Frank Kelly’s Geopolitical Week Ahead | July 12, 2026

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Frank Kelly’s Geopolitical Week Ahead | July 12, 2026

7/12/2026

U.S.-Iran clashes resume, Burnham to be formally named the UK’s next prime minister, Ukraine’s allies meet in Paris, and Warsh delivers his first economic report to congress

Francis (Frank) J. Kelly

Founder & Managing Partner, Fulcrum Macro Advisors and Senior Political Strategist for DWS

U.S.-Iran clashes resume
Burnham to be formally named the UK’s next prime minister
Ukraine’s allies meet in Paris
Warsh delivers his first economic report to congress

U.S.-Iran clashes resume
Iran will continue to dominate the geopolitical and economic headlines this week following the collapse of the ceasefire. The trigger for the collapse was Iran’s attack on multiple commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, ostensibly because the ships failed to pay tolls to Iran. Since then, the U.S. has carried out multiple waves of attacks on Iranian military targets. However, President Trump said he would agree to further talks with Iran despite the ceasefire’s collapse. But as of this writing, there is no clear path to renewing further talks.

Meanwhile, President Trump is scheduled to meet with Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaida Tuesday at the White House. This is al-Zaida’s first foreign trip since being elected Prime Minister in May and may prove helpful in furthering efforts with Iran. The focus of the meeting will be to secure new investment deals – including new oil deals – and finalize efforts to get Iraq to move to disarm Iran-aligned armed groups operating in Iraq.

In Europe, two important events are taking place.

Burnham to be formally named the U.K.’s next prime minister
First, Andy Burnham will likely become the U.K.’s latest prime minister, replacing Keir Starmer. Burnham has secured close to 80% of the Labour Party’s support and barring a last-minute entry in the race to become Prime Minister (the deadline for entry is this week), Burnham will be set to take over during Parliament’s summer recess.

Ukraine’s allies meet in Paris
The second important event is a meeting of the “Coalition of the Willing on Ukraine” in Paris. Ukrainian President Zelensky, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, and more than 25 heads of state will gather. While the meeting is unlikely to produce any big new financial or military commitments, it will be seen as further building on momentum reaffirmed at the recent G7 summit in Évian, France, and the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey, where allies committed €70 billion in military aid to Kyiv for 2026 (and President Trump granted Ukraine permission to build Patriot missiles – a significant new show of support from the U.S.). Macron has said he’ll use the gathering to unveil new defense initiatives and joint military exercises, with the agenda also covering Russia’s shadow fleet, new military capabilities for Ukraine, and deeper operational cooperation among Kyiv’s backers.

Global financial and economic radar screen
Looking at the global financial and economic radar screen, inflation will be the focus of policymakers and markets this week.

Warsh delivers his first economic report to Congress
The big event for markets will be Federal Reserve Board Chair Kevin Warsh’s testimony before Congress this week, presenting the Fed’s semiannual monetary report. Warsh is sure to be peppered with questions about inflation by nervous members of Congress facing tough elections in November.

In addition, there are unconfirmed reports that European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will be in Washington Monday and Tuesday to meet with Warsh (Monday) and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent (Tuesday). It has been suggested that the meetings will focus on closer policy coordination on inflation as the Iran war drags on.

In the U.S. this week, we will see the June consumer price index (CPI) report on Tuesday, just before Warsh’s testimony to the House Financial Services Committee. Then the June producer price index (PPI) will be released on Wednesday, just before Warsh’s testimony before the Senate Banking Committee. The final inflation report of the week will be the University of Michigan’s preliminary survey on Friday.

Other major reports out this week will be the Fed’s Beige Book on Wednesday, retail sales on Thursday, and industrial production on Friday.

Also, this coming week kicks off earnings season, with five of the largest U.S. investment banks – JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, and Citigroup – all reporting.

In Canada, the Reserve Bank of Canada meets on Wednesday to set interest rates, with markets expecting a hold. Also on Wednesday, we will see MLS home sales figures and trade figures. And on Thursday, new housing starts are reported.

In Asia, the Bank of Korea decides on rates on Thursday. China releases its Q2 gross domestic product (GDP) figures and retail sales on Wednesday. And in Japan, we will see industrial production numbers on Tuesday.

And in Europe, the European Central Bank enters its quiet period ahead of its next rates meeting in two weeks. The Eurozone industrial production numbers are out on Wednesday, and Friday brings the Eurozone’s June CPI.

Additional resources

Francis (Frank) J. Kelly

Frank is the Founder and Managing Partner of Fulcrum Macro Advisors, a political risk advisory firm based in Washington, DC. He is the senior political strategist for DWS.

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