The United States at 250 Years: hard work, grit, and a bright future ahead

As we close in on the celebration of the United States’ 250^th birthday on July 4^th, I find myself – as a political analyst for DWS – in a wonderfully unique position. I have met so many extraordinary people as I crisscross the country and travel abroad for client meetings. Each meeting is a learning experience and an opportunity to make new friends.

If I could identify one constant in all my meetings by and large, it is the profound sense of hope inherent in people all over the U.S. Even through the roughest and downright scariest of times (the Great Financial Crisis of 2008 and COVID) I found that despite enormous difficulties, people kept their chins up because they believed there were better days ahead if they just kept at it, worked hard, and took care of their friends and families.

Now, as we prepare for this momentous July 4^th, we face a number of challenging and confusing circumstances geopolitically and domestically. The Iran War, the ongoing Ukraine War, trade wars, rising instability in Cuba, economic worries – the list is long.

But from where I sit here in Washington, D.C., I see not just better days ahead. Indeed, extraordinary decades ahead. What follows are observations and predictions which I think support my view.

• Global oligarchs and dictatorships are struggling to survive as democracy thrives: From Russia to Iran and even China, countries that have either smothered democratic growth or never let it take hold are, in my view, struggling. A perfect example: Russia is, incredibly, now finding itself on an increasingly shaky backfoot with its war on Ukraine, losing territory and facing regular (and unprecedented) drone attacks in Moscow, St. Petersburg, and other major industrial centers as far as 1,000 kilometers away from Ukraine. The price of gasoline has spiked in recent months. Wait times to buy gasoline can be anywhere from 20 minutes to four hours. And 53 Russian regions have imposed restrictions on how much gasoline and diesel private individuals can buy, with limits set at 50 liters in 18 regions. Keep in mind Russia ranks 2^nd globally in oil production, just behind Saudi Arabia.
  
  Similarly, Iran is in many ways on a knife’s-edge in terms of the current regime surviving. When Iranians took to the streets in January to protest severe economic conditions, the government killed an estimated 30,000 – 40,000 of them (and continues to target those who complain). Iran is now a military-controlled dictatorship which in the years to come, will be increasingly difficult to hold in place.
  
  I believe China is struggling, too, with President Xi Jinping’s re-imposition of strict government control over most industries and a determined policy of relying on exports to sustain the economy. And clearly, President Xi has a problem with his military leadership. Since 2022, 36 generals and lieutenant generals have been officially purged by Xi. But that's just the officially confirmed number — 65 additional officers are missing or potentially purged based on their absence from important meetings they were expected to attend, bringing the total of confirmed and potential purges to a staggering 101 generals. This includes the purge of 56 deputy theater commanders which has culled the pool of officers eligible to lead one of the five theater commands by more than 33% (and puts in serious doubt China’s ability to launch an invasion of Taiwan).

• The U.S. elections in 2026 and 2028 - democracy in America works and will continue to work: I never take sides politically when analyzing what is going on in Washington, D.C. But there is no denying that virtually every major political and regulatory institution running our nation has been faced with unprecedented challenges – not just by the Trump Administration but by a variety of political groups and movements over the last 10-plus years. And what has the impact been? From my perspective, the Presidency, Congress, the Federal Courts, and most regulatory agencies have survived, perhaps modified for the better. For a democracy to survive, “stress testing” its institutions is both healthy and necessary.
  
  We will have our national mid-term elections in November and, yes, there will be a lot of yelling and screaming and challenges in the courts, etc. (It’s important to note that there always has been since the founding fathers.)  But I guarantee you one thing: A 119th Congress will conclude on January 3, 2027, and the 120^th Congress will be sworn in on January 4^th and will get to work immediately on a host of new legislative challenges and opportunities. And we will elect and swear in a new President of the United States in January 2029.

