Frank Kelly’s Geopolitical Week Ahead | August 30, 2026

We have detected that fraudulent individuals are misusing the "DWS" trademark and the names of DWS employees on the internet and social media. These fraudsters are operating fake websites, Facebook pages, WhatsApp groups and Mobile Apps. Please be aware that DWS does not have any Facebook Ambassador profiles or WhatsApp chats. If you receive any unexpected calls, messages, or emails claiming to be from DWS, exercise caution and do not make any payments or disclose personal information. We encourage you to report any suspicious activity to info@dws.com, including any relevant documents and the original fraudulent email. Additionally, if you believe you have been a victim of fraud, please notify your local authorities and take steps to protect yourself.

Frank Kelly’s Geopolitical Week Ahead | August 30, 2026

8/30/2026

Putin and Xi to meet at SCO, the G20 finance ministers and central bank heads gather in North Carolina, and Germany and the EU prepare tough new sanctions on Russia.

Francis (Frank) J. Kelly

Founder & Managing Partner, Fulcrum Macro Advisors and Senior Political Strategist for DWS

G20 finance ministers and central bank heads gather in North Carolina
Putin and Xi to meet at SCO
Germany and the EU prepare tough new sanctions on Russia
Global economic and financial radar screen

Goodbye, August (and Summer) 2026 – it seems we hardly got to know you. From our perspective, this has been one of the busiest and most intense summers in memory. And from what we can see, looking out over the next six months, it is not going to slow down one bit. This coming week, there are two big events markets need to focus on – one in North Carolina and the other almost 7,000 miles away in Kyrgyzstan.

G20 finance ministers and central bank heads gather in North Carolina
The first is the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Ministerial in Asheville, North Carolina on Monday and Tuesday. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is chairing the meetings and the major themes will be growth, trade imbalances, and Iran sanctions. A number of Wall Street CEOs and Fortune 100 CEOs are expected to be in attendance on the sidelines for meetings with officials.

Look for Bessent to push the G20 to support the Trump Administration’s recently announced “D-Day” sanctions on Iran in a bid to build a multi-nation coalition focused on cutting off Iran’s economic lifeline.

Additionally, Bessent will be talking about growth issues and the overall strength of the U.S. economy as part of Trump Administration messaging in advance of the November mid-terms.

Putin and Xi to meet at SCO
While this is going on, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) will hold its 25th Heads of State meeting in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan. Among the attendees will be Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.

The primary goals of the meeting are ambitious: Markets should watch for the signing of the Bishkek Declaration 2026. Among the goals of the Declaration is the expanded use of national currencies within the SCO bloc to circumvent U.S. and EU financial systems, broad pledges to build greater intra-energy systems, and possibly finalizing a long-sought-after SCO Development Bank to service the bloc’s economic growth.

On the sidelines of the Summit, Putin and Xi are expected to meet one-on-one. Paramount for Putin is finalizing with Xi the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline project. The pipeline – estimated to be 1,615 miles long and valued at $14 billion – would provide 50 billion cubic meters of natural gas to China. But for a variety of reasons and to the great frustration of Putin, it has been put on hold multiple times since discussions about the project began in 2006.

Additionally, we are likely to see sideline meetings between Putin and possibly Xi with Iran’s President Pezeshkian. Interestingly, Xi is then traveling from the SCO to Egypt – his first visit there in ten years – for talks on bilateral trade and security issues in the Middle East (firmly showing China’s determination to be a major player in any future peace deals and the rapidly reshaping political architecture of the region).

Germany and the EU prepare tough new sanctions on Russia
Also this week, we are watching for an announcement from German Chancellor Friedrich Merz blaming Russia for an attempted explosive drone attack at the Leipzig Airport last month. Merz is expected to announce significant new sanctions on Russia that will reportedly go hand in hand with new EU sanctions (which may be announced at an EU Foreign Ministers meeting in Ireland on Tuesday). It will be a significant new escalation of tensions between the EU and Russia but it is coming for a reason: Russian hybrid attacks across the EU targeting critical underwater infrastructure, cyber-attacks, jamming of GPS for commercial airliners, sabotage of critical infrastructure, etc. have significantly increased in the last year, as outlined in a recently published Congressional Research Report.

Global economic and financial radar screen
Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen, the big events this week for markets – aside from the G20 Finance/Central Bank Ministerial and what comes out of the SCO Summit – will be the U.S. August jobs report on Friday.

Other major U.S. reports out this week include the JOLTS (job openings and labor turnover survey) report and August ISM manufacturing index on Tuesday, the Fed’s Biege Book and ADP Private Payrolls on Wednesday, and Services numbers on Thursday.
The Bank of Canada meets on interest rates on Wednesday, trade data is out on Thursday, and the Canadian labor force survey for August is out on Friday.
In Europe, flash August consumer price indexes (CPI) for Germany are on Monday and for Italy and the Eurozone on Tuesday. Germany also reports July retail sales on Tuesday and factory orders on Friday. We will also see Eurozone producer price indexes (PPI) on Thursday. Markets are closed in the UK on Monday for bank holiday.
Moving to Asia, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets on interest rates Wednesday. China reports Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) on Monday while Japan releases July retails sales and industrial production figures on Monday. Australia reports Q2 GDP on Wednesday.

Additional resources

Francis (Frank) J. Kelly

Frank is the Founder and Managing Partner of Fulcrum Macro Advisors, a political risk advisory firm based in Washington, DC. He is the senior political strategist for DWS.

Important Information

The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of Frank Kelly as of the date of this publication and may not come to pass.

This information is subject to change at any time, based on market and other conditions and should not be construed as a recommendation of any specific security.

