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Frank Kelly’s Geopolitical Week Ahead | March 9, 2025

3/9/2025

U.S.-Russia talks over Ukraine begin in Saudi Arabia, G7 Finance Ministers Meeting in Canada, Germany debates and votes on a €500 billion infrastructure fund, and the U.S. Congress races to head a government shutdown.

Francis (Frank) J. Kelly

Founder & Managing Partner, Fulcrum Macro Advisors LLC and Senior Political Strategist for DWS

U.S.-Russia talks over Ukraine begin in Saudi Arabia
G7 Finance Ministers Meeting in Canada
Germany debates and votes on a €500 billion infrastructure fund
U.S. Congress races to head a government shutdown
Global economic radar screen
U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

U.S.-Russia talks over Ukraine begin in Saudi Arabia

It will to be another momentous week for Ukraine this week as U.S. and Russian diplomats meet in Saudi Arabia to begin negotiations over a possible cease-fire. The Ukrainians will not be at the table, but Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will travel to Riyadh to meet with Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salem to discuss his concerns. At the time of this writing – reports that Zelensky may return to Washington along with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanual Macron for meetings with President Trump (however, Macron’s office has denied the report).

G7 Finance Ministers Meeting in Canada

Meanwhile, G7 Finance Ministers are scheduled to gather in Charlevoix, Canada, for two days. The Ukraine situation will be top of the agenda but they are also expected to discuss a broader range of issues including the situation in the Middle East and delve into “significant issues in the Americas, including the ongoing crises in Haiti and Venezuela, as well as peace and security challenges in Africa, particularly in Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo."^[1]

Germany debates and votes on a €500 billion infrastructure fund

Markets this week are closely watching as the German Bundestag (Parliament) begins debating and possibly voting on a €500 billion infrastructure package as well as amending the Constitution to amend the debt brake the country has had in place to avoid deficit borrowing.^[2] This is a historic vote for Germany, being described as a fiscal sea change for the country. It comes in large part as a result of President Trump’s moves to end military aid to Ukraine and his urging Europe to strengthen its own defenses.

U.S. Congress races to head a government shutdown

Also, this week, the U.S. Congress is racing to pass a stop-gap Continuing Resolution (CR) to keep the federal government operating. The current CR expires on March 14 and the proposed new one will keep funding flowing until September, giving House and Senate Republicans time to hammer out President Trump’s massive tax and budget Reconciliation bill. Republican leaders are still at odds over key aspects of that bill, with a large faction of House Republicans demanding $2 trillion in budget cuts in order to fund the President’s tax proposals. Much of that $2 trillion is dependent on Elon Musk’s DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency) efforts to find a promised $2 trillion in government cuts as well as highly controversial cuts to the Medicaid program.

All this comes as President Trump’s 25 % tariffs on steel and aluminum go into effect on Wednesday, mostly aimed at European Union (EU) exports. And China’s new tariffs on U.S. imports – ranging from 10% to 15% mostly agricultural imports – go into effect on Monday.

Global economic radar screen

Looking at the global economic radar screen for the coming week there will be a steady flow of important economic news.

S. inflation numbers are being released Wednesday along with the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment reports on Friday.
In Canada, the Bank of Canada meets on Wednesday to decide interest rates.
Turning to Asia, China’s inflation prints are out on Sunday.
Japan’s Economy Watchers survey is out this week, too. Importantly, the Japanese Trade Union Confederation’s initial wage hike agreement votes will be announced.
In Europe, UK gross domestic product (GDP) figures are out this week
Germany releases trade figures and industrial production numbers on Monday.

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

Bessent’s regulatory pillar, Senate Banking wants to re-write bank reputational risk guidance, the FDIC revamps merger guidelines, and Trump says he will name a new Fed Vice Chair for Supervision

Major changes to the financial regulatory world continue apace in Washington, and two events this past week stood out.

First, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent gave his first major speech laying out his “Three Pillars of the American First Economic Agenda.” Speaking at the New York Economic Club, Bessent said the first pillar would be overhauling financial oversight, making the case that “regulatory overreach of the past few years in pursuit of political agendas has missed material risk, stymied growth, and squashed innovation.
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) was the second significant change as the FDIC’s board of directors voted to roll back the Biden Administration’s proposed bank merger guidelines. It was the first major financial deregulatory move of the Trump Administration. The FDIC also withdrew from pending regulations on brokered deposits, corporate governance, and asset manager’s ownership stakes in banks.^[3]

In Congress, Republicans on the Senate Banking Committee (all 13 of them) signed on to legislation offered by Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott (R-SC) aimed at forcing federal banking regulators from using reputational risk as a component of supervision. The point of the legislation, called the Financial Integrity and Regulation Management Act (FIRM Act), is to combat debanking. The legislation was hailed by state bank regulators and the crypto industry who have accused the FDIC and other bank regulators from discouraging banks from offering crypto services.

Crypto had a big week last week with President Trump signing an Executive Order creating a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. The President followed this up with a first-of-its-kind White House Crypto Summit, bringing together crypto industry leaders. This came as the House Financial Services Committee (HFSC) voted to overturn a Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) rule subjecting nonbanks with digital payment platforms to greater scrutiny.

The HFSC also voted to overturn CFPB rules restricting overdraft fees, something banks have strongly lobbied in favor of.

Both overturned CFPB rules are likely to be passed by the full House but passage in the Senate is far from assured.

While all this was going on, Senate Banking Committee Chair Scott and House Financial Services Committee Chair French Hill (R-AK) sent President Trump a letter urging the President to move quickly in naming a new Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision. Late Sunday, President Trump said he plans to make an announcement naming a new Vice Chair “fairly soon.”

We would also note – as we get many questions from clients – we still do not know when SEC Chair-nominee Paul Atkins and Comptroller of the Currency-nominee Jonathan Gould will have their Senate confirmation hearings. The answer is we do not know as nothing has yet been scheduled although we have heard rumors they may happen in the next two weeks.

Looking at the week ahead, the HFSC is holding a hearing on digital payments and the federal framework for payment stablecoins while the Senate Banking Committee is holding a hearing on affordable housing. There will also be a raft of SEC and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) speeches this week as the futures industry holds its big annual conference in Boca Raton, Florida.

And the Brookings Institution is holding an interesting event looking at how the State of New York regulates the financial sector.

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Francis (Frank) J. Kelly

Frank is the Founder and Managing Partner of Fulcrum Macro Advisors LLC, a political risk advisory firm based in Washington, DC. He is the senior political strategist for DWS.

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Frank Kelly’s Geopolitical Week Ahead | March 9, 2025

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