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7/20/2025
The EU holds high-level summits with Japan and China, Philippine President Marcos meets with President Trump, Taiwan holds recall elections, and the ECB meets on interest rates
U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead
Several key events in Asia will dominate the geopolitical agenda this coming week. And markets will keenly be focused on the outcomes of those events, too.
The EU holds high-level summits with Japan and China
Senior EU leaders, led by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President António Costa will first travel to Japan to participate in the 30th annual EU-Japan Summit. The meeting comes days after the crucial Japanese Upper House parliamentary elections held on Sunday which resulted in Prime Minister Shigeru Ishida’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in the minority in both the upper and lower houses. Ishida is now under considerable pressure to step down. The election results are expected to impact Bank of Japan policy, too. Ishida has supported BoJ decision to raise interest rates. But the opposition parties do not and are calling for significant sales tax cuts and a hold on interest rates.
While the EU-Japan Summit will likely not produce much in terms of major headlines or policy shifts, the next stop for von der Leyen and Costa will be: The EU delegation travels to Beijing for the 25th EU-China Summit. Brussels is hoping to improve trade relations with Beijing which have been rocky but also to help alleviate the trade pressure the Trump tariffs are putting on European markets.
Philippine President Marcos meets with President Trump
This comes as Philippine President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Jr. travels to Washington for bilateral talks with President Trump. The two leaders are expected to discuss trade relations but also focus on growing security tensions with China and how to improve mutual defense cooperation.
Taiwan holds recall elections
Also of note, Taiwan is holding a mass recall vote on July 25 for dozens of Kuomintang (KMT) Party legislators, the Mayor of Hsinchu, and other local elected officials. The recall effort comes in response to a series of reform bills the KMT sought to enact in parliament which were seen as favoring the KMT in expanding its powers in parliament and weakening the powers of presidency. Whatever the outcome, the effort has garnered unexpectedly strong support among voters and is likely to impact the longer-term political outlook.
President Trump to give major speech on AI
Finally, we would note President Trump will be giving a major speech this week on AI. The event, organized by his AI and Crypto Czar David Sacks, is expected to focus on how the US can retain and grow global dominance in the AI space and is likely to include new announcements for how the US government can further support the effort.
Trump then jets off to Scotland on Friday to visit his three golf courses and also meet with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer to discuss trade, Ukraine, and Trump’s upcoming state visit in September.
Global economic and financial radar screen
Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen, the big event for the coming week will be the European (ECB) meeting on interest rates on Thursday. Markets seem to be factoring the ECB will likely pause on rate cuts.
Staying in Europe, the major economic data releases this week include consumer confidence reports out in Germany, France, and Italy. And
is out this week, too.Turning to Asia, Japan releases flash
and the Tokyo this week. And in the U.S., the major data releases include the July . Additionally, we would point out the is going to be hosting a conference on the future of large bank capital standards. Both Fed Chair Jay Powell and Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will be speaking. The conference is a prelude to likely reforms to large bank capital standards and other deregulatory initiatives led by BowmanWashington is currently experiencing the hottest July in recorded history, peppered by what seems like almost daily, massive thunderstorms. But neither beating sun nor driving rain is slowing down the financial regulatory world in the nation’s capital. A lot is going on.
First-ever major legislative cryptocurrency law
First, Congress has just passed, and President Trump signed into law the first-ever major legislative cryptocurrency law, creating new rules for stablecoins. It is a major victory for the crypto industry. Additionally, the House passed on Thursday by a 294-1345 margin much broader crypto legislation which would create a brand-new market structure for crypto.
This comes as news broke President Trump is preparing to sign an executive order soon allowing the $9 trillion U.S. retirement market to invest in crypto as well as gold and private equity. This would include 401(k) plans as well as pensions.
Congress was busy this past week on a number of other fronts of interest and concern to the markets.
Delisting of Chinese firms from U.S. stock exchanges?
We would first note first that the Chairman of the House Select Committee on China, Representative John Moolenaar (R-MI) and the Chair of the Senate Special Committee on Aging, Senator Rick Scott (R-FL) sent letters to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the head of the Public Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB) demanding an urgent briefing on the risks posed to U.S. investors by Chinese companies listed on U.S. stock exchanges. Their letter revives a debate in Congress to force the delisting of Chinese companies (which we would point out have a combined market capitalization of $1.1 trillion). Our view is, barring a major, unseen negative turn in U.S.-China relations, the delisting effort will peter out eventually. But it is a serious pressure point and worth watching.
Merging the SEC with the Commodities Futures Trading Commission?
Meanwhile, Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chair Paul Atkins made headlines on Thursday when he signaled his support for merging the SEC with the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This is not a new idea – indeed, we remember 30+ years ago a raging debate over merging the two which did not go well. But these are different times as the Trump Administration is driving massive structural and budgetary changes to the federal government.
Head the Public Accounting Oversight Board pushed out
Atkins also this past week pushed out the head of the Public Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB), Erica Williams (who had been put there by the Biden Administration). The move had long been expected and is seen as part of a likely consolidation of the PCAOB into the SEC in the near future.
Federal Reserve
Finally, Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell continued to weather considerable criticism for the $1.5 billion renovation of the Fed’s headquarters. In fact, Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL) said Thursday in a post on X that she is “criminally referring” Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to the Justice Department to “investigate perjury” regarding the $2.5 billion renovation project. We do not think this will be taken up by Justice, but it shows how ugly the issue has become. But something a relief valve may have emerged on Friday when the Associated Press reported the most expensive renovations were actually initially pushed for by three Trump appointees on the Commission of Fine Arts which advises the federal government on architecture.
Senate Agriculture to vote on CFTC Chair-nominee
Looking at the week ahead, the Senate Agriculture announced they will (finally) vote on the confirmation on the confirmation of CFTC Chair-nominee Brian Quintenz on Monday. Quintenz then has then get a full confirmation vote by the full Senate. Looking at the Senate calendar – which includes the Senate being out of session for all of August – this suggests to us Quintenz probably will not get that final confirmation vote until late September or sometime in October. The Senate wheels move slowly and the most precious commodity in the world may actually be finding time on the Senate floor schedule to get anything done.
Federal Reserve’s Integrated Review of the Capital Framework for Large Banks Conference
And the big event of the week will be at the Federal Reserve which is holding its “Integrated Review of the Capital Framework for Large Banks Conference.” Fed Chair Powell and Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will both speak. The conference is a prelude to forthcoming major changes to bank capital standards, something big banks have been pushing hard for in recent years.