DWS does not intend to promote a particular outcome to the U.S. election (or other countries’ elections) due to take place. Readers should, of course, vote in the election as they personally see fit.

Any mentions of specific properties or securities are for illustrative purposes only and should not be considered a recommendation.

Cryptocurrencies and blockchain (the technology that supports crypto) have distinct risks that can include: the physical custody of crypto-currency, (theft, loss or destruction of key(s) to access the blockchain), lack of regulation, cybersecurity incidents, new and untested technology and its reliance on the Internet.

For Investors in Canada: No securities commission or similar authority in Canada has reviewed or in any way passed upon this document or the merits of the securities described herein and any representation to the contrary is an offence. This document is intended for discussion purposes only and does not create any legally binding obligations on the part of DWS Group. Without limitation, this document does not constitute an offer, an invitation to offer or a recommendation to enter into any transaction. When making an investment decision, you should rely solely on the final documentation relating to the transaction and not the summary contained herein. DWS Group is not acting as your financial adviser or in any other fiduciary capacity with respect to this proposed transaction. The transaction(s) or products(s) mentioned herein may not be appropriate for all investors and before entering into any transaction you should take steps to ensure that you fully understand the transaction and have made an independent assessment of the appropriateness of the transaction in the light of your own objectives and circumstances, including the possible risks and benefits of entering into such transaction. You should also consider seeking advice from your own advisers in making this assessment. If you decide to enter into a transaction with DWS Group you do so in reliance on your own judgment. The information contained in this document is based on material we believe to be reliable; however, we do not represent that it is accurate, current, complete, or error free. Assumptions, estimates and opinions contained in this document constitute our judgment as of the date of the document and are subject to change without notice. Any projections are based on a number of assumptions as to market conditions and there can be no guarantee that any projected results will be achieved. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The distribution of this document and availability of these products and services in certain jurisdictions may be restricted by law. You may not distribute this document, in whole or in part, without our express written permission.

111479-1 (08/2027)

This website is intended to be a general communication and is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only. None of the content should be viewed as a suggestion that you take or refrain from taking any action nor as a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature or other such purpose. Your use of this website indicates that you agree with the intended purpose. Prior to making any investment or financial decision, you should seek individualized advice from a personal financial, tax, and other professionals who are able to provide advice in the context of your particular financial situation.

War, terrorism, sanctions, economic uncertainty, trade disputes, public health crises and related geopolitical events have led and, in the future, may lead to significant disruptions in US and world economies and markets, which may lead to increased market volatility and may have significant adverse effects on the fund and its investment.

Obtain a prospectus
Carefully consider the fund's investment objectives, risk factors, charges and expenses before investing. This and other information can be found in the fund's prospectus. To obtain a mutual fund summary prospectus, if available, or prospectus, call (800) 728-3337 or download one here. To obtain an ETF prospectus call (844) 851-4255 or download one here. To obtain the RREEF Property Trust prospectus, download one here. Read the prospectus carefully before investing.

Investing involves risk including loss of principal. Stocks may decline in value. Bond investments are subject to interest-rate, credit, liquidity, and market risks to varying degrees. When interest rates rise, bond prices generally fall. You cannot invest directly in an index. Credit risk refers to the ability of an issuer to make timely payments of principal and interest. Investing in derivatives entails special risks relating to liquidity, leverage and credit that may reduce returns and/or increase volatility. Foreign investing involves greater and different risks than investing in US companies, including currency fluctuations, less liquidity, less developed or less efficient trading markets, lack of comprehensive company information, political instability and differing auditing and legal standards. Emerging markets tend to be more volatile and less liquid than the markets of more mature economies, and generally have less diverse and less mature economic structures and less stable political systems than those of developed countries. Funds investing in a single industry, country or in a limited geographic region generally are more volatile than more diversified funds. Performance of a fund may diverge from that of an underlying index due to operating expenses, transaction costs, cash flows, use of sampling strategies or operational inefficiencies. There are additional risks associated with investing in high-yield bonds, aggressive growth stocks, non-diversified/concentrated funds and small- and mid-cap stocks which are more fully explained in the prospectuses, as applicable. An investment in any fund should be considered only as a supplement to a complete investment program for those investors willing to accept the risks associated with that fund. Please read the applicable prospectus for more information.

Shares of exchange traded funds (ETFs) are bought and sold at market price (not NAV) throughout the day on the Fund’s Primary Listing Exchange. There can be no assurance that an active trading market for shares of a fund will develop or be maintained. Transactions in shares of ETFs will result in Brokerage commissions and will generate tax consequences. There are risks associated with investing, including possible loss of principal.

Shares of ETFs may be sold throughout the day on the exchange through any brokerage account. However, shares may only be purchased and redeemed directly from the funds by authorized participants in very large creation/redemption units. There is no assurance that an active trading market for shares of an ETF will develop or be maintained.

The brand DWS represents DWS Group GmbH & Co. KGaA and any of its subsidiaries such as DWS Distributors, Inc., which offers investment products, or DWS Investment Management Americas, Inc. and RREEF America L.L.C., which offer advisory services.

Xtrackers ETFs ("ETFs") are managed by DBX Advisors LLC (the "Adviser"), and distributed by ALPS Distributors, Inc. (“ALPS”). The Adviser is a subsidiary of DWS Group GmbH & Co. KGaA, and is not affiliated with ALPS.

XtrackersTM is a trademark of DWS Group. All other trademarks, servicemarks or registered trademarks are the property of their respective owners. Your use of this site signifies that you accept our Terms & Conditions of Use.