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Frank Kelly’s Geopolitical Week Ahead | July 13, 2025

7/13/2025

President Trump to make “major statement” on Ukraine, Japan holds major elections, German Chancellor Merz travels to London to sign the UK-Germany Strategic Partnership Treaty, and the G20 Finance Ministers meet in South Africa

Francis (Frank) J. Kelly

Founder & Managing Partner, Fulcrum Macro Advisors LLC and Senior Political Strategist for DWS

President Trump to make “major statement” on Ukraine
Tariff threats
Japan holds major elections
German Chancellor Merz travels to London to sign the UK-Germany Strategic Partnership Treaty
Global economic and financial radar screen
G20 Finance Ministers meet in South Africa
Major economic reports
Earnings reports

President Trump to make “major statement” on Ukraine
It will be another hectic week on the geopolitical stage as President Trump has promised to make a “major statement” on Ukraine on Monday. The announcement – which is expected to be a substantial commitment of new military aid to Ukraine – comes as the President meets with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in Washington. If Trump does in fact announce a sizeable commitment of weapons to Kyiv, it will be a major policy shift for the President and suggest a significant new turn in the war not to mention Trump’s growing irritation with Russian President Vladimir Putin for refusing to engage in peace negotiations.

Tariff threats
All this comes as President Trump continues to press forward with aggressive tariff threats, announcing on Friday that he is putting new tariffs on the European Union, Mexico, and Canada. Both Mexico and Canada are going to be hit with new 30 percent tariffs for fentanyl smuggling into the U.S., according to a letter Trump posted on Truth Social, his media platform. The EU will also face new 30 percent tariffs, according to Trump’s letter, for failing to deal in good faith with the US in ongoing trade negotiations.

Japan holds major elections
Also this week, markets will be watching Japan’s Upper House elections to understand the further stability of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishida’s ruling government and what sort of flexibility the Bank of Japan has on raising interest rates. Japan’s opposition parties are advocating for tax cuts and looser monetary policy and if they gain substantially in Sunday’s elections, the central bank will feel significant now pressure not to raise rates.

Trump will host Philippine President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos next Sunday for trade talks while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent travels to Japan to attend the World Expo in Osaka. While no formal bilateral meetings between Bessent and Japanese negotiators have been announced, it is expected that he will sit down with them while there to try and unlock stalled trade talks.

UK-Germany Strategic Partnership Treaty
In Europe this week, German Chancellor Fredrich Merz makes his first visit to London since being elected in May. While there, he will sign a new UK-Germany Strategic Partnership Treaty designed to significantly ramp up mutual defense and economic cooperation, all part of greater Europe’s effort rapidly build up military capabilities in the face of Russia’s ongoing aggression in Ukraine and Russian President Putin’s continuous demands for Eastern European countries to leave NATO.

Global economic and financial radar screen
Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen this week, G20 finance and central bank governors meet in South Africa. No major announcements or outcomes are expected from those meetings at this time.

In terms of major economic reports this week,

The highly anticipated U.S. June consumer price index (CPI) report is out on Tuesday, telling markets if there is any new inflationary movement as result of the Trump tariffs.
The PPI report will be out on Wednesday
The preliminary University of Michigan consumer survey results for July will be released on Friday.
Also out this week are the Fed’s Beige Book on Wednesday along with industrial production numbers.
And the June retail sales come out on Thursday.

Earnings reports. While we normally do not cover earnings, we note that many of the largest U.S. financial institutions will be releasing earnings this week (JP Morgan, Bank of New York Mellon, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, BlackRock, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs). Markets will be looking to see how strongly their earnings are as another indicator of overall U.S. economic strength.

Turning to Asia, China’s Q2 GDP and June retail activity data are out on Tuesday. Japan releases the Bank of Japan’s Opinion Survey on the General Public's Views and Behavior for June due Monday and the June customs trade data out on Thursday CPI figures on Friday.

In Europe this week, the UK will release CPI data on Wednesday and labor market reports on Thursday.

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Francis (Frank) J. Kelly

Frank is the Founder and Managing Partner of Fulcrum Macro Advisors LLC, a political risk advisory firm based in Washington, DC. He is the senior political strategist for DWS.

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Frank Kelly’s Geopolitical Week Ahead | July 13, 2025

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