• The technological revolution is being led by the U.S. and other democracies and they will be the ultimate winners: AI is changing our lives on a daily basis. Yes, there is growing concern about the impact of AI on our workers and even our safety. (How many times have we heard “The Terminator” references?) But according to multiple data sources I have been looking at, AI coming online is so far leading to minimal job losses. And research suggests AI is currently being deployed to help workers, as opposed to eliminating their roles. It is a crude and imperfect comparison, but I wonder if in the years ahead we will regard AI like we do mobile phones today – an indispensable tool we all utilize for the purpose of improving productivity.
  
  

  Who is Using AI At Work?

  ^{Source: Fulcrum Macro Advisors, Gallup}

  The concern I hear most from clients is China’s race to achieve AI supremacy. True, China is doing phenomenal things in the AI space, but I believe their motives are very different than those of the U.S. I would point to recent news that tech JD.com founder Richard Liu is preparing for 700,000 robots – all directed by AI – doing gig work, such as deliveries. On first blush, that defines the exact fear many people have about AI and robotics. But when you look at the demographic spiral taking place in China, it’s only fitting that Liu and other business leaders are planning for a massive increase in robots. There simply will not be workers in 25 to 75 years as the Chinese population is on a trajectory of going from 1.4 billion people to 400 – 600 million by 2100.

  While AI presents a threat to oligarchies and dictatorships, for all democracies it offers a revolution in education. Students will be equipped to design entire study programs, one with world-wide reach in terms of resources and data. And I will predict, instead of alienating students by making it a one-on-one experience, it will instead result in students coming together to discuss and debate what they have learned and where their studies should take them.

• The growing healthcare revolution – We are experiencing an extraordinary surge in medical research breakthroughs improving the lives of Americans every day. The use of GLPs for weight loss and weight control is now becoming a ubiquitous part of our lives. One in seven Americans uses one of these drugs and one in five has been on them at some point. Quite simply, we are becoming healthier by the day. And the spin-off benefits of GLPs are leading to lower drug costs as we become healthier. Add to this, with the use of AI in medical research we are seeing new and exciting breakthroughs in treating pancreatic cancer and other stubborn cancers such as multiple myeloma, various blood cancers, Alzheimer’s, and high cholesterol levels. Quite simply, we are becoming healthier by the day.

Two Big Challenges Ahead

But the U.S. has two enormous challenges that are coming at our country fast. The fiscal debt and potentially the coming demise of Social Security.

In terms of the national debt, the numbers are grim: Total federal debt was $39 trillion as of April 2026, up 36% from 2019. As of June 3, 2026, gross national debt sat at $39.20 trillion, up $2.99 trillion just from a year earlier. At the current pace, it's on track to hit $40 trillion by around September 23, 2026. Debt as a share of GDP was 123% as of Q4 2025.

^{Source: Fulcrum Macro Advisors, General Accountability Office}

As for Social Security, it is going to be bankrupt by 2032 according to a recent report by the Trustees of the Social Security Administration.*  Congress will have to take some intermediate action between now and then to alleviate the pressure – most likely raising the retirement age and raising Social Security taxes.  And the idea of means testing to determine if wealthier Americans even need Social Security benefits will be debated.

For too long, Congress (and let’s be honest, the American people who elect Congress – we are all responsible here) has never been serious about fixing either of these enormous drains on our society. We as Americans will be forced to make some tough decisions in order to deal with both issues.

But we have dealt with tougher challenges over these past 250 years – a Civil War, two World Wars, financial and economic crises and depressions, and health crises like COVID and the Spanish Flu. If there is one thing I am confident about, and which has been the hallmark of our great country for 250 years, it is the intensity of American ingenuity and determination to overcome obstacles, find solutions to problems and move forward with even greater resolve. Here’s to a very bright and prosperous future for our children, our grandchildren, and for many generations to come. Happy Birthday, America!

^{* Source: Social Security and Medicare Boards of Trustees (2026), Status of the Social Security and Medicare Programs: A Summary of the 2026 Annual Reports, U.S. Social Security Administration. www.ssa.gov}