francis (Frank) J. Kelly

Founder & Managing Partner, Fulcrum Macro Advisors LLC and Senior Political Strategist for DWS

AI Action Summit convenes in Paris
Secretary of State Rubio meets with EU foreign ministers
Trump to meet with Indian Prime Minister Modi
Powell goes to Capitol Hill

AI Action Summit convenes in Paris

Europe serves as the host of two important geopolitical events this week. First, the growing opportunity and risk of Artificial Intelligence (AI) dominate the attention of world leaders and prominent business CEOs this week as the AI Action Summit kicks off in Paris. Co-hosted by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and French President Emmanuel Macron, the event will include attendees from 80 countries, including U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance, Google CEO Sundar Pichai, and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman. There are expected to be more than 100 side events, and in total, more than 10,000 people will attend. The event is expected to focus on both the risks and opportunities AI offers.

Secretary of State Rubio to meet with EU foreign ministers

Second, European foreign ministers will gather and meet with newly sworn-in U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Wednesday for the first time. Rubio will also meet with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha to discuss the situation in Ukraine and likely President Trump’s plans to seek a peace treaty with Russia. Rubio will then travel on to the Munich Security Conference in Germany following by visits to Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to discuss the situation in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, and Iran.

Trump to meet with Indian Prime Minister Modi

While all this is going on, in the U.S., President Trump will meet with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Washington to discuss trade issues and how to further expand the mutual defense and security relationship between India and the U.S. including the opportunity for India to increase purchases of leading U.S. military technology. The relationship between Trump and Modi was strong during his first term and has remained so ever since. What markets are likely to be focused on most of all is any discussion between the two leaders over attracting manufacturing in China to India and the U.S.

Global economic radar screen

Looking at the global economic radar screen this coming week, markets will be focused on

Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell’s semiannual economic reports to Congress. Powell starts Tuesday when he testifies before the Senate Banking Committee and then on Wednesday before the House Financial Services Committee.
Powell’s testimony comes as U.S. consumer price index (CPI), retail sales, and industrial production reports are released this week.
Turning to Asia, China’s CPI and producer price index (PPI) are out this week, and Japan’s Economy Watchers Survey and PPI are released this week.
In Europe, the UK’s 4th quarter gross domestic product (GDP) is out as European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde meets with the European Parliament to discuss the economy and ECB policy.

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Francis (Frank) J. Kelly

Frank is the Founder and Managing Partner of Fulcrum Macro Advisors LLC, a political risk advisory firm based in Washington, DC. He is the senior political strategist for DWS.

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Frank Kelly’s Geopolitical Week Ahead | February 9, 2025

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