Frank Kelly’s Geopolitical Week Ahead | April 19, 2026

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Frank Kelly’s Geopolitical Week Ahead | April 19, 2026

4/19/2026

Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz rise as ceasefire set to expire. Plus, EU leaders meet in Cyprus and Fed chair nominee Warsh gets his confirmation hearing.

Francis (Frank) J. Kelly

Founder & Managing Partner, Fulcrum Macro Advisors and Senior Political Strategist for DWS

Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz rise as ceasefire set to expire
EU leaders meet in Cyprus
Fed chair nominee Warsh gets his confirmation hearing

Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz rise as ceasefire set to expire
Markets are gripped by rapidly shifting signals from Washington and Tehran over peace talks, with President Trump projecting a deal within days. However, President Trump ended the week telling reporters on Friday he expected a deal “in a day or two” and that his special envoys, Vice President J.D. Vance, Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner were heading to Islamabad, Pakistan for a second round of talks. But this all abruptly was upended when the U.S. Navy fired on and seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship. This promptly led to Iranian threats to strike back and denials they were going to send a negotiating team to Pakistan. This is an extraordinarily fast-moving situation as the ceasefire is scheduled to end two days from now. The next steps all depend on whether Iran sends a delegation to Islamabad or not.

EU leaders meet in Cyprus
Meanwhile, EU leaders meet in Cyprus this week in what could be a pivotal session amid rising geopolitical crises, especially the Iran situation. The “informal” agenda includes discussing the Iranian situation, the ongoing war in Ukraine (Ukrainian President Zelensky is scheduled to address the group), as well as progress of the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF). The MFF is a nearly €2 trillion budget proposal that aims to, according to the EU, “align resources with shared priorities (from competitiveness and innovation to defense, cohesion and external action) under a modernized, flexible and transparent structure.”

But the Iran crisis will dominate the discussions as energy prices spike in Europe. EU leaders are likely to push emergency energy measures. We would also note this will be the last EU meeting for outgoing Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán who lost power last week after 16 years in power.

Fed chair nominee Warsh gets his confirmation hearing
In Washington, the main event is the Senate confirmation hearing for Federal Reserve chair nominee Kevin Warsh. Despite likely approval, the process could be stalled by the ongoing Justice Department investigation of current Chair Jay Powell and senators planned opposition until it concludes. As we have written in client notes, this could delay Warsh’s confirmation for months, directly impacting upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings in June and July.

Beyond Warsh’s confirmation, global markets are starting to focus on the upcoming FOMC meeting April 28–29, the European Central Bank interest rate meeting on April 29, and the Bank of England interest rate meeting on April 30.

Global economic and financial radar screen
This week’s global flash April PMIs (Purchasing Managers Index) are highly anticipated to gauge the economic impact of the Iran War.

In the U.S., March existing home sales (Monday), April producer price index (PPI) and Consumer Confidence (Tuesday), March retail sales (Tuesday), and the key March personal consumption expenditure (PCE) Index (Friday) are released, Canada reports March consumer price index (CPI) on Monday.

In Europe, markets will focus on Eurozone Consumer Confidence (Wednesday), UK labor data (Tuesday), and March inflation (Wednesday), plus major German and French economic surveys released throughout the week.

In Asia, big events include Japan’s March CPI (Friday), Taiwan’s export orders (Tuesday), and South Korea’s Consumer Sentiment (Thursday).

Additional resources

Francis (Frank) J. Kelly

Frank is the Founder and Managing Partner of Fulcrum Macro Advisors, a political risk advisory firm based in Washington, DC. He is the senior political strategist for DWS.

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